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</A> -Cui Bono?-

---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2000 13:47:54 -0500 (EST)
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: ALTERED EVIDENCE by Jim Sanders ==> A Comment & Some
Speculation


I normally would have gotten around to reading a book like
Altered Evidence before now, but this has been a heck of a winter
with putting a contract on a new home being constructed in the
SFO Bay Area (East Bay -- East Dublin), getting the house in the
Dallas area ready for sale, and the usual tax busy season
demands.

I wish I had read it when it first came out in very late 1999.
Anyone interested in the loss of TWA800 will be really interested
in this book.  Amazon has it for $14 (plus whatever shipping
charges there are).  AIM has it for sale (I believe) at a
somewhat lower price ($12.95?).

The book tells two related stories --

1) a really good update on the evidence of a government cover-up
in connection with the loss of TWA800 (and per force, information
supporting the claim that one, probably two, missiles, brought
the aircraft down, missiles that could have come from US Navy
vessels in the area).

2) a detailed accounting (with a good historical/legal background
as well) of the events leading up to the indictments of Jim
Sanders and his wife, the pre-trial maneuvering, the trial
itself, and the imposition of sentence.

There is also an excellent chapter of Altered Evidence in which
Sanders shreds many of the factual claims made by Patricia
Milton, an AP reporter who recently wrote In The Blink of an Eye,
a book that espouses the government line on the crash.

I found a couple of items in the book of particular personal
interest (in addition to the rewarding experience of reading the
book generally).

In connection with the evidence of a second missile hit
(detonating more forward and lower relative to TWA800 than the
other missile, which itself passed through the fuselage forward
of the right wing, moving upward from right to left), Sanders
makes the point that the Navy could have been expected to have a
nearby launching platform dedicated to attempting to shoot down
the missile being tested in case the test missile guided in a
direction other than the one planned (presumably southward within
W-105).

This observation struck me because I made a similar comment to
CDR Donaldson (TWA800.com) some months ago without any knowledge
that Sanders was going to make the same point.

I also indicated that the required launch timing and the attack
geometry re the second missile would be such that without a lot
of luck and achieving a very optimistic low launch reaction
interval, the second missile would end up guiding on TWA800
rather than the first missile since the second missile would
likely not be able to intercept the first missile before it
either hit or closely approached TWA800.

The ideal position for the location of the vessel launching what
Sanders terms "the back stop missile" would have been between the
first missile's launching platform and the area needing the most
protection.

This would place the "protective" launching platform to the north
of the other launching platform, closing to the southern shore of
Long Island and near or under the main E-W flight corridors
there.

Sanders wonders why the first missile (the test missile) took a
northerly trajectory rather than a southerly one.

One obvious possible explanation (of several) is that the
guidance instructions loaded into the missile real time had an
error (perhaps as simple at the difference between the true
bearing of the target at the time of launch versus its relative
bearing (relative to the bow of the lunching vessel) if the
launching vessel were crusing slowly back and forth on a more of
less E-W line.

Another possibility is that the launching platform engaged the
southbound target too soon, generating an intercept solution for
a location in the vicinity of TWA800 (the targeet presumably
being a modified BGM Firebee or similar drone launched southbound
from a position near the southern shore of Long Island (from an
aircraft like a C-130 or a P-3 -- I prefer the latter -- so
equipped).

The above is aggressive speculation, but it would not be unusual
for the missile being tested to acquire the much larger object,
such as TWA800 if, contrary to plan, a much larger object came
within angular range of the weapons sensors.

More speculation would suggest that the intercept missile was a
modernized version of the Sea Sparrow BPDMS, possibly carried (as
a two-pack) in the VLS of an Aegis Cruiser or DDG-51 Class Burke
destroyer.  That is, a significantly smaller weapon than the test
missile.

Given some of the other evidence that has surfaced in the
unoffiial investigations, it is perhaps more possible that the
"backstop" missile was a modern Stinger missile instead of a Sea
Sparrow launched from the ship in question (though a Stinger's
chances of intercepting the test missile in an emergency would be
even less than that of a Sea Sparrow unless the Stinger launch
platform was quite close tot he ground track of TWA800, a modern
Stinger has the range, IMHO, to reach TWA 800).

Sanders expresses the possibility that the launch platform for
the test missile was a submarine.  Sanders apparently likes the
SSN-21 Seawolf as the launching platform for the test missile,
but I doubt that could be corret since Seawolf, the lead ship of
its class was not commissioned until July 1997
 or so; also in these situations, one would not want to tie up
the lead ship of a class -- with lots of operational systems
tests to perform across the board -- with such a narrow mission.

(Within this admittedly speculative scenario) I would prefer an
SSN-688 of SSN-688I class submarine (Losa Angeles or Improved Los
Angeles Class).  They are relatively numerous and relatively
modern and would be the preferred platform (cf. SSN021 even if
she were available) for tests of a CEC missile (the speculative
BQM Firebee would be simulating a stealthy or semi-stelathy
cruise missile with th object of the exercise being its
destructions by the CEC systemts employed on the ships,
submariines, and aircraft in the exercise area).

The other point that Sanders makes that struck me personally:
Though he speculates that the launch platform for the CEC
(Co-operative Engagement Capability) system (guiding the missile)
was a submarine, he does not appear to understand why a submarine
(heretofore a ridiculous vessel to mount anti-aircraft missiles)
would make an excellent launch platform in the CEC context.

A sub-launched anti-air weapon in the CEC environment would
typically get all its targeting data from other CEC equipped
platforms, such as surface ships and, more importantly, aircraft.

That data would be sent to the sub, presumably proceding as
covertly as possible at low speed at a location inshore of the
battle fleet (or troopships) being targeted by the enemy cruise
missile and on the anticipated threat axis.  All that would need
to break the surface would be a small (semi-stealthy) radio
antenna -- much smaller than a periscope.

Unless the enemy was possessed and was operating a relatively
sophisticated ASW capability, the submarine (submerged except for
2-3 feet of narrow antenna) would be hard to detect -- certainly
much harder to detect than a surface vessel.

I note in passing that if the Navy screwed two things up -- what
Sanders refers to as the "backstop missile" as well as the
(larger) test missile BOTH intercepted TWA800 -- there would be
much more government incentive for a cover up than one missile
going astray under vey unusual circumstances.

Futhermore, though the supersonic passage of the test missile
(instrument package not a warhead assumed in place, but a sizable
missile, perhaps a modified SM-3 that fits nicely in the VLS
tubes of one of the SSN-688 classes modified to carry a VLS
system -- originally for cruise and anti-shipping missiles)
through the fuselage at the point in question would very likely
have brought down TWA800 by iteslf, any small chance the aircraft
had (in this speculative scenario) was eliminated a coupla
seconds later by the detonation of the "backstop missile's"
warhead near the underside of the fuselage in the area of the
forward landing gear.

While the government does have legitimate security interests in
protecting a potential nenemy from acquiring useful information
about the US's emerging CEC capability (both re cruise missiles,
sea-skimming anti-ship missiles, and theatre ballistic missiles),
if the general scenario put for ward by people like Jim Sanders
and CDR Donaldson is correct, it's completely obvious that the
cover-up had not one iota to do with national security, but with
protecting various actors in the USG (perhaps, as the situation
evolved, more so those involved in the cover-up rather than those
involved in the shootdown itself which was doubtlessly a
negligent -- perhaps grossly negligent -- act, not a criminal
one).

The main thing I can say about the book that is negative:  it
could have used another draft and/or a closer editing.  That
said, it is plenty clear enough and a revelation (even for
someone like me) to read.  The book also refers the reader to a
web site, primarily in connection with the photographs that the
government did not bar Sanders from releasing to the public (many
of the photos he took in connection with his indictment were
barred from public release by the government according to the
book).

Warm regards,
Hugh Sprunt



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  FROM THE DESK OF:                    <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
                      *Mike Spitzer*     <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
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   The Best Way To Destroy Enemies Is To Change Them To Friends
       Shalom, A Salaam Aleikum, and to all, A Good Day.
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