-Caveat Lector-
October 15, 2000
No Room for Error in Weeks Before the Vote
By RICHARD L. BERKE
CHICAGO, Oct. 13 - The presidential race is so agonizingly tight
for both sides that it has set off a lively debate over whether
Vice President Al Gore or Gov. George W. Bush should dare reach
for something dramatic to try to pull ahead in the next three
weeks or play it safe and hope for the best on Election Day.
Top strategists, politicians and party officials in both
campaigns are so anxious and jittery that many of them readily
acknowledge they could lose.
The bloodshed in the Middle East and the tumult on Wall Street
have only compounded the uncertainty, with strategists saying the
contest has been buffeted by events that could enhance or harm
the prospects of either candidate ó or have no impact at all.
"Any false move could cost one of these guys the presidency of
the United States," said Senator Robert G. Torricelli, Democrat
of New Jersey. "The pressure must be unbearable. There's no
margin for error in this race."
Richard N. Bond, a former Republican national chairman, said,
"Neither of them ought to be whistling `Hail to the Chief' at the
moment."
After weeks of seesawing polls, several surveys said the
competition nationally and in swing states was too close to call.
But perhaps because some polls suggest that Mr. Bush has nudged
ahead after the first two debates, Democratic officials seem
slightly ó just slightly ó more tense than their Republican
counterparts.
In fact, while many Republican officials counsel Mr. Bush to keep
moving forward pressing his issues, prominent Democrats are more
critical of the Gore operation. They say that Mr. Gore must be
far more forceful in accentuating his accomplishments ó and his
differences with Mr. Bush.
Senator Bob Kerrey, Democrat of Nebraska, complained that in the
debates Mr. Gore did not sufficiently counter Mr. Bush's
assertion that he was a uniter who would deal better with
Democrats and Republicans in Congress. Mr. Gore, Mr. Kerrey said,
needs to underscore his achievements on everything from the
budget to trade pacts.
"Gore's got to say, `I delivered,' " Mr. Kerrey said. "You're
saying we didn't do anything? Were you on this planet in '95 and
'96? Bill Clinton and Al Gore almost got run out of the
Democratic Party for working with Republicans. How about the
crime bill? How about the balanced budget act? How about GATT?
How about Nafta?"
James Carville, an architect of President Clinton's victory in
1992, said he did not understand why either Mr. Gore or Mr. Bush
does not do something bold to overtake his rival. Yet Mr.
Carville had no suggestions about what audacious moves either
side could make.
"Somebody's got to come up and grab this thing," he said. "This
is an election that's waiting to be won. It strikes me that the
one who steps up and does something will be the winner. Both
sides are paralyzed by worry."
But officials in both camps said they were nervous that any
dramatic moves in this close a race could backfire ó and make it
impossible for them to recover.
"I come from the Green Bay Packers school of politics," said Tom
Cole, the chief of staff for the Republican Party. "You execute
and you do it well so hopefully the other side can't stop you,
though they have a pretty good idea of what's coming." He added,
"This is a risky time to get cute."
William M. Daley, Mr. Gore's campaign chairman, had a similar
outlook. "If you're 10 points down or 15 points down, you've
really got to throw the long bomb," Mr. Daley said. "Right now
this race is so close it's not about throwing the Hail Mary pass.
What if you come up short?"
Officials on both sides scoffed at the notion of an "October
surprise" that could somehow help their candidate break through.
Their larger concern is that the violence in the Middle East
constitutes an October surprise ó not of their own making ó that
could scramble the race. What is most disconcerting to advisers
in both camps is that there is no way of gauging how a foreign
crisis will affect the race.
If attention to foreign policy continues to escalate, Mr. Gore
could capitalize on his much richer foreign affairs experience
and the tendency of Americans to rally behind an administration
in a time of crisis. On the other hand, if voters disapprove of
how the White House is handling matters of war and peace, they
may turn to Mr. Bush. Republicans, after all, are rated in polls
as more capable of handling foreign policy.
Many Republicans and Democrats said they could not even guess how
the foreign crises would play politically. "We're in charge ó
it's our guy at the White House," Mr. Kerrey said. "It could help
the Democrats. It could hurt the Democrats."
Gov. John Engler of Michigan, a Republican, agreed that the
Middle East episodes could play many ways. But he took issue with
the notion that they could unify the nation around the party that
controls the White House.
"It has as much risk or maybe even slightly more to hurt Al
Gore," Mr. Engler said. "If something does go completely haywire,
it may be that the seeds were sewn long ago" in the Clinton
administration.
In the short term, at least, the bloodshed in the Middle East has
knocked campaign news off the front pages. As a result, it may be
even harder for Mr. Gore or Mr. Bush to make any breakthrough in
the polls.
The conflict, and Mr. Clinton's scheduled participation at a
summit in Egypt on Monday, also creates uncertainties about the
candidates' third and final debate on Tuesday in St. Louis. On
the one hand, it could overshadow their meeting, a town-
hall-style forum in which members of the audience question them.
Or it could stimulate interest in the debate among voters
concerned about how either candidate would handle the tensions
overseas.
Patrick H. Caddell, who was President Jimmy Carter's pollster,
recalled the internal agonizing in the 1980 campaign ó the last
time there was a contest this close this late in the season ó
when the dynamic was affected by a foreign matter largely beyond
the candidates' control, the Iranian hostage crisis.
"You're tense, you're nervous," Mr. Caddell said. "Every morning
you get up and you make certain moves and you go to bed that
night and nothing dramatic has happened. You can't seem to get a
break."
Mr. Caddell said the Gore team must be particularly uneasy. "I'm
sure the Gore people are having a very rough time after last
week," he said. "They think they won the first debate, and yet
everything turns sour. That has to be very debilitating."
Gore campaign officials say they feel enormous pressure because
they have less to spend than the Republicans, who are spreading
resources in more states. Advisers to Mr. Gore said they would
decide after the St. Louis debate whether to give up on some
major states ó Ohio and Louisiana are among the possibilities ó
and pump resources elsewhere.
"Because the race is so close, you feel pressure within the
campaign to open up, break out," said Tad Devine, a Gore
strategist. "You feel pressure from institutions that are
supporting you. You feel pressure from individual states to make
decisions about scheduling and resource allocation."
Karl Rove, Mr. Bush's top strategist, said he did not feel such
pressure. "We have the resources and the volunteer enthusiasm to
conduct an aggressive air and ground game in all the battleground
states and then some," he said. Mr. Rove said he did not expect
either candidate to break ahead in the polls until the end. "The
people who are left out there, available to both sides, are going
to move begrudgingly," he said.
Democrats seemed more distressed than Republicans about their
candidate, particularly after the second debate. Many said that
the vice president, troubled that he came across as imperious in
the first debate, was too timid in the second one. "I'd have to
give Bush the points," Senator Richard J. Durbin, Democrat of
Illinois, said after the second debate. "Gore was off his game a
little because of the criticism he took in the first debate."
Mr. Torricelli said he was worried that Mr. Gore might be too
afraid to shoot back at Mr. Bush.
"Al Gore, in particular, needs to change the dynamic of the
race," he said. "Bush has succeeded in convincing people that
there are only marginal differences on issues. I know this has
been a few difficult weeks for Al Gore, but it's critical that he
not lose his confidence. He has to be aggressive. That's the only
means of winning."
Even for those who give Mr. Bush the edge in the second debate,
that benefit may be fleeting because coverage was eclipsed by the
Middle East.
Mr. Engler did acknowledge that a self-inflicted wound could
happen on the Republican side. "Anybody in a campaign is subject
to some horrific gaffe," he said, "something completely out of
left field."
But people in both parties also said the race could turn on
mechanical factors, like which party is most successful in
prodding voters to the polls. Senator Durbin, for one, recalled a
recent conversation he had with Mr. Gore: "I said that my
experience tells me something very good and something very bad is
going to happen to you before the election, and that I hope the
good thing is better than the bad. He said, `I paid a lot of dues
to get here.' I said, `I know, but some things are out of your
control. This could all change in a heartbeat.' "
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FROM THE DESK OF: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
*Mike Spitzer* <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
~~~~~~~~ <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
The Best Way To Destroy Enemies Is To Change Them To Friends
Shalom, A Salaam Aleikum, and to all, A Good Day.
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