-Caveat Lector-

http://news.excite.com/news/r/010113/21/science-weather-antarctic-dc


Antarctic Ice Discovery Warms Climate Change Debate

Updated 9:43 PM ET January 13, 2001
By Michael Byrnes


SYDNEY (Reuters) - The discovery in a core of ancient polar ice
of evidence of a sudden Antarctic temperature rise thousands of
years ago has added fuel to the debate on global warming.

The find, by scientists working on an ice core taken several
miles beneath the surface, is the first evidence of rapid warming
in the Antarctic and matches existing evidence of warmer bouts in
past aeons in the north pole region.

It suggests a temperature spike of around four degrees Celsius
took place in the south pole region over about a decade 19,000
years ago.

"That's a significant temperature change (over) about a decade...
Pretty phenomenal," said Dr. David Etheridge, a scientist with
Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organization (CSIRO).

The discovery, by University of Colorado Associate Professor
James White toward the end of last year, is sending Australian
scientists back to examine their own drill cores of Antarctic
ice, taken from Australia's East Antarctic Territory.Scientific
interest in White's discovery, from cores taken from coastal West
Antarctica, has been heightened by a correlation between the time
of the temperature spike and an abrupt rise in sea levels at
about the same time, as documented by Australian National
University research.


DRAMATIC MELTDOWN

"It is fuel for the argument that climate change can be rapid and
that the Antarctic ice sheet can melt,"  Etheridge said.

Not everyone agrees. White's discovery, which all scientists
caution needs verification, is providing as much fuel for
skeptics as for committed believers in greenhouse warming.

Professor Pat Quilty, former chief scientist with the Australian
government-funded Australian Antarctic Division and now an
academic with the University of Tasmania, says the Antarctic
temperature spike counters doomsday theories of melting Antarctic
ice sheets.

Belying the beliefs of those on the global climate change
bandwagon, the new Antarctic readings showed natural change could
be as dramatic as anything produced by man, he said.

"This is taking a more reasoned view,"  Quilty said. "Nature
imposes some pretty dramatic changes.

"In contrast, Etheridge says ancient Antarctic ice is proving
that warming thousands of years ago took place after changing
orbital tilts of the earth triggered a release of the greenhouse
gas, carbon dioxide, from the oceans.Greenhouse gas was part of
the cause of warming even then, long before industrialization
increased the amount of gas clogging the atmosphere, he said.

Now ancient Antarctic ice could help predict modern climate
change, he said.

"It is the historical record which constrains our understanding
of the climate system.

The 19,000 year shift is another piece of the jigsaw into
understanding how things change," Etheridge said.


SEARCH FOR NEW EVIDENCE

Further evidence of White's warming could be hidden in a
four-inch section of a core sample of ice in Australia."It's
worth looking," said Vin Morgan, principal research scientist
with the Australian Antarctic Division (AAD), the
government-funded body responsible for logistics and research at
Australia's Antarctic Territory.

AAD will re-examine a core covering an 80,000 years timespan
drilled around 10 years ago at Law Dome, inland from Casey
Station.

The real question was what made rapid climate changes occur,
Morgan said. Nobody knows, despite the unlocking of some of the
secrets of Antarctic ice.

Also, nobody definitely knows how Antarctic ice sheets are
responding to global warming and changes in sea level, he said.

The Antarctic contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by
five to six meters and has been melting since the end of the last
ice age, sending giant icebergs crashing off the edges of
Antarctic shelves.But new snow was generally compensating for ice
loss, leaving the Antarctic in approximate balance between
accumulation and outflow of Antarctic ice, Morgan said.

If anything, atmospheric warming should initially increase the
Antarctic ice sheet through increased snowfall, with the rate of
outfall taking thousands of years to react to temperature change,
he said.

Australian ice cores clearly record increased atmospheric buildup
of greenhouse gases through the industrial age, in association
with a temperature rise of about 1.5 degrees celsius over the
last 150 years.

Global warming was expected to continue as modern economies
pumped out greenhouse gases, Etheridge said. Antarctic ice would
therefore be a key part of science's attempts to maintain a
habitable climate on earth."The ice is a detective story, I
guess," Etheridge mused.


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