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SPY PHOTOS SHOW BEIJING SET FOR UNDERGROUND TEST

Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES

-----------------------------------------------------------

China is preparing to conduct a small, underground nuclear
test in the midst of a standoff with the United States over
the detention of 24 American military personnel, The
Washington Times has learned.

U.S. intelligence officials said the EP-3E surveillance
aircraft that collided with a Chinese interceptor jet April
1 was gathering electronic intelligence related to the
impending test, along with other intelligence targets.

The test preparations were detected two weeks ago at China's
Lop Nur testing facility in western Xinjiang province. They
were based on U.S. spy satellite photographs that showed
activity related to nuclear testing at one location of the
testing site.

One official said the underground blast could be another in
a series of "subcritical" nuclear tests — small explosions
that do not produce an actual nuclear yield but are useful
in weapons development and maintenance.

However, other officials familiar with intelligence reports
said the Chinese are known to have a covert testing program
that relies on small, or low-yield, nuclear explosions.

In 1996, China became a signatory to an international treaty
banning all underground nuclear blasts.

U.S. intelligence officials said suspicions about the secret
Chinese nuclear testing program were confirmed after agents
from Beijing purchased special nuclear containment equipment
from Russia several years ago.

The special equipment is known to be used in masking the
seismic signatures of nuclear explosions — like the small
blast China set off June 1999, days before a senior U.S.
diplomat delivered an apology to Beijing for the mistaken
bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, Yugoslavia,
during the air war there.

The timing of that test, which took place at Lop Nur, was
viewed as an intentional signal from Beijing, which had cut
off all military contacts with the United States and had
begun vitriolic attacks on the United States in the
government-controlled media.

Although the test preparations were spotted before the
showdown between China and the United States began,
officials did not rule out a connection to China's
stepped-up aggressive harassment of U.S. intelligence and
plans for the test.

China is opposing Bush administration plans for U.S. arms
sales to Taiwan and plans for deployment of a national
missile defense, and it has been engaged in a concerted
effort to influence U.S. policies, said defense and
intelligence officials.

A test during the current standoff would signal China's
growing nuclear power, said the officials.

A U.S. defense official said the testing activity at the
current time is a sign that China's leader, President Jiang
Zemin, may not be fully in control.

"Some say Jiang is a moderate who wants good relations with
the United States," the official said. "If that's the case,
this test during a difficult period with the United States
indicates he is not in control of China."

The EP-3E conducts signals intelligence operations that are
aimed at collecting large amounts of communications and
other electric signals. The aircraft left from Kadena Air
Base on Okinawa, Japan, and flew south along the Chinese
coast until its encounter with two Chinese interceptor jets
near Hainan Island.

The aircraft's sensitive listening equipment is capable of
picking up communications thousands of miles inland,
including any signals from Lop Nur, the main Chinese nuclear
testing facility, intelligence officials said.

The U.S. intelligence community also uses RC-135
reconnaissance flights and spy satellites to collect
intelligence from Lop Nur. It also has "sniffer" aircraft
that can detect any nuclear particles produced from nuclear
tests after they take place.

China in the past has used tests of its missiles and nuclear
weapons as political signals to the United States.

China is currently engaged in a major strategic weapons
buildup. Last year, it conducted two flight tests of a new
road-mobile long-range missile known as the DF-31.

China also is building a longer-range missile known as the
DF-41 and a new class of ballistic missile submarine that
will be equipped with a naval version of the DF-31.

China last conducted large-scale nuclear tests in 1996. It
announced later that year it was agreeing to the
international nuclear test ban known as the Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty.

U.S. intelligence agencies assessed the 1996 tests to be the
first blasts of a new small warhead — believed based on the
design of the W-88, the United States' most advanced small
nuclear warhead, obtained through espionage.

Although China signed the test ban treaty, it has not
ratified it.

The U.S. Senate rejected the pact in 1999. The State
Department said at the time of the Senate debate that U.S.
ratification of the treaty would "constrain" China's nuclear
weapons modernization because any information on U.S.
nuclear testing obtained by Chinese spies could not be used
without first conducting nuclear tests.

"China is not likely to rely on weapons incorporating
information obtained through espionage without first
conducting nuclear explosive tests," the department said in
a 1999 fact sheet.

The fact sheet also stated that China said when it signed
the test ban treaty in 1996 that "it would continue to
evaluate the safety and reliability of its nuclear weapons.
 . . We believe that China has initiated such a program at
its Lop Nur test site."

China has refused to permit international monitoring at its
nuclear weapons test facilities —a key reason Senate
Republicans rejected the test ban treaty as unverifiable.

Negotiators failed to include provisions in the treaty that
would allow precise monitoring near Lop Nur.

Despite the Senate's rejection of the treaty, the Bush
administration is seeking $21 million for international
monitoring of the defunct treaty, a sign treaty proponents
are operating outside the control of administration
political appointees.

"It's the Clinton bureaucracy doing this, and it shows the
Bush administration hasn't reined them in," said one U.S.
official.

The continued nuclear test efforts by China show "China
could never be a reliable treaty partner" since it announced
in 1996 that it would no longer test, this official said.


-----------------------------------------------------------
This article was mailed from The Washington Times


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