-Caveat Lector-

http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A13350-2001Apr12.html

We Lost

By Robert Kagan and William Kristol

The Washington Post
Friday, April 13, 2001; Page A23

In the United States today, Americans are celebrating the return of the
aircrew from China. President Bush is being widely praised for his deft
handling of the hostage crisis. In China today, the government-run media
are celebrating a great "victory" over the American superpower. Chinese
leaders are being praised for extracting an apology from the United
States for its aggressive invasion of Chinese territory. Who is right to
celebrate? Comforting as it would be to believe otherwise, the Chinese
see more clearly than we do that -- so far -- they have won and we have
lost.

First, make no mistake: The United States has apologized. And the fact
of our apology is all the more humiliating because the United States was
in no way to blame for the incident. An American surveillance plane
flying in international airspace was bumped by a Chinese fighter and
forced to make an emergency landing in Chinese territory.

The Chinese pilot, some say, was "reckless." Maybe so. But the pilot was
only carrying out his government's specific orders to recklessly harass
American aircraft flying over the South China Sea, which Beijing wants
to claim as Chinese territory and from which the Chinese military wants
the United States excluded. For months the Chinese have been directing
their pilots to fly closer to American surveillance planes. And for
months they have ignored repeated U.S. warnings about the dangers of
this new, aggressive policy.

And so the collision was not, as American officials insist, a "tragic"
accident for which no one was to blame. It was the direct consequence of
a deliberate Chinese policy to increase the risks to American pilots and
crew -- and to their own -- in order to achieve a military objective.

Confronted by this direct and deliberate challenge, the United States
has apologized. We have not only expressed regret and sorrow for the
loss of the Chinese pilot and plane. We have publicly declared that we
are "very sorry" for violating Chinese airspace by landing our crippled
plane in Chinese territory. And let us not forgot why we apologized. The
letter that our ambassador delivered to the Chinese government this week
was not the product of high diplomacy. It was not the product of
Sino-American "cooperation" -- a welcome harbinger of future "crisis
management" between the two powers. It was the product of Chinese
extortion. They held our troops hostage until we said, "Uncle." When we
finally said something that in Chinese sounds a lot like "uncle," they
let them go.

We can kid ourselves all we want, but we have suffered a blow to our
prestige and reputation, a loss that will reverberate throughout the
world if we do not begin immediately to repair the damage. The problem
is not merely that we have lost face -- though the Chinese are right to
believe that great powers should place a high value on their reputation.
The bigger problem is that our reliability as defender of the peace and
protector of friends and allies, especially in East Asia, has been
thrown into doubt. If we do not have the will to stand up to the Chinese
when they hold 24 Americans for 10 days, who can believe we will stand
up to China when it threatens Taiwan and dares us to risk thousands more
troops to defend that democratic ally?

Nor should anyone doubt that Saddam Hussein has studied this whole
affair intently to see how the United States responds when faced with
this kind of bullying. So far the lesson is all too clear: When you
bully the United States, the United States searches for a way to
apologize.

Fortunately, the hostage crisis just ended was only Act One in the
Sino-American confrontation. Act Two begins now. As Richard Perle,
Charles Krauthammer and others have said, China must now pay a price for
its appalling and bellicose behavior. The point is not to exact
vengeance. The point is not to seek confrontation for its own sake. The
point is to make clear to the Chinese government that this kind of
muscle-flexing and flagrant violation of international norms cannot be
tolerated, and will not be rewarded or excused.

Right now the United States can take steps to ensure that China
understands how counterproductive its actions have been. First, we can
resume our surveillance flights in the South China Sea immediately,
without any deviation from the routes and methods used before the
crisis. Then, in two weeks, the Bush administration should agree to the
sale of a robust package of weapons to Taiwan, including a commitment to
sell Taiwan the Aegis system. We should do this not only to send a
message to China. We have an obligation to give the Taiwanese democracy
what it needs to defend itself against an increasingly threatening
Chinese military posture. But the Chinese also need to know that their
efforts to drive us away from Taiwan are futile. That is the best way to
ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait.

The administration can also move to bolster our force structure in the
Asian theater, use its influence to block Beijing's bid for the 2008
Olympics and vigorously push in Geneva for a U.N. condemnation of
China's miserable human rights record. Congress can do its part by
voting against a renewal of China's most-favored-nation status later
this year.

Would all these measures set U.S. policy on a fundamentally different
course? Yes. Those who believe the Sino-American relationship can return
to "normal" now that the hostages have been released are engaging in
self-delusion. If we simply try to put the crisis behind us and return
to "normal," as so many China hands, foreign policy "realists,"
corporate executives and our secretary of state have suggested, the
message to the Chinese leaders will be that they will pay no price for
an assault on American interests and honor. No message could be more
dangerous or more dishonorable.

Robert Kagan is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace. William Kristol is editor and publisher of the
Weekly Standard.

© 2001 The Washington Post Company

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