-Caveat Lector- >From Stratfor ================================= Iran Boosts Palestinian Uprising 26 April 2001 To reassert its importance in the Middle East, Iran is moving to revive its role as a sponsor for Palestinian and Lebanese radical groups. Tehran aims to hinder peace talks over the Palestinian uprising in Israel to demonstrate to Israelis and others that it still wields power and influence in the region. As a sponsor and coordinator of the Palestinian opposition, Iran undermines Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's ability to negotiate peace with Israel, while Tehran improves the effectiveness of militant groups in attacking Israel. This week, Iran hosted a two-day international conference in Tehran to support the Palestinian uprising in Israel. Tehran hopes to isolate Arafat and assume control over the intifada. In fact, while Arafat works with Egypt and Jordan to resume peace talks, Iran has called for strengthening the uprising. While publicly forming ties to groups like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamic Jihad, Tehran's efforts will damage Iran's image among some foreign leaders, others will look to Tehran as an influential third party. During the conference, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami "stressed the importance of unity among combatant groups and told those attending that the most important issue in Palestine is strengthening the Intifada," Iranian state news agency IRNA reported April 24. A Palestinian youth throws stones at Israeli soldiers during clashes Feb. 9. By focusing on problems the Palestinians face, Khatami and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also turn the public's attention away from the June 8 presidential elections. Likely to be the next big battle between conservative and reformist factions, Parliamentary representatives from 35 Arab and Islamic nations and leaders from several Palestinian opposition groups attended the conference. Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat was noticeably absent. Iran plans to undercut Arafat's efforts toward peace by offering the Palestinians an alternative. Iranian leaders also have suggested calling a referendum among the "original inhabitants of Palestine on the country's future," the BBC reported April 24. Sponsoring radical groups opposed to Arafat is a key strategy in achieving this goal. In May 1999, Khatami met several Palestinian opposition leaders in Syria, reportedly holding talks with former Palestinian National Council Chairman Khaled al-Fahoum; Ahmed Jibril, leader of the People's Front for the Liberation of Palestine, General Command; and Secretary General of Islamic Jihad Ramadan Abdullah Shalah. Ironically, during the last few years, Iran had reduced its support of international radical groups. Aimed at attracting foreign investment, Iran cut down its supply of weapons to groups like Hezbollah and toned down rhetoric supporting these groups. But today, Tehran is moving to reverse that trend. Before arms and training can resume, however, Iran must first consolidate its position as leader of the various radical groups and develop a coordinated policy among the groups. Now is an opportune time for Iran to make such a move since Arafat's ability to control the violence in the territories has come into question. Even Israel divides on the issue. Israeli Military Intelligence argues Arafat is in complete control over the violence, while Israel's Shin Bet argues the Palestinian leader has lost control and receives direction from Palestinian security officials, the Israeli daily Ha'aretz reported April 23. By holding the Palestinian summit, Iran probably aims to capitalize on Arafat's declining credibility and bolster his opponents' credibility. Iran's leaders met with many of Arafat's staunchest rivals. It did not take long to measure the impact of the Tehran meetings. Israel already is accusing Iran of supporting radical groups. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon claimed Tehran was building a rocket base in Lebanon that could mount attacks against Israel. Hamid Reza-Assefi, a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, denied Sharon's claims, according to a report from Agence France-Presse. Tehran probably will support escalating violence by these groups in Israel, then quickly bring it to a halt. Turning the attacks on and off like a spigot is necessary to demonstrate Tehran's influence. This will spur Arafat and Sharon to counter Iranian influence. Already, Sharon has softened his stance toward Arafat, and Israel is reportedly considering the Egyptian-Jordanian peace plan. Neither Israel nor Arafat wants Tehran to bolster militant groups. In response, the two may find it necessary to work together to prevent it. =============================== Are you new to STRATFOR? 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