-Caveat Lector-

<http://www.nytimes.com/2001/02/04/opinion/04SUN1.html>

February 4, 2001

EDITORIAL

Mr. Bush's Smooth Start

Many Washington Democrats acknowledge with grudging admiration
that the word "honeymoon" does not really capture the atmosphere
of the first two weeks of the Bush presidency. Despite the
understandably bitter reaction to John Ashcroft and to President
Bush's anti-abortion stance on foreign aid, Democrats in
Washington admit to being impressed by the new president's charm
offensive, nicknames and all, and by the tactical dexterity of
the White House's presentation of its agenda of issues. Mr.
Bush's use of soothing words and symbolic acts has not been
matched since Ronald Reagan's first days. In addition, the new
president has surpassed both Mr. Reagan, his own father and Bill
Clinton in making Congressional diplomacy an opening priority.

But it is important that the admiration of Mr. Bush's
salesmanship not blind us to the sharply ideological policies he
is offering in a kind of personality bubble-wrap. Despite his
charm, Mr. Bush has laid out legislative approaches or made
appointments that represent a direct threat to abortion rights,
to more than three decades of environmental progress and to the
basic fairness of the tax system. In an echo of the Reagan era,
Mr. Bush's combination of big tax cuts and missile defense plans
could wreck a hard-won fiscal stability.

There are other Reagan echoes in these first days. Like the Great
Communicator, Mr. Bush is benefiting from diminished
expectations. Democrats who had envisioned him stumbling into
town are now admiring him for staying "on message," even if they
dislike the message. Mr. Bush has also seemed smarter and
verbally sharper than they expected. If not quite the policy
maven that Mr. Clinton was, Mr. Bush has come across as a
credible defender of his goals and programs.

But we will know more about this new president when the time
comes for switching from style to substance. One advantage of Mr.
Bush's tireless talk of bipartisanship is that his own words can
serve as a benchmark for evaluating his actions in the future. As
Senator Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat, said after the closed
meeting with Mr. Bush, "It will all be talk until we get the
specifics." In a promising sign on education, Mr. Bush said that
he would be willing to negotiate over vouchers. He also said he
would be mindful of the constitutional problems in financing
social programs through "faith based" organizations.

Notwithstanding signs of flexibility, Democrats have to take
seriously Mr. Bush's tough's opening positions and the influence
of hard-line Republicans. The Democrats will have to persuade the
newcomer in town to compromise on taxes and budget issues if he
really wants comity on Capitol Hill. The tax package will be a
crucial guide to Mr. Bush's philosophical commitment to rewarding
the most affluent Americans.

Democrats, while remaining open to cooperation, must not let Mr.
Bush's charm offensive create an aura of legislative
inevitability around his excessive tax cut. New estimates by the
Congressional Budget Office put the 10-year surplus at $5.6
trillion, but that means only $2.7 trillion is really available
if you assume, as most in Congress do, that the Medicare and
Social Security surpluses are off- limits. As Democrats pointed
out last week, the true cost of Mr. Bush's proposed tax cut plan
is $2.3 trillion, and that does not count the inevitable add- ons
for the corporate sector that are almost certain to be included
in a final bill.

No matter how agreeably he behaves, Mr. Bush simply cannot
increase defense spending and education aid ó and also privatize
Social Security ó without throwing the budget back toward the
huge deficits created by the Reagan tax cuts. In the palmy
atmosphere he has created in Washington, it is probably hard for
him to realize that the tax cut and budget issues could determine
the success of his presidency. As Representative Richard
Gephardt, the House Democratic leader, pointed out to Mr. Bush in
their meeting last week, both the president's father and Mr.
Clinton had to raise taxes to close that deficit, and they paid
for it dearly.

The biggest mistake Mr. Bush could make is for him to talk
bipartisanship and then try to pick off conservative Democrats to
push through a tax cut that gives 43 percent of the benefits to
the wealthiest 1 percent of taxpayers. Mr. Bush has already done
quite a lot for the right wing of the Republican Party with his
environmental moves and the Ashcroft appointment, a political
mistake that we are betting Mr. Bush privately regrets.

Even so, it would be only human for him to believe the magical
good luck of his first two weeks will last forever. Everything
has broken his way. Mr. Clinton's pardoning mania made Mr. Bush's
arrival seem doubly refreshing. Alan Greenspan, the chairman of
the Federal Reserve, created a friendly climate for cutting
taxes. The California energy crisis did the same for Mr. Bush's
sales pitch on energy. But good luck and amiability will not
prevent deficits, as Mr. Reagan showed. And extreme, repressive
social policies will not create a revered presidency, as history
shows.


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             Kadosh, Kadosh, Kadosh, YHVH, TZEVAOT

  FROM THE DESK OF:
                     *Michael Spitzer*  <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
                      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
  The Best Way To Destroy Enemies Is To Change Them To Friends
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