-Caveat Lector- <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/"> </A> -Cui Bono?- > ------------------------------------ > | | > POTENTIAL MAJOR | A s t r o A l e r t | 14 March 2000 at >SOLAR FLARE WARNING| | 03:55 UTC > ----------------- Sun-Earth Alert ------------------- > > Supporting imagery and additional details can be found at: > http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html > > Active sunspot region 8906 is a large sunspot complex now passing the >south-central solar meridian. Recent analysis of the magnetic fields that >make up this region suggest there is a distinct possibility of a major M or X >class solar flare sometime over the next 3 to 5 days. > > The trailer spot complex of this region contains a delta magnetic >configuration where opposite polarity sunspot umbrae are encompassed by a >single penumbra. Strong magnetic field gradients have been measured along the >neutral line that separates these opposite magnetic polarities. The concern >right now is that recent detailed magnetic analysis performed by Mees Solar >Observatory in Hawaii (http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/mees.html) have >revealed significant levels of magnetic shear along this same neutral line. >These factors, when considered together, suggest that there may be >significant levels of pent-up magnetic energy within this region. > > The largest solar flare from Region 8906 observed thus far was a class >M3.6/1B event late in the UTC day of 12 March (if x-rays reach the class >M5.0 level, the flare becomes a major category event). Although there have >been no major levels of activity from this region since its appearance on >the eastern solar limb, recent data supports the idea that a major M or X >class solar flare is very possible over the next several days. The overall >pattern of the magnetic fields near this region are not unlike some in >history which have produced major X-class flares. > > Sunspot Region 8906 is large and complex enough to spawn a major proton >producing solar flare. Such events can affect the health and stability of >satellites in orbit around the Earth and can wipe-out ionospheric >communications through the polar regions of the ionosphere. Although there >has been no hard evidence yet to suggest that Region 8906 is capable of >producing a proton flare, it is at least statistically large and complex >enough to be capable of doing so. > > Any major solar flares that occur will likely be associated with >coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that should be well-directed toward the Earth >over the next 72 hours. Thus far, there have been no significant observed >Earth-directed CMEs from Region 8906. But this could change rapidly if this >region spawns a major flare event. > > Observers with hydrogen-alpha filters should pay close attention to the >region around the trailer spot complex. White-light observers may want to pay >close attention to sunspot group as well, for if a major X-class flare >develops, there is a slight chance it may produce a brief white-light >manifestation of the activity (known as a white-light flare). Although the >odds of such an event occurring are extremely low, they are still worth >considering. Refer to the AstroAlert information available at: >http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html for a map showing the locations where >magnetic instability may be high enough to produce flare activity. > > Observers wishing to make sketches of the evolution of this active >region using projection or other safe sun-filtered methods may like to obtain >a copy of Peter Meadows free Windows software. His software, Helio, can help >you determine the solar coordinates of sunspots or other features of the Sun >from what you see at your telescope. For further information about the >software and much more concerning the Sun, consult the URL: >http://www.meadows3.demon.co.uk. > > >** End of AstroAlert ** <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soap-boxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://home.ease.lsoft.com/archives/CTRL.html http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
