-Caveat Lector-

Friday May 25 08:32 AM EDT

A Question of Governing From the Right

By NEWS ANALYSIS By RICHARD L. BERKE The New York Times

Senator James M. Jeffords's decision to become an independent is an
example of the perils of President Bush (news - web sites)'s strategy of
governing from the right.

WASHINGTON, May 24 Senator James M. Jeffords's defection from the
Republican Party cannot be dismissed as the isolated case of an
exasperated lawmaker who felt that he was not getting proper attention
from the White House.

Many influential Democrats and Republicans agree that Mr. Jeffords's
decision to become an independent is a striking example of the perils of
President Bush's strategy of governing from the right. Some Republicans
fear that Mr. Bush's stands on the environment, abortion and other matters
scared Mr. Jeffords out of his party.

Now that the Republicans have lost control of the Senate, the White House
and party leaders on Capitol Hill face a fundamental political question:
Should they take Mr. Jeffords's move as a lesson and moderate their
positions, or continue to press the case for conservatives and risk
alienating more liberal Republican voters and politicians?

Senator Olympia J. Snowe, a Republican from Maine, said Mr. Jeffords's
defection "should be a wake- up call for our party's leaders that the voices
of moderate Republicans must be welcomed and respected."

Even more conservative members like Senator Sam Brownback, a Kansas
Republican, said his party should try to broaden its appeal without
sacrificing its principles. "We do need to present additional aspects of the
agenda and not put as much emphasis on some agenda items," he said.
"For instance, we should be out there with an aggressive, market- based,
pro-environment agenda and aggressively pushing that forward."

Democrats, too, asserted that Mr. Bush should be more solicitous of the
moderate wing of his party.

"What I thought he would do when he became president was to do what he
said during the campaign: to lead from the middle," said former Vice
President Walter F. Mondale, a Democrat who represented Minnesota in
the Senate for 12 years. "You always try to find common ground. If he had
done that, he'd be amazed at how popular he would be. For some reason,
he seems to be preoccupied with keeping the right happy, and that is being
noticed in the country."

But in a display of the cross-pressures Mr. Bush faces, Jack F. Kemp, the
prominent conservative, argued that the president has tried to reach to the
middle, and that the education bill that passed the House this week was a
prime example.

"He's been willing to work on both sides of the issues even though he
doesn't get much credit for it from the press," Mr. Kemp said. "He's been
working with people on education, on the tax bill, on foreign policy. He's got
Colin Powell (news - web sites) down in Africa talking about AIDS (news -
web sites)." He added: "What do they want from this president? For him to
follow Jim Jeffords over to the Democratic Party?"

More than Mr. Bush's agenda, the course of the Republican Party may be
at stake. In the view of many Democrats, Mr. Jeffords has given voice to
their contention that the Republican Party has shifted to the right of the
public on critical issues.

As a result, Republicans say they are feeling pressure now to move swiftly
to make good on their election-time appeals to bipartisanship.

Yet there were no assurances today that that would happen. Mr. Bush and
Senator Trent Lott, the Republican leader, made clear that they were not
about to back down from their basic beliefs. Mr. Lott, for one, said
Republicans were "unified and committed" to pushing Mr. Bush's priorities.


The risk is that the White House has laid out an agenda on issues from
missile defense to privatizing Social Security (news - web sites) that
Democrats argue is not in line with many voters.

The one Republican whose stature (and ability to irritate Mr. Bush) will be
enhanced is Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican, who has co-
sponsored pending bills with many Democrats who will be in the majority.
"Tolerance of dissent is the hallmark of a mature party," he said, "and it is
well past time for the Republican Party to grow up."

Mr. Jeffords's decision catapults Senator Tom Daschle of South Dakota to
the position of majority leader, and makes him the most powerful figure in
his party. But with his authority to set the legislative agenda, Mr. Daschle
will also face intense pressure to make sure that the Democrats deliver
before the midterm elections next year. They can no longer use the
Republican Congress as their foil.

Nevertheless, the unexpected switch in control gives the Democrats an
enormous morale boost, and perhaps will lead some Republican senators
who do not relish being in the minority to retire.

"The Democrats are in emotional orbit," said Ross K. Baker, a political
scientist at Rutgers University. "And the Republicans have learned the
costly lesson that there are limits to presidential coercion of senators who
really do have constituencies that are more friendly to them than to the
president."

Mr. Bush built his campaign last year on his "compassionate conservative"
message. But since taking office, he has told his advisers that he would not
dare repeat the ways of his father, who lost the loyalty of conservatives and
lost his re-election drive.

Robert S. Strauss, a former Democratic chairman and veteran adviser to
presidents, said both parties have no choice now but to move closer to the
center. "This gives Bush more than a warning," he said. "This gives him an
excuse, if he's looking for one, to move a bit toward the center. And it gives
Daschle some room to move in his caucus."

Indeed, the shift of the Senate may not be all discouraging news for Mr.
Bush. After Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994, many of President
Bill Clinton's own aides braced for gloom and doom. But the outcome
forced Mr. Clinton to find common ground with Republicans, and he
coasted to re-election.

"In the long run, this may help Bush because if it's not just lip service, and
he actually works with Democrats, that will make him a better president,"
said Ronald A. Klain, a former aide to Mr. Daschle, who has held assorted
posts on Capitol Hill and in the Clinton administration. "The question is,
does he respond to the challenge the same way Clinton responded to the
challenge in 1995?"

Some Republicans argued that Mr. Bush's difficulties with Mr. Jeffords
were not simply grounded in ideology but also in the style and approach of
the White House and the Republican leadership in the Senate.

"This will be a useful wake-up call if it teaches the Bush White House and
Republicans in general that they have to get out and convince Americans of
the merits of their policies," said William Kristol, a conservative
commentator who is publisher of The Weekly Standard, "and not just
smugly repeat canned talking points."

Whether the Jeffords turn spurs Mr. Bush to move to the center or stay right
where he is, this much is clear: Republicans, for all their efforts today not to
appear ruffled, are furious at Mr. Jeffords and at their diminished position in
the Senate.

Unlike many of his fellow Republicans, Haley Barbour, a former party
chairman who is close to the White House, did not hide his animus. He
accused Mr. Jeffords of defecting because he wanted a better committee
assignment and knew the Republican hold on the Senate was fragile.
"Everything Jeffords has done serves his own selfish interest," Mr. Barbour
said.


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