Tim Edwards
 The Solar Threat
 http://www2.50megs.com/timedwards/solar.htm

   ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  ALERT!

 July 11: Region 9077 generated a long duration X1.0/2N event peaking at
 13:10 UTC. A very large full halo coronal mass ejection was observed in
 connection with the X1 event. The CME will impact Earth, most likely
 sometime between noon on July 13 and noon on July 14. This could result in
 active to severe storming.

 July 10: Region 9077 produced a long duration major M5.7/2B event peaking
 at 21:42 UTC. Strong type II and IV sweeps were recorded during the major
 flare. A full halo coronal mass ejection was observed in LASCO C3 starting
 at 22:18 UTC. Most of the mass headed off towards the northeast, however,
 there is a possibility for minor or major storming at Earth on July 13 or
 14.


 Stay Tuned!

 Tim Edwards
 The Solar Threat

   ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Current Solar Status:

            Solar X-rays:[Status]
 Geomagnetic Field:[Status]


 [Image] [Image]



 Sunspot Number is 241 for July 13th.

 Yesterday's sunspot number was 281 for July 12th.

 (The predicted number of sunspots for this cycle is 155!)


 24-Hour Solar Activity Forecast:

 Solar activity is expected to remain at high levels for the next 24-48
 hours.
 Expect frequent C-class flares with an isolated chance for a major flare
 from Region 9070.
 Region 9077 will also continue to produce major flares.
 Further C, M and X-class activity is expected over the next 24-48 hours!


 24-Hour Geo-physical Activity Forecast:

 The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to major or severe storm
 levels on July 13-14.

 Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over
 high and upper middle latitudes is very poor.


 Event Probabilities:

 There is a 60-100% probability that effects from a coronal hole could reach
 earth within the next 5 days.

 There is a 60-100% probability that material from a CME is likely to impact
 earth within 96 hours.

 There is a 60-100% probability of either M or X class flares within the
 next 48 hours.


 Related News

 Sun Flare Heads For Earth

 Solar Flare Alert And Solar Storm Warning

 Scientists Issue Alarm Of Intensified Solar Activity Within 12 Days

 Sunstorms Impact China's Telecom Services

 Is NASA Manipulating SOHO/LASCO Images?

 A Brown Dwarf Solar Flare

 Sun Eruption Causes Radio Blackouts


 Click on the URL below to go to The Solar Threat for more detailed
 information and analysis.
 http://www2.50megs.com/timedwards/solar.htm


 Tim Edwards

 The Solar Threat

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