-Caveat Lector-

London Telegraph 1/26/01
  Civilisations 'destroyed by climate change'
By Roger Highfield, Science Editor
 Science

  SCIENTISTS warn today of "unprecedented social disruptions" that could
result from global warming, after linking the collapse of societies
throughout history to climate change.
There is "mounting evidence" that the demise of some civilisations was
climate-driven, report Prof Harvey Weiss of Yale University and Prof Raymond
Bradley of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.

Scientists are now able to link the rise and fall of societies recorded in
the archaeological record with evidence of the timing and magnitude of
climate change held in ice cores, corals and sediments. Prof Weiss said: "We
find a very precise coincidence between the abrupt climate changes and the
archaeological record of collapse."

Sediments from Lake Titicaca, which straddles the border between Bolivia and
Peru, reveal that South America has endured alternating periods of heavy
rainfall and severe drought over the past 25,000 years. Studies of ancient
coral reefs in New Guinea show that the climate phenomenon El Nino, which
disrupts rainfall patterns worldwide, is more intense today than at any time
in the past 130,000 years, possibly as a result of global warming.

Societies from the Classic Maya of the New World to the prehistoric hunting
and gathering Natufians of south-west Asia were drastically affected by
sudden, prolonged and intense temperature and rainfall changes which
disrupted agriculture.

"These events were abrupt, involved conditions unfamiliar to the inhabitants
of the time, and persisted for decades to centuries," say the professors in
the journal Science. "They were therefore highly disruptive, leading to
societal collapse." The demise of the Classic Maya society in the 9th century
AD coincided with the most prolonged and severe drought of the millennium.

The pyramid-constructing Old Kingdom of Egypt, the Akkadian empire of
Mesopotamia, and Early Bronze civilisations of Palestine, Greece and Crete
all peaked in 2300 BC, then declined when catastrophic drought and cooling
struck a decade or so later. The Late Uruk society that flourished in
southern Mesopotamia in 3500 BC collapsed between 3200 and 3000 BC, again due
to drought.

The professors suggest that modern societies, faced with prospects of global
warming, may not be immune to social disruptions triggered by abrupt climate
change. Most of the world's people will continue to be subsistence or
small-scale market farmers. But unlike ancient societies, who could migrate
to where cultivation of crops was possible, the world is now too crowded for
"habitat tracking".

The authors say: "We do, however, have distinct advantages over societies in
the past because we can anticipate the future using computers," say the
authors. We must use this information to design strategies that minimise the
impact of climate change on societies that are at greatest risk. This will
require substantial international co-operation without which the 21st century
will likely witness unprecedented social disruptions.

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