BY JOE RODRIGUEZ
Mercury News Staff Columnist
5/11/2000

Why opening the Mexican border makes obvious sense


ON THE campaign trail in California this week, the most
interesting presidential candidate of them all finally said what
has to be said.

"We'll use all our persuasion and all our talent to bring
together the U.S., Canadian and Mexican governments so that in
five or 10 years, the border is totally open to the free movement
of workers."

The crowd in Bakersfield cheered.

The candidate wasn't Democrat Al Gore or Republican George W.
Bush. ˇPor favor! Even if they wanted an open border, suggesting
one now would frighten too many conservative voters. The
candidate certainly wasn't the Reform Party's Pat Buchanan. The
arch-conservative wants a moratorium on immigration until he
decides who's welcome in America and who's not. ˇNo, gracias!

The candidate was Vicente Fox, the man who has turned the race
for the presidency of Mexico into a real contest against the
party that has ruled for 71 consecutive years.

When I first met Fox a few years ago, he was wearing his
trademark cowboy boots and hat, like the ones he wore while
stumping in California. At 6-foot-5, Fox is as imposing as Big
Al, more cowboy than George W. and more charismatic than
Buchanan, the pundit-politician.

Fox belongs to Mexico's National Action Party, or PAN in Spanish.
His pro-business and open-government platform has found great
appeal among Mexicans living in the United States. To them, an
open border makes obvious sense, but why should it make sense to
you and me?

Because Mexico, Canada and the United States are becoming one
big, integrated North American market and society. In some
cross-border regions, such as the Southwest and Great Lakes,
workers have flowed back and forth for centuries. But now, goods,
capital and workers are flying over the borders and zipping by
the Internet into the interior.

That's the big picture. Here's a littler one, but it's still a
doozy.

THE United States is facing a shortage of skilled and unskilled
labor for the next 20 years. Canada isn't so desperate, but it
also faces labor shortages.

America can't produce enough workers to keep the good times
rolling. Here's why:

The lowest unemployment rates in three decades -- 4.1 percent for
the nation and lower in white-hot economies such as Silicon
Valley's -- mean that every employable adult is working or likely
to find a job soon.

America is aging rapidly. By 2020, the group of workers age 20 to
64 will increase by only 15 percent. The over-65 group will
double.

Not one school in America, not even the lowliest, wants its
children to become dishwashers, maids or janitors. The school
principal who steers students toward grunt work, low wages and
lousy benefits should be fired.

Mexico, meanwhile, has what America and Canada need: a surplus of
young workers willing to leave home for greater opportunities and
earnings.

More work visas for them could have been included in the North
American Free Trade Agreement years ago. After all, goods,
capital and labor are equal players in market economies. Where
one goes the others follow. But NAFTA didn't include labor
because the U.S. negotiators didn't think Congress would open the
border to more Mexicans. They were right.

THE United States and especially California were in an
anti-immigrant mood that had more to do with the nature of
American national identity and loyalty than with economics.

That mood has softened remarkably. A Mexican presidential
candidate just visited California and talked about an open border
without starting a riot. Fox knows the future includes an open
border, and now's the time to start. He may look like a cowboy,
but he ain't dumb.


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       Shalom, A Salaam Aleikum, and to all, A Good Day.
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