-Caveat Lector- Warning: Indonesian Government to Fall 24 May 2001 Analysis Recent details emerging from Indonesia may appear to be incremental steps in the country's long journey toward collapse. The economy spirals downward, and social unrest ripples through street demonstrations. By the end of May, President Abdurrahman Wahid must respond to a second censure by Indonesia's lower house of Parliament before it considers impeachment hearings. The larger, looming reality, however, is that Wahid's government is likely to fall sometime this summer, no later than autumn. The current political stalemate is part of a vicious cycle, reinforcing poor economic conditions and further eroding stability. Facing a cash crunch, the government may raise fuel prices next month; the same move by Suharto in 1998 helped trigger the popular uprising against him. Protests and demonstrations in Jakarta have broken out regularly against the backdrop of the government's political instability. August has been a prime time for upheaval. Wahid has played political factions against one another so often that none will stand by him now. And by dividing the army and the police - the security apparatus - and by prosecuting certain officers, Wahid has created a military incapable of supporting the president. The international community sees Indonesia's military as the one force capable of holding the nation together, which it did ruthlessly for decades. But intelligence indicates that the 300,000-man army has lost much of its strength. Civil unrest and recent deployments have eroded discipline; field units ignore rules of engagement and even open fire on other forces. In the event of a widespread outbreak of violence, the army would not be able to keep control over the 17,500 islands comprising Indonesia. Armed members of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) conducting training exercises in North Aceh on March 3, 2001. As Indonesia ticks, its neighbors are hoping for a controlled detonation. For countries like Papua New Guinea, Malaysia and East Timor, which share land borders with Indonesia, this national disintegration poses a serious security problem. All share ethnic and social ties across their respective borders, heightening the chances for spillover. If the Indonesian security forces are unable to maintain order in Irian Jaya, Kalimantan or West Timor, intervention by neighbors is likely. Indonesia's disintegration presents a particularly troubling picture for Australia. Canberra recently has embraced an enhanced security role in Asia, with Indonesia one of its most important concerns. But Australian forces are incapable of tackling a systemic Indonesian collapse. Canberra's primary task will be to keep the unrest, violence and refugees from spilling outside Indonesia and away from the Australian coast. A brilliant blind man who once stood above the country's fractious politics, Wahid was to have shrewdly led a caretaker government. But Wahid's grasp on power has always been weak. He won the presidency not by popular vote but through political deals. Wahid's legitimacy has perched precariously on the perception that he is the only acceptable compromise. During his presidency, Wahid has steadily, if unwittingly, undercut his own regime. He is increasingly isolated. Meanwhile, the Wahid government is in an economic catch-22. It has had some IMF loans canceled, and this has sent its credit rating sprawling. The currency, the rupiah, is steadily falling. As the currency devalues, so does the government's ability to pay state workers. Reports suggest the government will be too broke to pay civil servants as of November 2001. This would only add force to a building social backlash. In the past week, Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri signaled she is prepared to let the president fall. At a televised political rally May 19, Megawati for the first time said she is prepared to heed her party's call and become the next president. But intelligence culled from various sectors of Indonesian society indicates there is little confidence not only in Wahid but also in alternative leaders, such as Megawati. A recent survey by Media Indonesia indicates that Indonesians now would prefer the dictator Suharto to the democrat Wahid by a factor of 26 to 1. The weakening of the military in the post-Suharto era makes it likely that the armed forces will focus their attention on Jakarta in the event of a change in regime. This shift in forces and attention would allow problems in other areas, primarily in the outlying provinces, begin to boil over. Separatist movements in the provinces will move to seize advantage. Upheaval in the outermost islands will create problems for energy companies, and the security of the sea lanes linking the Indian and the Pacific oceans will become uncertain, as will the security of U.S. and other naval forces that pass through them. Ultimately, Indonesia's neighbors are not prepared for its disintegration, nor are they capable of preventing it. But with the economic and political situation already collapsing, Indonesia stands on the brink. Without an economic or political miracle, it will slip from this precarious position in the coming months. Copyright © 2001 Strategic Forecasting LLC. All rights reserved. <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! 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