-Caveat Lector-
Global Warming Much Worse
Than Predicted, Say Scientists
The Independent - London
http://news.independent.co.uk
7-12-1
Global warming is happening now, caused by human actions, and
threatens the Earth with disaster, the world's leading
atmospheric
scientists insisted yesterday as politicians struggled to repair
the
Kyoto treaty on climate change which the United States torpedoed
in
March.
A 2,000-page UN report on the science and potential impacts of
climate change gave the most authoritative statement yet that the
Earth is warming rapidly, that the main cause is industrial
pollution,
and that the consequences for human society are likely to be
catastrophic.
The report, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), made up of several hundred of the world's most
distinguished meteorologists, including many Americans, is a
substantial slap in the face for US President George Bush, whose
unilateral abrogation of Kyoto has thrown the international
effort to
counter global warming into chaos. It comes on the eve of first
big
meeting, held in Bonn next week, to try to repair the treaty.
The president cited doubts about the science of climate change as
the reason why he would not impose on the American economy the
cuts in industrial gases which Kyoto requires and which the US
signed up to at the original treaty agreement in 1997.
But yesterday the IPCC scientists gave their unqualified support
to
the view that global warming is real. Furthermore, they said,
since
their last report was published six years ago, they found they
had
vastly underestimated the rate at which global temperatures are
rising. They now believe they will rise by as much as 5.8C by the
end of this century, almost twice the increase predicted in
their 1995
report.
This is likely to lead to crop failures, water shortages,
increased
disease and disasters for towns and cities from flooding,
landslides
and sea storm surges, they believe, with the poor developing
countries likely to be hit hardest. The crucial point that
emerges from
the report is that all these new stresses may be happening at the
same time to a world already under great stain from massive
population growth, poverty and pollution.
As the massive three-volume study was published yesterday (by
Britain's Cambridge University Press), politicians across the
globe
were scrambling to put some sort of deal together at next week's
Bonn conference, which will be attended by ministers and
officials
from more than 150 nations.
It is a resumption of the meeting on the Kyoto treaty which
broke up
acrimoniously in The Hague last November with a spectacular
walk-out by Britain's Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott. But
the
argument then was over a technicality in the treaty and the
Americans were still on board. Subsequently, Mr Bush has
repudiated the treaty's basic principle that the industrialised
countries should cut their greenhouse gas emissions and the
chances of the Americans coming back on board are regarded as
minimal.
Bizarrely, the Americans will be present in Bonn as negotiators
on a
treaty they have said they will have nothing to do with, as they
are
signed-up parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change.
Diplomatic efforts were continuing yesterday to build alliances
which
might allow Kyoto to be repaired. Mr Prescott flew into Tokyo for
meetings with the Japanese prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, and
his foreign and environment ministers, in an attempt to persuade
the
Japanese to join the European Union's plan to ratify the treaty
without the Americans. But it looks increasingly likely that the
Japanese will do nothing to upset the US, their main diplomatic
and
trading ally.
European leaders yesterday admitted that confidence in the Kyoto
process may collapse if there is no breakthrough in next week's
Bonn talks. Margot Wallström, European Commissioner for the
Environment, conceded that negotiations in Japan and Australia
had
failed to win a pledge from the two governments to ratify the
treaty
without the involvement of the US.
"I clearly see the risk that the public and stakeholders lose
confidence in the process if we do not make any steps in Bonn,"
Ms
Wallström said.
Olivier Deleuze, the energy minister of Belgium, which holds the
EU's
rotating presidency, added: "If nothing moves forward in Bonn
then
we will lose momentum and the process will sink."
Brussels has still not given up hope of progress and argues that
Japan and Australia remain committed to the Kyoto objectives, and
to the discussions in Bonn.
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/environment/story.jsp?story=83051
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