-Caveat Lector- June 21, 2001 Bush Loses Favor, Poll Says, Despite Tax Cut and Trip By RICHARD L. BERKE and JANET ELDER The New York Times Despite his first overseas trip as president and the passage of his sweeping measure to cut taxes, President Bush's standing as a leader on both domestic and foreign fronts has diminished considerably, the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll shows. Far from giving him a political lift, Mr. Bush's European tour, though it drew largely upbeat news coverage, did not appear to help him in the eyes of the public. More than half of Americans say they are uneasy about Mr. Bush's ability to tackle an international crisis, and more people than not say he is not respected by other world leaders. In addition, Mr. Bush's personal appeal — one of his most potent qualities in last year's election — has dipped to its lowest point since April 2000, after he was lashed by Senator John McCain of Arizona in the early Republican primaries. And, by widening margins, people say they are less trusting that Mr. Bush will keep his word. The poll found that a majority of Americans seem disenchanted by what they view as Mr. Bush's inattention to matters they care most about. And there is a substantial gap between his stand and theirs on many of those issues, including the patients' bill of rights, education, energy, the environment, raising the minimum wage, prescription drugs and judicial appointments. Sooner or later, the sheen fades from new presidents, but this poll was discouraging for Mr. Bush because on nearly every critical measure tested, he has shown no improvement in recent months — and often has lost ground. Mr. Bush's job approval rating, which stands at 53 percent, is down seven points from March. His standing is similar to President Bill Clinton's at this point in his tenure. But, unlike Mr. Bush, Mr. Clinton's first months were marked by far more stinging legislative setbacks and political turbulence. Still, as Mr. Clinton showed, Mr. Bush clearly has time to reverse his fortunes. The nationwide telephone poll of 1,050 adults was conducted June 14- 18 during various stages of Mr. Bush's foreign trip. Its margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points. There are similarities between Mr. Bush's predicament and that of his father. As is the case today, when the elder George Bush was president, Americans said the country was veering dangerously off on the wrong track — and there was a widespread feeling that he was not focusing on issues of import to most Americans. "He scares me and I'm uneasy about his approach to foreign policy," Jim Carabanas, 57, an independent who was a poll respondent, said in a follow-up interview yesterday. Mr. Carabanas, a painting contractor from Austintown, Ohio, added, "It's going to take some time until he gets the experience he needs." "He's surrounded by advisers, but he has the last say," Mr. Carabanas said. "I'm hopeful that somewhere down the line he will be different. Clinton wasn't perfect either when he started, but he found his way." Bill Willis, 55, a Republican who manages an automobile dealership in Paxton, Ill., was more satisfied. "So far I'm pleased," Mr. Willis said, "I'm glad I voted for him. I like his character and his honesty. He had a decent track record of bringing about reasonable leadership. He's not one who likes confrontation." Another Republican, Betty Thomas, 62, a retired stenographer from Buffalo, said, "His personality — doesn't inspire a lot of confidence." "He really hasn't taken life too seriously," Ms. Thomas said, "and I don't think he's taken the presidency seriously either. He doesn't seem to have a lot to say that is specific. I don't think he's going to do much for prescription drug plans or helping the elderly. He seems to be most attentive to big business and, in particular, the big oil companies." Indeed, on energy and the environment, as well as on foreign affairs, Mr. Bush's ratings are well below 50 percent. His handling of foreign policy is approved by 47 percent of the public; his stewardship of the environment is approved by 39 percent — a substantial decline from a month ago. And his handling of the nation's energy problems is approved by 33 percent. Respondents were suspicious of the administration's energy priorities because of links between the oil industry and Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. Nearly two- thirds of Americans, including a plurality of Republicans, say that Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney are too beholden to oil companies, and that they are more likely to formulate policies that favor the industry. "I'm very concerned about the environment and I think he's favoring energy production over the environment," said Marjorie Green, 54, a Republican who is a retired lawyer in Satellite Beach, Fla. "I think he's very much influenced by big oil." A majority of respondents are skeptical that there actually is an energy shortage. More than 6 of 10 said Americans were being told there was a problem to give oil companies an excuse to charge more money. By nearly two to one, respondents said they favored protecting the environment over producing energy. They said that Mr. Bush takes the opposite view, making energy production his priority. Seventy-two percent of those surveyed said it was necessary to take immediate steps to counter the effects of global warming. While the administration has rejected the Kyoto accord on global warming, more than half the public said that the United States should abide by the agreement, even if it meant that China and India would not have to follow the same standards. There was a wide perception that the Bush administration favors the rich over the middle class and poor, with 57 percent saying the administration's policies favor the rich, 8 percent saying they favor the middle class, 2 percent saying they favor the poor, and 27 percent saying the administration equally addresses the interests of all groups. Mr. Bush is also seen as less caring about the average person than he was three months ago. And his difficulties with black Americans — who voted overwhelmingly for Al Gore, Mr. Bush's Democratic rival — seemed to have deepened. Eighteen percent of respondents said Mr. Bush cares a lot about the needs and problems of black people, down from 30 percent three months ago when Mr. Bush was making high-profile overtures to African-Americans. The commanding hold Mr. Bush once had on the public's trust has diminished. Forty-nine percent say Mr. Bush can be trusted to keep his word; 40 percent say he cannot. When he took office nearly six months ago, 56 percent said Mr. Bush could be trusted to keep his word, and 33 percent said he could not. More people are questioning Mr. Bush's leadership skills. Fifty-four percent of respondents say Mr. Bush has strong qualities of leadership, down from 59 percent in February and from 68 percent in October 1999, when he was governor of Texas. Apart from the discomfort about Mr. Bush himself, the public's anxiety about the future of Social Security is as high now as at any time in the 10 previous readings taken over the last 20 years by the Times and CBS News. The respondents said Mr. Bush's tax cut of $1.35 trillion over 10 years would not have much effect on the economy — and that the money could have been put to better use in programs like Social Security and Medicare. (The tax cut has been approved, but people have yet to receive their rebate checks.) "He needs to be more specific on how he intends to protect Social Security and Medicare," said Gary Levi, 60 a truck driver from Denver who is an independent. "I haven't heard enough about his plan." The president's difficulties may have tarnished how people perceive Republicans. Forty-six percent hold a favorable view of the party, which is similar to the party's standing in the wake of the contentious impeachment hearings. By contrast, 56 percent hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party. Three months ago, 54 percent viewed the Republican Party favorably. On a host of issues, in fact, the respondents' views are closer to those espoused by Democrats than those of Mr. Bush and other Republicans. Three-quarters of those surveyed want Medicare to include provisions for prescription drugs, even if that means an increase in premiums for Medicare patients. Nearly two-thirds said the program should be available to all Medicare recipients, not just those with low incomes. Seven in 10 respondents favor a patients' bill of rights, even if it means higher costs for participating in health care plans. More than 5 in 10 favor a law guaranteeing people the right to sue their health plan for denying coverage. That figure drops to 5 in 10 when respondents are asked to consider that the right to sue might result in increased costs. More than half the public favors raising the minimum wage to $6.65 an hour over three years from the current $5.15. Another 3 in 10 favor raising the minimum wage to $6.15 instead. Only 1 in 10 favors keeping the minimum wage at its current level. Although Americans favor mandatory testing of students in public schools, they oppose it if the scores are used to decide how federal money for education is allocated. Both the House and Senate have passed education bills requiring testing. Given the closely divided Congress, and the recent change of the Senate to Democratic hands after the defection of James M. Jeffords of Vermont from the Republican Party, a majority of Americans are bracing for more partisan bickering. Even so, they say they expect Mr. Bush and Democrats to seek compromises. Whatever the outcome, the public says Mr. Bush has more influence over the nation's direction than the Democrats in Congress. Despite the publicity about Mr. Bush sometimes working banker's hours, 53 percent of respondents say he is working hard enough, while 38 percent said he should be working harder. Asked the same question about President Ronald Reagan in early 1982, 58 percent said he was working hard enough and 35 percent said he should be working harder. As often happens with vice presidents, Mr. Cheney, who had an unusually high profile at the start of the administration, seems to have receded. Fifty- nine percent have no opinion of Mr. Cheney, compared with 49 percent in a CBS poll two months ago, while 27 percent view him favorably, and 14 percent view him unfavorably. While Mr. Bush has plenty of time to win over the public, some people do not want to give him the benefit of the doubt. "I didn't trust him when he was governor of Texas," said Shirley Autrey, 55, an independent who is a retired mill worker from Rome, N.Y. "I don't think he wanted to be president in the first place. I think he got roped into it." Joyce Bruegteman, 29, a Republican who is an administrative assistant in Sparta, Wis., was more encouraging. "I feel he is a Christian man struggling to lead his country the best way he can with his Christianity. I'm behind him for that. I know it can't be easy." ANOMALOUS IMAGES http://www.anomalous-images.com <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! 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