-Caveat Lector-
Don't worry: Climate changes naturally
By Steven Milloy
USA Today, July 19, 2001
http://www.usatoday.com/news/comment/2001-07-19-ncguest1.htm
President Bush can expect intense lobbying this week from European
leaders, who want him to relax his opposition to the Kyoto treaty to cut
"greenhouse gas" emissions that they believe cause global warming. The
treaty is expected to be a major issue at the summit of leading industrial
countries that starts Friday in Genoa, Italy.
The meeting comes not long after the release of a significant National
Academy of Sciences report on global warming that was reported as saying
unequivocally that the Earth's atmosphere is getting warmer and we humans
are to blame.
So, should we be sweating global warming?
Not really. Global warming is a lot less damaging than most people think —
and in some cases can be beneficial. And, as a closer inspection of the
report reveals, the warming trend is less certain than some scientists
claim.
Among the good effects that could come from global warming:
• Global agriculture will likely benefit. More areas will be frost-free
longer, leading to longer growing seasons.
• A warmer climate will bring increased rainfall. Higher levels of the
greenhouse gas carbon dioxide will lead to more rapid plant growth.
• It is wildly preferred over the alternative: global cooling, which was
alarmists' worry 25 years ago.
The Vikings farmed Greenland about a thousand years ago. Then the climate
cooled. Today, Greenland is a frozen wasteland. Department of Agriculture
maps developed in 1990 show that the U.S. area where crops are at risk of
frost has moved south by more than 100 miles during the past century.
But will these benefits be outweighed by the calamities we've heard about?
Probably not. They've been greatly exaggerated:
• The North Pole isn't melting. Last summer, The New York Times caused a
stir with a story that visitors to the North Pole said the ice was
melting, thanks to global warming. Later, The Times acknowledged that
polar melting is not at all unusual during the summer.
• Glaciers aren't disappearing. "Many glaciers seem to be shrinking, but
others are growing," a U.S. Geological Research Service report said in
June. Researchers could not say what's causing the shrinkage, but glaciers
shrink and grow naturally.
Rising sea levels aren't causing flooding. Some fear warming will cause
rising sea levels through the thermal expansion of water and melting of
non-polar glaciers. New analyses suggest the opposite.
"Sea level has been going up about 7 inches per century for reasons other
than climate change," says physicist S. Fred Singer. "But what the data
show is that when temperatures get (higher), the rate of rise slows
considerably."
• Global warming isn't causing more severe weather. The longer we
accumulate weather records, the more likely we are to find extreme
weather, such as the coldest day or driest month.
• Epidemics aren't spreading. Global warming is supposedly going to
improve living conditions for mosquitoes and other pests that spread
infectious diseases. But Centers for Disease Control scientists discount
these predictions.
Johns Hopkins University epidemiologist D.A. Henderson, who led the
international smallpox eradication program from 1966-1977, says the claims
are based on "a lot of simplistic thinking, which seems to ignore the fact
that as climate changes, man changes as well.
"These scientists argue that breakdowns in public health are to blame for
the recent disease outbreaks.
Often overlooked in the global-warming debate is that climate changes
naturally. Even the National Academy of Sciences report said we can't rule
out that some significant part of these changes are a reflection of
natural variability.
Our climate is changing. It always has and always will. Let's not worry —
or worse, panic — about it. Cooler heads and higher temperatures are
better than the reverse.
Steven Milloy of the Cato Institute is author of the upcoming book, Junk
Science Judo: Self-Defense for Health Scares and Scams.
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