-Caveat Lector-

http://www.freep.com/news/nw/city15_20010315.htm


History shows possible doom for megacities

SAN FRANCISCO -- Historians and archaeologists who study the
downfall of ancient civilizations are warning that parts of the
modern world may be heading the way of history's fallen
empires.Researchers say the overcrowded cities, water shortages
and electricity brownouts in 21st-Century California, India and
Brazil are ominous reminders of the fate of Rome, Babylon and the
Mayan empire.

Modern cities certainly enjoy more advanced technologies than
ancient metropolises. But the problems of crowding, pollution,
crime and sanitation that overwhelmed populous societies in the
past threaten to do so again.

The Mayas, who dominated Central America in the Ninth Century,
built elaborate irrigation systems to support their booming
population. But they "suffered from problems that are startlingly
similar to those today," said Vernon Scarborough, an
archaeologist at the University of Cincinnati."

Overpopulation was a major factor in making the Maya vulnerable
to failure," Scarborough said at a conference on "The Collapse of
Complex Societies" in San Francisco last month. "The trigger
event of the collapse appears to have been a long drought
beginning about 840."Although many factors, such as war and
disease, contributed to the calamities of antiquity, speakers at
the conference singled out two causes: too many people and too
little fresh water. This one-two punch can become lethal, they
said, when environmental problems such as a prolonged drought put
too much stress on a society.

The movement of people into big cities such as Rome and Tikal,
the Mayan capital, created great wealth, cultural richness and
complex bureaucracies that ultimately proved to be unsustainable.

"Complex societies have been collapsing for 12,000 years -- as
long as they have existed," said Joseph Tainter, an expert on
prehistoric American Indians at the Rocky Mountain Research
Station in Albuquerque, N.M.In his talk, Tainter pointed to
California's electricity crisis and never-ending quest for water
as today's version of the pressures that wrecked early societies.

The Akkadian empire in Mesopotamia, the Old Kingdom of Egypt, the
Indus Valley civilization in India and early societies in
Palestine, Greece and Crete all collapsed in a catastrophic
drought and cooling of the atmosphere between 2300 and 2200
B.C.Now the world faces an increasingly serious shortage of fresh
water.

Although water covers three-quarters of our planet, 95 percent of
it is saltwater and 70 percent of the rest is locked up in ice.A
billion people lack adequate clean water, said Peter Gleick,
director of the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development,
Environment and Security in Oakland, Calif.

Waterborne diseases kill 10,000 to 20,000 children every day,
said Gleick, author of a report "The World's Water,
2000-2001.""Half the world's population has water service
inferior to the ancient Greeks and Romans,"  Gleick said.

People all over the globe are abandoning small towns and villages
and jamming into metropolitan areas, especially in poorer
countries.

By 2015, population experts predict, there will be 28
"megacities," each with more than 10 million people. The Tokyo
region is already home to more than 26 million people. Bombay,
India, is expected to grow from 18.1 million to 26.1 million; Los
Angeles from 13.1 million to 14.1 million; New York City from
16.6 million to 17.4 million.

Cities in less fortunate parts of the world are especially likely
to suffer. "The lessons from history, or prehistory, are usually
inconvenient and painful to deal with and easy to ignore,"
Scarborough said.


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