-Caveat Lector- <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/"> </A> -Cui Bono?- Missile Defense Test Planned Success Could Help Decide Fate of Pentagon Program The test-firing of this North Korean Taepo Dong 1 missile in August 1998 has been cited as evidence of a growing ballistic missile threat to the United States By Barbara Starr ABCNEWS.com W A S H I N G T O N, Jan. 11 — Next week, the Pentagon will attempt one of its most ambitious efforts ever — testing a U.S. weapon under development to see if it can shoot down a potential enemy missile 100 miles above the Earth. This results of the test — to be conducted next Tuesday, weather permitting — are critical to President Clinton’s decision, expected mid-year, on whether to build a system of 100 interceptor missiles to defend the United States against a limited ballistic missile attack. North Korea, Iran, India and Pakistan are all developing ballistic missiles. There is also continuing concern about accidental or unauthorized launches by Russia, and the future intentions of China. These are the only two countries, besides the United States, that currently possess operational intercontinental ballistic missiles. Under the law, if Clinton decides to authorize the deployment, the system would have to be in place within five years. The test “is designed to give the president the technological information that he needs to make a decision on deployment of national missile defense this summer” says Pentagon spokesman Kenneth Bacon. Fueling a New Arms Race? The test flight of the so-called National Missile Defense program will take place above the western Pacific Ocean. This will be the second attempted intercept of a target missile for the program — but it will be the first time a highly realistic test is conducted. The first intercept test, conducted in October, was successful, but many of elements were pre-programmed. This time, additional radars and other elements of the program will be made part of the effort. The test is just one step in what continues to be one of the most controversial armaments programs ever. It is projected to cost more than $10 billion to build the missiles, launchers and radars to defend all 50 states against a limited attack. The program has largely evolved due to political pressure in Congress from conservative Republican elements who believe there is a looming threat. But there is growing concern that the U.S. plans to build a national missile defense system may spark a new arms race — forcing Russia and China to build new offensive missiles that could be readily launched and overwhelm a U.S. defense. Moscow already has been testing its own new missiles. The United States may have to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty if it in fact builds the system and places it in Alaska without some additional agreement from Moscow. “It is exactly the concern that we are about to launch a new arms race that has the Chinese and the Russians upset,” says Joseph Cirincione, a missile expert with the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The French, the British, the Germans — they are all apoplectic at what the U.S. is about to do.” Politics and Payment Problems Cirincione believes the issue will grow only more politicized as the election season continues. “Republicans are hoping this will be a wedge issue for them in the presidential campaign of 2000, one that will expose the Democrats as being weak on defense,” says Cirincione. But CIA estimates say it is unclear just when the real threat will emerge. The CIA had believed, for example, that the North Korean Taepo Dong missile could pose a threat within a decade — especially after a test in August 1998. But recent satellite imagery of the Taepo Dong launch site in North Korea shows that it is a fairly primitive operation — and CIA officials now believe that Pyongyang’s economic problems may have slowed down its missile development efforts. International politics and arms control aside, building a national missile defense will be a drain on the defense budget. All of the major presidential contenders have expressed political support for the effort — no one has said how they would pay for it. Pentagon officials say President Clinton may ask Congress next month for a $2.2 billion increase in the 2001 budget to help pay for the program — bringing the total, projected price tag to more than $12 billion. Barbara Starr covers the Pentagon for ABCNEWS. SEARCH ABCNEWS.com FOR MORE ON … In This Series North Korea's Launch Matters CIA Says Missile Threat is Very Real Future of Warfare: Star Wars Lives Russia Warns Against Missile Defenses Weapons, Missiles Are Proliferating http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/world/DailyNews/missiledefense000111.html Copyright ©2000 ABC News Internet Ventures. Click here for Terms of Use and Privacy Policy and Internet Safety Information applicable to this site. <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soap-boxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. 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