-Caveat Lector- >Ha'aretz: IDF fears Arafat is pushing for full-scale regional war >By Amos Harel - Ha'aretz 20 October 2000 > > >The defense establishment is becoming increasingly convinced that Yasser >Arafat does not intend to return to the Oslo process. This leaves him with >two choices: The first, and the one he apparently prefers at the minute, is >controlled violence that will lead in the end to new diplomatic initiatives, >but with increased international involvement. The second, which Arafat has >not ruled out, is a full-scale regional war. >The hope that Arafat would act forcefully to stop the violence has been >revealed as delusional. The populace is pushing him to continue the "Al Aqsa >Intifada." He has not yet sent a clear message of commitment to the Sharm >understandings, contenting himself with anonymous and nonbinding statements >through the Palestinian media. And serious incidents continue to occur. >Furthermore, some of the most dangerous Hamas activists are still not back >in Palestinian Authority prisons. IDF officers say that "lifting the closure >on the territories at this point would be tantamount to madness," given the >intelligence information regarding plans to carry out bomb attacks in major >urban centers. Nor is it only Islamic radicals who pose a concern. According >to the IDF, many of the latest incidents involved members of Mohammed >Dahlan's preventive security apparatus, and both Dahlan and his counterpart >in the West Bank, Jibril Rajoub, are still refusing to meet with Shin Bet >security service chief Avi Dichter. >In Arafat's preferred scenario, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would >resemble Kosovo: increasing international involvement, foreign observers and >troops, and finally an imposed settlement - which would be better for the >Palestinians than what the Americans offered at Camp David. The minute >parties other than the Americans are involved, Arafat profits. An Israeli >mistake (bombing civilians, a massacre by settlers) or a new, more hesitant >American administration would also help. >And if Plan A does not achieve its goals, Arafat would still have the option >of a regional conflict. His hope is that once the smoke clears, a >Palestinian state will emerge, perhaps with better borders than Ehud Barak >and Bill Clinton have offered him. >In the meantime, there are several tactical junctures to be maneuvered. The >first is this afternoon, when in Israel's view, the 48 hours allotted for >implementing a cease-fire expire (in the Palestinian view, this deadline >expired yesterday). Then comes the Arab League summit tomorrow. But the most >important will come in the middle of next week, when Israel, finally >convinced that Oslo, like Sharm, is a dead letter, will have to decide what >to do. For the first time, it will have to consider taking the initiative, >rather than merely responding to events. >Despite differences of opinion within the general staff, most of the >generals still favor restraint. But continued escalation by Arafat would >change their mind. "We cannot become reconciled to a reality of daily >attacks," said one. "A war of attrition is the worst scenario ... it would >be better to sharpen [the conflict]." >Against this background, a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state - >probably sometime between the end of the Arab summit and November 15, which >is Palestinian Independence Day - becomes more likely. Ironically, this >would also have advantages for Israel: Israel would be seen as justified in >taking steps to guarantee its own interests, such as separating more >decisively from the Palestinians, seizing key positions, and even annexing >part of Area C (that part of the territories still under full Israeli >control). >The most worrying scenario is a regional conflict. Egyptian President Hosni >Mubarak has been working for restraint, but Iraq, Iran and Hezbollah are >working for war. Iraq has already moved a division toward the Jordan border >and put its air force on higher alert - exhibitionist steps, but not >meaningless - and Hezbollah will do its best to drag Syria into the conflict > <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! 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