-Caveat Lector-   <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">
</A> -Cui Bono?-

Washington Times-February 29, 2000

China's cashing in on Clinton

Frank Gaffney Jr.

     Once upon a time, a mother fatuously watching her
uncoordinated son in a parade with his military unit was heard to
declare: "Look, everybody's out of step but Johnnie."
Increasingly, a similar myopia seems to be afflicting the
Clinton-Gore administration with respect to China.

     President Clinton is evidently oblivious to an ominous new
reality: Beijing appears to have concluded that there is a window
of opportunity for bringing Taiwan to heel.

     For the next 10 months, the White House will be occupied by
a man who has accepted campaign contributions from Chinese agents
of influence; a man who has formally, if ignominiously, embraced
Beijing's line on its sovereignty over 22 million democratic
Taiwanese.

     The alarming prospect is that the Chinese Politburo
calculates it is far more likely to get away with murder � or
more precisely, what might be called, "stateicide" � on Mr.
Clinton's watch than on that of any of his prospective
successors. Even Vice President Al Gore might prove less reliable
from Beijing's point of view than the man he currently serves.
Hence, we appear to have entered a period of particular danger,
when an attack by China against Taiwan seems a distinct
possibility, if not actually a probability.

     Of course, this ominous conclusion has only been reinforced
by China's threat to its "renegade province" issued last week in
an 11,000-word manifesto � released, not coincidentally, in the
immediate aftermath of the departure from Beijing of President
Clinton's friend and Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott and
his high-level delegation.

     As the Pulitzer Prize-winning syndicated columnist William
Safire observed in the New York Times, China may have been
encouraged to take this step by the Clinton-Gore team's feckless
response to Vladimir Putin's ruthless bid to consolidate his
political position. Mr. Safire correctly suggests that Taiwan may
be seen by a Chinese government seeking legitimacy to be every
bit as convenient a target as Chechnya was for the new leader of
Russia.

     Even more relevant to China's calculations than the
kid-glove treatment the United States is giving China's new-found
"strategic partner" � Russia � however, is the message being sent
by the administration when Mr. Clinton promises to "do whatever
it takes" to secure congressional approval of permanent trading
status for China. Beijing sees him muting concerns about its
latest, explicit threat to Taiwan. They can only be heartened by
his actions on three other fronts:


     * Mr. Clinton insists he will veto the Taiwan Security
Enhancement Act (TSEA) � legislation designed to improve
U.S.-Taiwan military ties and facilitate the transfer to Taipei
of defensive equipment needed to offset the growing threat posed
to that democratic nation by China's aggressive build-up of
ballistic missiles and other offensive hardware. Especially
urgently needed are the sort of flexible anti-missile defenses
Taiwan has sought to purchase aboard U.S.-built Aegis fleet air
defense ships. (Interestingly, the chief of naval operations,
Adm. Jay Johnson, has just written Secretary of Defense William
S. Cohen calling for the fullest possible utilization of these
ships to defend not only U.S. allies and forces overseas, but the
people and territory of the United States as well.)

     The TSEA passed the House a few weeks ago by a veto-proof
margin. In the wake of China's latest belligerence, the Senate
should follow suit, if its leadership will bring the bill up for
a vote. Such an action takes on all the greater importance in
underscoring U.S. commitment to the security of Taiwan insofar as
the executive branch's calculated ambiguity on this point is only
feeding the perception in ruling Chinese circles that an attack
on Taiwan will � at least until November � be essentially
cost-free.

     * The Clinton administration has announced its intention to
launch a campaign to resuscitate the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty (CTBT) rejected last October by a majority of the Senate.
A recent op-ed article in The Washington Post by former President
Jimmy Carter signaled that this campaign will exploit pressure
generated by an international conference in April called to
review the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. On that occasion,
China and its friends in the Third World can be expected to cavil
that the failure of the United States to ratify the CTBT will
prompt many nations to "go nuclear" despite their treaty
obligations not to do so.

     As a recent symposium sponsored by the Center for Security
Policy made clear, however, the relatively slow pace with which
proliferation has proceeded to date actually owes more to the
credibility of the U.S. nuclear deterrent than any arms-control
accord. The Senate was right in deciding that the CTBT would
grievously erode the safety, reliability and effectiveness of
that deterrent � an outcome all the more ill-advised in light of
nuclear-modernization efforts by China, Russia and other
dangerous "rogue" states.

     Unfortunately, the lack of U.S. nuclear testing since 1992
has also contributed to uncertainty about the adequacy of steps
to protect conventional military gear from the effects of
high-energy, electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks. This
vulnerability has not escaped the attention of the Chinese
military. China's Shanghai Jiefang Ribao newspaper recently
revealed that Chinese military strategists seek to accelerate the
development of EMP bombs or missiles for the purpose of
destroying, among other targets, U.S. aircraft carrier fleets.

     * Mr. Clinton has rejected appeals from champions of human
rights, religious freedom and national security that he block the
impending penetration of the U.S. stock market by a subsidiary of
China National Petroleum Company (CNPC). This state-owned
enterprise's involvement in Sudan has been determined by the U.S.
and Canadian governments to be materially supporting genocidal
attacks by the Islamic extremist regime in Khartoum against
Christians and others in Sudan's oil-rich southern regions. As a
result, a pending $5 billion to $7 billion initial public
offering by CNPC's PetroChina holding company on the New York
Stock Exchange could soon be allowing huge quantities of
unwitting U.S. investors' funds to be put to unacceptable uses by
communist China and/or Sudan.

     In each of these areas, the Clinton-Gore administration is
clearly out of step with U.S. security and other interests. The
outstanding question is: How high a price will we � and other
freedom-loving people � pay for its incompetence, if not its
malfeasance?


     Frank J. Gaffney Jr. is president of the Center for Security
Policy and a columnist for The Washington Times.


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       Shalom, A Salaam Aleikum, and to all, A Good Day.
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