-Caveat Lector- WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War! Nepal's New King Tilts Toward Beijing 07 June 2001 Analysis Most of Nepal's royal family died June 2, including former King Birendra, in a palace massacre. The king's son Crown Prince Dipendra is widely reported to have committed the murders, but an official investigation is yet to be concluded. Media accounts June 6 said the heir to the throne, angered by family's refusal to let him marry the woman of his choice, killed his father King Birendra and eight others in a bloody shooting spree. The impact of the killings will extend far beyond the kingdom's borders into the relations two Asian powers, China and India. Taking the throne is Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shah, brother to the dead king and an ardent nationalist. He will likely abandon his dead brother's India-friendly policy and attempt to play China and India off each other. He will also attempt to roll back the former king's democratic reforms. This would likely fuel public dissatisfaction with the monarchy and bolster support for Nepal's Maoist insurgency. Landlocked Nepal lies between rivals China and India. The Hindu kingdom controls the Kuti, Kerong and Kodari passes - some of the few navigable routes through the Himalayas - and is flush against several of India's most populous states. This is an abbreviated report. For full text, graphics and access to the in-depth intelligence and research on our website, click here to become a member! Nepalese rulers traditionally were leery of India, seeing it as an overbearing "big brother," but the late King Birendra had begun tilting toward India during the past decade. At the same time, Birendra gradually relaxed the monarchy's near-absolute power. But these policies were often overshadowed by concerns about the Maoist insurgency that has steadily grown over the past five years. Gyanendra opposed his brother's policies. An ardent nationalist, Gyanendra is said to tacitly support a cadre of elites calling themselves "Save the Nation," according to The Hindustan Times. Headed by former Prime Minister Marich Man Singh, the group is set on halting what it sees as the gradual erosion of Nepal's sovereignty to India. Nor does Gyanendra appreciate India's links to Nepal's pro-democracy groups, according to the Press Trust of India (PTI). Indian news channels have already been blocked from Nepalese cable. Gyanendra is also a fervent royalist and did his best to stall his brother's reforms. The new king has been rumored to have links to Nepal's Maoist rebels, according to Asia News Agency. If this is true, rebel victories have been intended to discredit the democratic process. Gyanendra has been unpopular with citizens since at least 1985, when protesters publicly criticized a member of the royal family for the first time and asked King Birendra to get rid of his brother due to perceptions that he was involved in influence peddling and shady business deals. Gyanendra's rise to power will discredit the monarchy that he so wants to re-establish. His coronation was met with hostility. Reuters reported that Gyanendra's coronation procession was barely over June 4 when an angry mob surged toward the royal palace; it was held back with tear gas and batons. And Reuters reported June 6 that police arrested the editor and two directors of a leading national newspaper after it printed an article critical of King Gyanendra. Gyanendra is also seen as a poster-child for royal corruption. This public perception is fueled by reports such as one by the South China Morning Post that he refuses to pay the state power company $230,000 for electricity used at one of his vacation homes. The reputation of his son, Prince Paras, is worse. Paras has been accused of killing several people, including a famous Nepalese singer-poet, while driving and of bouts of shooting at random, according to the Times of India. Popular discontent with Gyanendra and Paras will manifest in more public protests in the capital. More dangerous for stability, it will likely increase support for the Maoist rebels who now control about one-third of Nepal. As the populace turns against him, Gyanendra will push a nationalist agenda in an attempt to drum up support. This would mean leaning away from India and toward China. Gyanendra will not commit his loyalty to Beijing but will likely attempt to play balance-of-power politics between Nepal's two neighbors. *COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] Want to be on our lists? Write at [EMAIL PROTECTED] for a menu of our lists! <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! 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