-Caveat Lector-
Bin Laden's name raised again
An intelligence primer
on America's archnemesis
By Robert Windrem
NBC NEWS
NEW YORK, Oct. 18 - Like Carlos the Jackal and Abu Nidal, Osama bin
Laden has become a nemesis of the West, particularly the United States. His
role in the deadly attack on a U.S. destroyer in Yemen is unclear, but
American officials automatically regard him as a suspect in such cases.
SLOWLY BUT SURELY, the United States has been building a database on
bin Laden and his al-Qaeda guerrilla network, a database that has helped law
enforcement and intelligence foil some plots, but not all, before they are
carried out. As one high-ranking U.S. official said recently, "You cannot
overestimate the threat this man poses to the United States."
Here is a look at bin Laden's organization, according to U.S.
intelligence and law enforcement sources, all of whom spoke on condition of
anonymity.
Where is Osama bin Laden?
Most recently, he has been seen near Jalalabad, in eastern
Afghanistan. He moves three or more times a week, living in mud huts, tent
cities and caves. He is accompanied by a security entourage that includes
heavily armed bodyguards as well as anti-aircraft guns mounted on trucks.
Often, multiple sites are set up for his use and he will choose one
at the last minute. He is believed to have a coterie of 400 operatives in
Afghanistan, most having arrived with him from Sudan in 1996.
How often does U.S. intelligence know where he is?
In recent months, U.S. intelligence has gotten a better grasp on
how he operates and where. "We are getting better at finding him. There are
days and days where we don't know where he is," said one U.S. official. On
other days, the United
States has "different degrees of specificity as to where he is. Does
he move every night? Not every night ... but he moves a lot." At the time of
the embassy bombings, the United States had no idea where he was.
How does he communicate?
This is his biggest problem. The United States has successfully
compromised his communications. One official said, "He's stopped using
satellite phones. although we've caught many of his couriers; it only takes
fifty bucks to buy someone in Afghanistan." Bin Laden used Inmarsat phones
until he discovered that U.S. operatives were intercepting his
communications off the Inmarsat-3 satellite over the Indian Ocean. For
years, the National Security Agency would distribute transcripts of calls
bin Laden made to subordinates. One of the biggest breaks in the embassy
bombing investigation was the interception of a congratulatory phone call in
the days after the blasts.
Wanted: Osama bin Laden
Other officials note the clever combination of 19th and 20th century
means of communications bin Laden has adapted. His couriers often carry
encrypted floppy disks and meet in third countries with couriers from target
nations. Once in the hands of the target nation's cell, the
information is de-encrypted. Bin Laden has also used faxes from remote
locations and in some cases, Internet-based e-mail.
In addition to encryption, al-Qaeda has used various code words and
aliases to disguise identities. Bin Laden has been described in al-Qaeda
communications as "the sheik," "Hajj," "Abu Abdullah," and "the director."
Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, the alleged mastermind of the embassy
bombings, used at least three aliases, and Ramzi Yousef, the convicted
mastermind of the World Trade Center bombing, used 15 as well as 11
passports.
One law enforcement source said al-Qaeda has been trying to recruit
Americans as couriers, knowing an American passport is easier to use
worldwide.
Can he travel outside Afghanistan?
Bin Laden is believed to have access to "several planes," the
ownership of which is "a bit cloudily ... but there are certainly enough
aircraft to move a rather tall terrorist," said one senior U.S. intelligence
official. Bin Laden traveled around the Muslim world in charter jets for
years prior to his exile in Afghanistan. He also owns a private jet, said
another intelligence official.
How is Bin Laden's network, al-Qaeda, structured?
Bin Laden is the undisputed leader, called "emir" or "prince," by his
followers, who must take a sworn oath to him. Any violation is punishable by
death.
Beneath him is the "shura al-majlis" or "consultative council," which
includes his top lieutenants. His two aides are Egyptians: Ayman
al-Zawahiri, a physician and leader of al-Jihad, the violent Egyptian group
responsible for the Luxor tourist massacre in 1995, and Muhammed Atef, his
military commander, who also served in al-Jihad. A committee of the council
makes the decisions to carry out terrorist attacks.
Where does al-Qaeda operate?
Al-Qaeda is believed to have operations in 60 countries, and active
cells in 20, including the United States. It is also believed to operate
training centers in both Afghanistan and Sudan. The first were set up in
1994 with representatives from Egyptian, Algerian, Tunisian and Palestinian
extremist groups.
Among the countries identified as having active cells of al-Qaeda are
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Chechnya, the Philippines, Egypt and Tunisia.
How does bin Laden disguise his movements?
Bin Laden regularly varies his movements. He will vary not only the
number of vehicles in his convoys, for example, but also the type of
vehicle.
.
Violence in Yemen
Intertribal warfare, kidnappings and anti-Western attacks have made Yemen a
dangerous place for foreigners.
June 19, 2000
An Italian archaeologist is kidnapped in eastern Yemen's Marib region.
June 13, 2000
Hours after being kidnapped, a Norwegian diplomat vacationing in the country
dies in the crossfire between government forces and his kidnappers.
March 6, 2000
The Polish ambassador is freed after being kidnapped in the captial, Sana'a,
on March 3. The kidnappers hoped to gain the release of fellow tribesmen
held by the government.
March 3, 2000
A Dutch aid worker is shot dead by a local security guard in Sana'a.
Feb. 11, 2000
An American oil worker is freed after being kidnapped on Jan. 26. Most
accounts attribute the crime to a tribe hoping to gain government investment
in its home region.
Feb. 11, 2000
A French couple is kidnapped and then quickly released by members of the
Al-Faheed tribe.
Nov. 3, 1999
Gunmen attempt to kidnap an American diplomat in the Yemeni capital. The
diplomat persuades the kidnappers to let him go.
Oct. 27, 1999
Three Americans are kidnapped by tribesmen demanding the release of some
tribe members from prison. The Americans are released two days later.
Oct. 13, 1999
Tribesmen attack the airport at Sana'a, killing four, after the tribe
chief's wife and daughter complain of improper treatment by airport staff.
Aug. 28, 1999
A bomb planted by the Islamic Army of Aden-Adyan flattens the City Center
Supermarket in the Yemeni capital.
May 16, 1999
The Islamic Army of Aden-Adyan issues a threat against British and U.S.
ambassadors.
May 5, 1998
Three members of the Islamic Army of Aden-Adyan are found guilty of the Dec.
28 kidnapping and sentenced to death.
Dec. 28, 1998
Sixteen Western tourists, including two Americans, are abducted in southern
Yemen by the Islamic Army of Aden-Adyan, an anti-Western terrorist group.
Four of the tourists die in a subsequent clash between the terrorists and
Yemeni government forces.
On some travels, he will give his entourage an hour's notice of his
departure. At other times, he will leave at a moment's notice. He will also
have several locations prepared, with only a few of his aides knowing which
he will ultimately choose.
What is the relationship between bin Laden, al-Qaeda and Algerian
terrorists?
Bin Laden is believed to have trained and financed Algeria's Armed
Islamic Group, or GIA, believed to be responsible for a minimum of 100,000
deaths in that country's civil war in the 1990s.
His first contact with Algerian Islamists probably came in
Afghanistan when bin Laden financed the recruiting and organization of the
so-called "Afghan Arabs," those Arabs who fought side by side with
U.S.-financed Afghan fighters against the Soviet Union.
Among the first "students" at his Sudanese training camps, beginning
in January 1994, were Algerians from the Armed Islamic Group. In December
1995, British authorities were able to track wire transfers from Bin Laden's
then-headquarters in Khartoum, the Sudan, to a London cell of the GIA.
U.S. officials also believe the 1995 Paris subway bombings had the
support of Bin Laden.
How does the al-Qaeda network operate?
Its operations are meticulous. Some plans are in the works for
months, if not years. Bin Laden himself also is very much hands-on.
Some examples:
The World Trade Center bombers cased the twin towers multiple times,
looking not just at security but the points under the trade center where an
explosion could do the most damage.
The East Africa embassy bombers phoned in credible threats to the embassy,
then observe the embassy's response.
The 1995 assassination attempt of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Addis
Ababa, Ethiopia, was based on surveillance of Mubarak's security
arrangements in Ethiopia two years earlier. Similarly, bin Laden operatives
videotaped security arrangements for President Clinton's 1994 visit to
Manila, knowing he had already committed to visiting the Philippine capital
for an Asian-Pacific summit two years later. The tapes were sent to bin
Laden, then living in Sudan.
"He may have begun as a venture capitalist for terrorism," said one
high-ranking intelligence officer. "But there is no doubt now that he is
operating like a CEO."
How long is an operation in the planning stages?
The minimum appears to be four to six months, but some plans evolve
over years. The surveillance of the East Africa embassies began in 1993,
five years before the bombings were carried out.
How are operational responsibilities divided?
Each operation has a planning cell and an execution cell. In most
cases, like the World Trade Center bombing and the embassy bombings, an
outsider recruits local nationals to operate as a cell. Cells rarely number
more than 10 people. In rare cases are the bombers - either the planners or
the operators - over the age of 30. At the time of the embassy bombings, the
masterminds were both 25.
Plans are made in one location, the bomb is made in another. In the
World Trade Center bombing, the planning took place in an apartment in
Jersey City, N.J., the materials were stored in a self-storage facility and
the bomb was put together in a garage. Similarly, in Nairobi, the planning
was done at a rundown hotel in downtown, while the bomb was put together in
a suburban villa.
How much do these operations cost? Is bin Laden using up most of his
money?
"Terrorism is not an expensive sport," said one senior Treasury
Department official who tracks terrorists' money. The total cost of the
World Trade Center bombing amounted to around $18,000, including the
purchase of equipment, a car and plane tickets, and the rental of the van
used in the bombing, two apartments, a garage and a self-storage space.
Not included in the cost: $6,000 in unpaid phone bills. Although at
the time of the embassy bombings, the CIA and others pegged bin Laden's
wealth at $300 million, subsequent intelligence gathering has resulted in a
significant reduction of the estimate, although the number is still in the
tens of millions.
Does he focus on one target at a time or simultaneously plan various
attacks?
Said one official of his recent planning, "He is planning several
hits and at some point he's going to break through."
U.S. officials note that the embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania
were to be accompanied by other, near simultaneous bombings in other world
capitals. One in Tirana, Albania, was foiled days before it took place, so a
series of coordinated attacks is well within his operational capabilities.
The USS Cole is part of the battle group of the aircraft carrier George
Washington, now deployed in the Persian Gulf to monitor ship traffic there.
The Cole, launched in 1994, is one of 28 Arleigh Burke class destroyers in
the U.S. Navy.
Crew: The Cole carries 350 sailors and Marines and is part of the U.S.
Atlantic Fleet based in Norfolk, Va. The Cole is named for a U.S. Marine
Corps hero. Its captain, Commander Kirk Liphold, took over in mid-1999 after
serving as an administrative assistant to the secretary of the navy.
Armament: Like all Arleigh Burke class destroyers, the Cole's main role is
protecting its carrier from attack. Thus it carries an array of
anti-aircraft weapons, including Standard surface-to-air (SAM) missiles and
Vulcan close-defense gatling guns. All of this is coordinated by highly
sophisticated Aegis radar.
But the Cole is also highly capable of striking at other targets on land or
sea. The Cole carries 56 Tomahawk cruise missiles as well as 8 Harpoon
anti-ship missiles.
Size and composition: The Cole is a small ship relative to its huge
carrier -- about 9,000 tons as opposed the George Washington's 102,000 tons.
The ship is 504 feet long and 66 feet across at its widest point.
Speed and composition: The Cole, like all Arleigh Burke class destroyers,
features a steel hull and superstructure, making them less vulnerable than
their predecessors which had steel hulls and aluminum superstructures but
not as strong as WWII-era destroyers. Modern naval design operates under the
theory that the advanced radar arrays on ships like the Cole would keep it
out of range of such weapons so it does not need to be as weighed down with
heavy materials. The Cole is capable of speeds of up to 32 knots.
How important is operational security to al-Qaeda?
Very, say officials. They have seen repeated instances where
operatives encounter something unexpected, and "go back to square one" out
of fear that security has been breached. There is little autonomy or
spontaneity in operational matters, and changes in plans must be approved at
higher levels. But the cell leader on the scene can call off an operation
without consulting anyone higher, said a senior intelligence official.
Said one counter-terror official: "They are not agile. They have to
reload and that takes months ... about four to six months. "They are very
willing to trade time for operational security."
Has the U.S. had any success against his operations?
Without providing details, CIA Director George Tenet has publicly
testified that the CIA has disrupted "several" terrorist attacks against
Americans. U.S. officials confirm those disruptions have involved planned
attacks by bin Laden.
More than 100 of his operatives have been arrested worldwide since
the embassy bombings in August 1998 on every continent but Australia and
Antarctica. Five men accused of conspiring in the embassy bombings are in
U.S. custody, awaiting trial in New York City. Another is awaiting
extradition in London.
Among operations believed to have been thwarted were a planned attack
on U.S. facilities in London early this year and an attack on FBI
headquarters in Washington this past summer.
"We keep stopping him; he keeps coming back," said one Pentagon
official. "You cannot overestimate the danger this man poses to the United
States," said a senior White House official.
"He has regenerated some cells and started new ones," said a Pentagon
official involved in tracking bin Laden. "We will be dealing with him for a
long time because his organizational capability continues to improve. Does
it suck being UBL [the common shorthand in U.S. intelligence community for
Bin Laden]? Yes. He is on the road all the time. It is hard to conduct
business. He can't touch a phone. He is constantly on run. But he is still
out there."
Are his operations limited to bombings or does he have aspirations in
the nuclear, biological and chemical areas?
Officials from intelligence, military, emergency management and
national security agencies say bin Laden is branching out: planning
assassinations using "contact poisons," obtaining "rudimentary" chemical and
biological materials, trying to acquire radioactive material.
The latest information, which one official called "fascinating," is
that bin Laden may be returning to an old strategy: assassination. One
Pentagon official says the man officials call "the terrorist prince" has
been obtaining "contact poisons ... KGB-like pellets" that would be used in
assassinations and in some cases are difficult or impossible to detect in an
autopsy.
The official noted that in the early 1990s, bin Laden's network was
involved in assassination attempts on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, then
Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, Jordanian Crown Prince Abdullah,
who is now king, Pope John Paul and President Clinton.
He added that public U.S. intelligence reports on bin Laden's
training camps have noted the network has instructed terrorists in
assassination and kidnapping.
The contact poisons are among "rudimentary chemical and biological
stuff" bin Laden has obtained recently. However, one official said the
network's efforts to obtain such materials is "scattershot and unfocused ...
all over the board" without a pattern to indicate what he might be planning.
"He is looking for all sorts of stuff," the official said, adding
that twice bin Laden operatives tried to obtain nuclear materials. Bin Laden
's German operation was the victim of a sting operation in 1993 when it
tried to buy highly enriched uranium on the Soviet black market. A year
later, another similar attempt failed. The Bin Laden operatives in charge of
those attempts, Mamdouh Salim and Ramzi Yousef, are in U.S. custody. Russian
intelligence has told the United States that it believes bin Laden has been
working with Chechen rebels to obtain radioactive material for a
"radiological dispersal device" or "dirty bomb" that would spray the
potentially deadly material over a small area.
An official involved in planning emergency response to a terrorist
attack says the United States has taken the intelligence seriously.
However, officials cautioned that there is "no sense of a technical
sophistication" in Bin Laden's camp and that "this stuff is much more
difficult to use than people think."
"After all, Saddam Hussein spent $8 billion on nuclear weapons and
came away with bupkis," one official said. "He doesn't know how to do this.
He is spending every night in a different mud hut, so we're not too worried
that he is reprocessing plutonium."
On the other hand, the official added, "If he is stumbling onto
something, there is no doubt he will use it."
Why haven't we tried to grab him?
"We are serious about going after him," said one senior
administration official. "He is serious about going after U.S. If we can
nail his ass, we will. But it is going to be action and reaction for a long
time."
Doing a "snatch-and-grab" operation "looks appealing" from time to
time, said a Pentagon official. Has the United States planned such a
mission? Yes, said the official. Has the United States put Delta Force
personnel on planes in preparation for such a mission? "Not recently." The
big problem remains the need for real-time information on his whereabouts.
How is his health? A few months ago, there were reports he was
terminally ill.
A senior counter-terrorism official said the latest CIA analysis is
that he is "a hypochondriac ... but then he has chosen a stressful lifestyle
and that can manifest itself in strange ways if you are worried about
getting a TLAM up your ass."
Nevertheless, he is known to have an enlarged heart, chronically low
blood pressure and is missing toes on one foot from a battle wound suffered
in Afghanistan. He is regularly attended by a physician.
Is there any indication he works with governments in the Middle East?
Aside from Afghanistan, where bin Laden has long-standing ties -
including some possible family ties - with the ruling Taliban, there are
indications bin Laden has some contacts with the governments of Iran and
Pakistan.
The connections with Iran are described in recent Justice Department
papers filed in the embassy bombing case. The United States alleges that on
two occasions in the early 1990s, a senior religious leader from Iran met
with bin Laden's representatives in Khartoum to discuss putting aside
religious differences - bin Laden is a Wahabi Muslim, Iran is Shi'ite - and
cooperate against Western interests. However, there is no information to
suggest any joint operations were ever planned or carried out.
The link with Pakistan is more current. One issue that distresses
U.S. officials is intelligence that bin Laden, Kashmiri Muslim rebels in
India and Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence - a quasi-autonomous
military intelligence agency - are involved in "monkey business" together.
The United States used the Pakistan agency in the 1980's to fund, train and
arm the Afghan mujahedeen, including bin Laden, in its fight against the
Soviet Red Army.
Calling it a "stew," a "crazy soup" and a "cozy relationship," two
officials noted that the key to the relationship is Pakistan's use of rebel
insurgents in Kashmir, the troubled region that has been the subject of
three wars between Pakistan and India. Muslim fighters, financed by the ISI
but trained by bin Laden, have been operating in the Indian part of Kashmir.
"The Paks have interest in working with people who can help them in
Kashmir. Bin Laden has an interest in helping Muslim fighters. It is a cozy
relationship."
In fact, said the officials, the United States now believes that most
of those killed in last August's attack on bin Laden camps in Afghanistan
were Kashmiri insurgents training to kill Indians. And that linkage, they
note, is critical to understanding both Bin Laden's network and the future
of religious terrorism.
Robert Windrem is an NBC News investigative producer based in New
York.
. MSNBC Terms,
Conditions and Privacy © 2000
<A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A>
DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER
==========
CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic
screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are
sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis-
directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with
major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought.
That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and
always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no
credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply.
Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector.
========================================================================
Archives Available at:
http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html
<A HREF="http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html">Archives of
[EMAIL PROTECTED]</A>
http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/
<A HREF="http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/">ctrl</A>
========================================================================
To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email:
SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email:
SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Om
