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The Caspian Connection: Pipeline Politics and the Balkan War
Carl Limbacher and Caron Grich
June 9, 1999 What has America accomplished in the Balkans after 70-plus days of
NATO bombardment?
Cease fire negotiations sputter along on a wing and a prayer. And if they are
successful, America will be rewarded with the privilege of contributing 7,000
troops to a force of 50,000 Kosovo "peacekeepers". Tour of duty: indefinite.
Though Bill Clinton's Balkan adventure did much to keep the press distracted
from matters like Chinese nuclear espionage and inconvenient rape charges
(reporters last hit Clinton with a question about Juanita Broaddrick just five
days before he ordered airstrikes on Serbia), it's debatable whether Kosovar
refugees will be better off for all the effort.
Slobodan Milosevic, recently dubbed an official war criminal, will retain power
over Serbia. And NATO may even have to accommodate a Russian presence in
Kosovo, which will only further discourage displaced ethnic Albanians from
returning home.
Not much of a victory. Not much, that is, until one considers another factor
that may have propelled NATO into the Balkans; an incentive which has nothing
to do with humanitarian relief or scandal spin.
NATO's Eyes on the Prize
If President Clinton were to level with the American people, he might just
explain NATO's first hot war by using a variation of his old campaign theme:
"It's the global economy, stupid." Because NATO's entry into the Balkans,
though thus far an abject failure in terms of the mission's ostensible goals,
places the West, and especially Western Europe, on the doorstep of resources so
vast that the move could mean decades worth of economic well-being for member
nations.
Ponder this nearly two year-old observation from the New York Times, reported
when a U.S. security force in the Balkans was only a twinkle in Madeleine
Albright's eye:
"Forget mutual funds, commodity futures and corporate mergers. Forget South
African Diamonds, European currencies and Thai stocks. The most concentrated
mass of untapped wealth known to exist anywhere is in the oil and gas fields
beneath the Caspian (Sea) and lands around it.... The strategic implications of
this bonanza hypnotize Western security planners as completely as the finances
transfix oil executives." (New York Times -- September 21, 1997)
Or this, from a conservative think tank the year before:
"The vast expanses of the former Soviet Union harbor oil and gas riches which
will be crucial to funding the global economy in the next century. The huge oil
reserves, estimated at over 25 billion barrels under the Caspian Sea and in the
central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are similar
to those in Kuwait and larger than those in Alaska's Northern Slope and the
North Sea combined." (Ariel Cohen, Senior Policy Analyst, The Heritage
Foundation - January 25, 1996)
"Control over these energy resources and export routes out of the Eurasian
hinterland is quickly becoming one of the central issues in post Cold War
politics," Cohen added, without noting that Caspian oil played a major role a
pre-Cold War geo-strategic conflict as well. In an attempt to gain control over
access routes to the same oil reserves during World War II, the Third Reich
waged the bloodiest battle ever fought, the siege at Stalingrad.
More recent history shows that war for oil isn't exactly a new concept, even
for America. When the U.S. went to war to chase Saddam Hussein out of Kuwaiti
oil fields in 1991, then-U.S. Secretary of State James Baker was unabashed
about our motives, saying that there were three reasons behind Operation Desert
Storm: "Jobs, jobs and jobs."
Today Kosovo, Tomorrow Azerbaijan
Ever since the break-up of the old Soviet Union, the West has had its eye on
the oil fields of Central Asia. And security for pipelines carrying the crude
out is a priority concern that could make or break billions of dollars already
invested by U.S oil companies like Mobil, Chevron, Amoco and others.
But to get Caspian oil to the trillion petro-dollar market of Western Europe,
planners need alternatives to old pipeline routes that traversed Iran and
Russia. That means development of the huge Eurasian reserves must focus on the
corridor between those two potentially hostile regions.
Almost all roads lead to Baku, Azerbaijan, the Caspian seaport believed to be
sitting on trillions of dollars of untapped crude. 12 energy companies have
entered into a $7.5 billion consortium, the Azerbaijani International Operating
Company (AIOC). Five are U.S. based: Penzoil, Unocal, McDermott and Exxon, and
Amoco, now merged with British Petroleum.
In April the 515 mile Baku-Supsa pipeline opened for business and was hailed by
Azerbajaini officials as a breakthrough because it avoided Russian territory,
thereby adding to Azerbaijan's economic independence. But Baku-Supsa will be
able to handle only 10% of the expected Caspian gusher. The AIOC is considering
two other possible pipeline routes to the West:
The Northern Route: From Baku northwest through the Russian Republic of
Chechnya, to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, where tankers would transport
the oil through the Bosporous and Dardenelle straights to the Agean Sea. (Some
energy experts worry that transport through the unregulated Bosporus passage
would represent a chokepoint for terrorists, with a cutoff of Caspian oil
easily accomplished by sinking a single tanker. Alternative plans include a
detour north across the Black Sea to Burgas, Bulgaria -- where the oil would be
pipelined to Alexandroupolis, Greece along what has been dubbed the Trans-
Balkan Pipeline.)
The Mediterranean Route: From Baku west, skirting Iran through Turkey -- where
Western tankers would collect the oil from Turkish port of Ceyhan. The Baku-
Ceyhan pipeline is the strong favorite of U.S. energy planners.
Undoubtedly, Baku-Ceyhan has its advantages. It avoids some of the risks posed
by warring factions along other pipeline routes. And should, for instance,
Kurdish rebels attempt to disrupt the free flow of oil, NATO member Turkey
could be counted upon to resolve the situation to the West's satisfaction,
especially since Turkey itself would stand to gain hundreds of millions of
dollars in pipeline tolling fees alone.
How a DNC Donor Changed U.S. Pipeline Policy
Some suspect that the Clinton administration staunchly supports the Baku-Ceyhan
route, not so much out of concern over pipeline security -- but because the
Turkish route was initially favored by a major contributor to the Democratic
National Committee, Lebanese oilman Roger Tamraz.
As recently as May 1995, the U.S. took no official position supporting either
the Black Sea, Turkish or other pipeline plans. That month, Tamraz met with NSC
official Shelia Heslin but failed to sell her on his plan to pump oil from Baku
to the Turkish port city of Yumurtalik. Afterwards, Heslin tried to keep Tamraz
out of the White House and away from Clinton.
But throughout the summer and fall of 1995, $195,000 of Tamraz's money made its
way into DNC coffers. That September, the persistent oilman attended two White
House coffees with Clinton on hand. Afterwards, former Clinton Chief of Staff
Mack McLarty arranged for Tamraz to meet with Energy Department officials. By
October, Tamraz's project had the backing of the Clinton State Department.
The pressure brought to bear on Tamraz's behalf was quite impressive,
considering that even with his subsequent donations, he had given a only
$300,000. But for that amount, spare change really for someone in Tamraz's
league, DNC chairman Don Fowler personally chatted up Ms. Heslin on Tamraz's
behalf. Around the same time, even the Clinton CIA began sending Heslin
favorable reports on the Lebanese oilman.
But just as Tamraz seemed to be making headway, the Azerbaijani oil consortium
began to move away from the Turkish route, seeing projects like Tamraz's as too
costly. Falling crude prices throughout the late 90's cooled other larger oil
companies on a Turkish pipeline as well.
Still the Turkish route, Baku-Ceyhan in particular, continued to enjoy strong
American support, despite the fact that by October 1998 the major oil companies
had flat out rejected the plan.
Writing for Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty in May, Michael Lelyveld explained
it this way:
"For several months, the gap between the U.S. government and the oil industry
appeared to be widening....the (Clinton) administration has refused to accept
the industry's rejection and has mounted a determined diplomatic effort to keep
the Baku-Ceyhan scheme alive....The result has been increasing friction and
loss of (U.S.) credibility on the pipeline issue."
One possible reason the U.S. stubbornly clings to the now rejected Turkish
pipeline may be Turkey's ever increasing value as a strategic ally. Before the
peace agreement, there were plans for NATO planes to begin striking Serbia from
Turkish bases like Bandirma and Balikesir. Turkey supplied the U.N. coalition
with its northern air bases for 1991's successful Persian Gulf campaign against
Iraq.
Making Turkey the major Western conduit for the Caspian oil basin jackpot would
help the NATO member evolve from a third world economic backwater to a major
European player. And of course, a significant NATO presence in Turkey would
place Euro-America's enforcers on the doorstep of the Caspian oil fields.
NATO Slips into Caspian Region
"The Clinton administration has also offered the promise of greater U.S.
defense cooperation with Azerbaijan. For example, NATO, through its Partnership
for Peace program, has established the Central Asian Peacekeeping Battalion, or
CENBAT," reports Jofi Joseph in a January 1999 case study on "Pipeline
Politics" for Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and
International Affairs.
"As part of one of the first joint exercises involving American soldiers and
the CENBAT force, 500 members of the U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Division
parachuted into Kazakhstan (Azerbaijan's oil rich neighbor across the Caspian
Sea) after a 23- hour flight from Ft. Bragg. The impressive display powerfully
represented the strategic reach of the U.S.; the Kazakhstan deputy foreign
minister stated, 'Five years ago, no one here could even dream of such things
as American soldiers dropping out of the sky into a remote area of Kazakhstan.'
"
Prof. Joseph adds, "Evolving closer defense ties with Azerbaijan's neighbors
sends a clear signal that the U.S. and NATO are interested in the security of
the region, of which Azerbaijan is one of the most valuable pieces."
Joseph isn't the only one who sees a compelling NATO interest in the Caspian
region. RFE's Michael Lelyveld, says that a U.S. military presence in
Azerbaijan is inevitable, especially as Western leaders continue to expand
NATO's protective umbrella:
"Having said yes to Eastern Europe, the U.S. and NATO may not be able to close
the door on a region that is seen as a strategic prize.... Security for the
planned Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the trans-Caspian gas line may be
impossible without some U.S. role or credible support.....Because of Russia's
role in the region, there may be no power other than the United States, or U.S.
backed organizations, that can serve as a guarantor of peace."
The China Connection
Getting Caspian oil to world markets may be a boon for another big player just
now emerging on the world's economic stage. Here's how the Clinton Energy
Department described China's oil needs just months before the Balkan War began:
"China's economic growth has made it the second largest energy-consuming nation
in the world. This rapid growth has outstripped China's domestic oil production
and, in 1993, China became a net oil importer. Imports currently account for
15% of total consumption, but they are projected to increase to between 40 and
50% of China's consumption by 2020."
China's demand for oil could have a major impact on world markets unless new
reserves are tapped. U.S. oil and gas interests are now the largest investor in
China's petroleum sector. The Clinton Energy and Commerce Departments have
already begun talks in Beijing about new opportunities for oil exploration and
development.
Interestingly enough, Roger Tamraz, the oil pipeline gadfly who pushed the
Clinton administration to get behind a Caspian route through Turkey, turned his
sights eastward when those plans foundered. At last report, Tamraz has the
support of the China National Petroleum Company in new efforts to help Beijing
tap into the Caspian oil jackpot.
Europe's Goals, America's Troops
In April, a new strategic concept was adopted by the NATO alliance at its 50th
anniversary celebration in Washington, D.C.. The new initiative "propels the
U.S. military into unlimited responsibilities for policing a new world order,"
according to syndicated columnist Robert Novak.
One Senator told Novak that the shift in NATO policy is so dramatic that it
might be necessary to submit the revisions to Congress for ratification, since
the move formalizes the new U.S. role as global policeman.
These new responsibilities begin in the Balkans, but where do they lead?
Novak noted that British Prime Minister Tony Blair seemed extraordinarily
enthusiastic about NATO's expanding role; which is a great bargain from Blair's
standpoint if the current division of labor holds. The U.S. is currently
shouldering about 80% of the Balkan war effort today.
Blair regaled the gathering with his own theories about " a new doctrine of
international community." According to Novak, "He made it clear that the West
now recognizes no bar to intervention into the domestic affairs of a sovereign
country." Meanwhile, Clinton sat passively as the Brit outlined their
alliance's new ambitions.
Perhaps the President knew the Prime Minister had said too much, inadvertently
lifting the veil on the West's designs beyond Kosovo -- which may one day lead
all the way to the Caspian Sea.
Return
End<{{
A<>E<>R
Integrity has no need of rules. -Albert Camus (1913-1960)
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking
new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The libertarian therefore considers one of his prime educational
tasks is to spread the demystification and desanctification of the
State among its hapless subjects. His task is to demonstrate
repeatedly and in depth that not only the emperor but even the
"democratic" State has no clothes; that all governments subsist
by exploitive rule over the public; and that such rule is the reverse
of objective necessity. He strives to show that the existence of
taxation and the State necessarily sets up a class division between
the exploiting rulers and the exploited ruled. He seeks to show that
the task of the court intellectuals who have always supported the State
has ever been to weave mystification in order to induce the public to
accept State rule and that these intellectuals obtain, in return, a
share in the power and pelf extracted by the rulers from their deluded
subjects.
[[For a New Liberty: The Libertarian Manifesto, Murray N. Rothbard,
Fox & Wilkes, 1973, 1978, p. 25]]
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