-Caveat Lector-

Will the Israeli's shot the moon?

If they do this without massive Palestinian deaths...they might
get away with it. However it is much more likely that thousands
of civilians will die...and Sharon will be be sharing a cell with
Milosevic.
flw

ISRAELIS DEBATE WEST BANK INVASION
By DAN PERRY Associated Press Writer
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JERUSALEM (AP) . After months of violence, Israelis are now openly debating the 
possibility of a military
invasion of the West Bank and Gaza aimed at crushing the Palestinian Authority and 
ending the rule of Yasser
Arafat.

Military and political officials confirm the army has readied plans for stepping up 
the use of force . but the
cost in lives and the possibility of a wider regional conflict clearly are giving the 
government pause in
going all-out.

``The army has plans to cover all the possibilities, but what counts is the Cabinet 
decisions,'' said Raanan
Gissin, spokesman of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

``There are three options: surrender to Arafat, to go ahead with this plan . to occupy 
. or to continue the
current course of restraint and self-defense. The government has said it's committed 
to peace but this
situation can't last forever.''

One military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said a large-scale attack 
was about to be launched
June 2 . the day after a suicide bomber killed 21 young people outside a Tel Aviv 
disco . but it was put off
by Arafat's announcement, under intense European pressure, of a cease-fire.

Talk of a massive assault has since intensified as Israelis have grown increasingly 
exasperated with the
failure of a cease-fire to take hold. Mortar attacks and even bombings inside Israel 
continue, and Jewish
settlers are targeted in near-daily shootings.

The Israeli media has taken to treating the possibility of a serious escalation . even 
a reoccupation of the
West Bank and perhaps Gaza . as something of an inevitability, set to be triggered by 
the next major terrorist
attack.

``An unusual consensus has taken hold (and) all roads are leading to a catastrophe,'' 
wrote Chemi Shalev in
the Maariv daily. ``A few days after the war breaks out, suddenly everyone will 
remember how horrible war is
... when it will be too late.''

Palestinian Planning Minister Nabil Shaath said Sharon . currently visiting Italy . 
presented far-reaching
plans to American and European leaders.

``I know that both President Bush and (French President Jacques) Chirac spoke very 
clearly to Sharon about
this issue and warned him against the great dangers of such a policy,'' he told The 
Associated Press. ``One
has to take this seriously because other threats have been carried out.''

Commentator Haim Hanegbi warned Israel's leaders that if they ordered an invasion they 
could eventually face
the same fate as Slobodan Milosevic, the former Yugoslav president now facing a war 
crimes trial in The Hague.

But Communications Minister Reuven Rivlin told AP that continued attacks ``will not 
leave Israel any
alternatives. I have no doubt the prime minister wants to avoid a war as much as 
possible ... but if Arafat
forces us to go to war, we will go to war.''

The Yesha Council representing the 200,000 Jewish settlers, a key source of support 
for Sharon, issued a
statement Thursday calling on the prime minister to wait no longer and ``order the 
army to ... distance Arafat
from the region and dismantle the Palestinian Authority, the largest terrorist 
organization in the world.''

Industry Minister Dalia Itzik, a member of the moderate Labor Party, warned that such 
pressure from Sharon's
political base might have an effect.

``The scent of war is in the air,'' she said. ``It is as if it is an unimportant 
matter, as though at the end
of this war we won't be burying our dead. Apparently nobody has learned from history. 
I very much hope that
the prime minister will withstand this pressure.''

A top military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AP that one plan 
proposed by the army was
to move into Palestinian areas and arrest the dozens of militants who are behind the 
violence . then move out
and leave Arafat's regime in place.

But Israeli and foreign media have been rife with detailed reports about more 
far-reaching proposals as well.

Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres on Thursday denied a report in the British 
journal Foreign Report, which
said the Israeli military submitted a plan to the Cabinet to send 30,000 troops into 
the Palestinian areas, if
another large-scale Palestinian terror attack takes place.

Under the reported plan, the Israeli troops would seek to destroy the installations of 
the Palestinian
Authority, disarm the Palestinians and cause the flight of the entire leadership, 
including Arafat.

Analysts agree that under such a scenario hundreds of Israelis and probably thousands 
of Palestinians would be
killed.

But Gerald Steinberg, director of the BESA Center for Strategic Studies, said that 
some rhetoric was intended
just for effect.

``One of the reasons that you talk about plans is to send out a warning, not just to 
Arafat but also to the
international community to sit on Arafat not to allow this level of violence,'' he 
said.

``There are still a lot of lesser steps Sharon could take. I would be very surprised 
if (the invasion plan)
was adopted.''


07-12-01 1404EDT

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