-Caveat Lector- Hainan incident: Foreign and domestic entanglements http://atimes.com/editor/CD03Ba01.html South China Sea near Hainan Island, Sunday morning, approximately 9:10 am local time. Chinese version: An American spy plane is shadowed by two fighter jets. The American plane maneuvers abruptly and rams and downs one of the fighters. The US plane makes an unauthorized landing at Hainan Island's Lingzhui military airfield. "The US side has total responsibility for this event," the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement, adding that it had made a "serious" protest and that, "The US plane abruptly diverted toward the Chinese planes, and its head and left wing collided with one of the Chinese planes, causing the Chinese plane to crash." US version: An Okinawa-based US Navy EP-3 electronic surveillance plane (crew of 24) on a routine mission in international airspace is shadowed by two Chinese F-8 fighters, is bumped accidentally by one of the Chinese fighters, sustains damage to its nose cone and left wing and makes an emergency landing at Lingzhui. "It's pretty obvious who bumped who," said Admiral Dennis Blair, head of the US Pacific Command in Hawaii. He told reporters that the Chinese fighters, similar to US F-16s, fly much faster and have more maneuverability than the EP-3, which is about the size of a Boeing 737 and basically flies in a straight path. Well, make up your own mind who's telling the truth. But if the Chinese Foreign Ministry is, it doesn't exactly speak well for the skillls of Chinese fighter pilots. The EP-3 is a lumbering, unarmed four-engine propeller-driven plane. For the American pilot to deliberately have downed the F-8 fighter would either be quite a feat or speak volumes about the PLA air arm's military preparedness. Watch out for a PLA version of the event "correcting" the Foreign Ministry's. For any number of reasons, the Hainan incident comes at a most inopportune time. Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen has just concluded a Washington visit and met there with US President George W Bush. While the two leaders agreed to disagree on a variety of issues, both sides viewed the outcome as basically positive. But there are several present irritants in US-China relations - the arrest and detention of two US-related professors by mainland authorities, the ongoing 10-day Taiwan visit of the Dalai Lama, and most importantly, the possible sale of advanced US weapons systems to Taiwan - which in combination could lead to a serious deterioration in relations if the Hainan incident is mishandled by either side. The potential for such mishandling is real enough based on respective domestic political considerations. On the Chinese side, President Jiang Zemin, Premier Zhu Rongji, and Vice Premier Qian Qichen must exercise caution so as not to hand hardliners the argument that they are soft on the American aggressors - charges which could gain popular appeal and threaten orderly leadership transition. As Francesco Sisci writes in the accompanying analysis, the Beijing leaders cleverly appear to be dealing with the problem by declaring victory in Hainan: The US intruder plane was forced down. On the US side, anti-China hardliners will push for the speediest return of the American crew and plane and take anything else as an argument for pushing for maximum weapons systems deliveries to Taiwan, accompanied by shrill human rights violations charges. In light of these domestic political factors, speedy resolution of the Hainan incident would appear to be in the best interest of both sides. To all appearances, President Bush prior to the incident was aiming for a compromise on weapons sales to Taiwan: some advanced systems would be sold, but sale of the Aegis radar system would be postponed. From Beijing's standpoint, perfunctory protests aside, that would have been an acceptable deal. More broadly, neither Bush nor Jiang need foreign entanglements at this stage in their presidencies. Bush wants to concentrate on reinvigorating the US economy as without that he would be perceived as having failed in his key self-appointed task and be seen as a weak president with commensurate lack of clout in foreign affairs. Jiang as well has economic priorities and does not want his legacy threatened by a no-win confrontation with the US. So, is early resolution of the Hainan affair in sight? As the incident itself demonstrates, accidents happen. Further hiccups should not be ruled out. But both sides' interests point toward deliberate efforts at damage control. 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