-Caveat Lector-
Sounds to me like CYA for what HAARP might do to us.
On Tue, 24 Jul 2001 08:08:17 -0700 MIKE SPITZER <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
writes:
> -Caveat Lector-
>
> http://www.commondreams.org/headlines01/0713-02.htm
>
>
> Global Warming: Fear Growing Over a Sharp Climate Shift
>
> By Usha Lee McFarling
> July 13, 2001
> Los Angeles Times
>
>
> AMSTERDAM -- As climatologists gather here this week to discuss new
> research on global warming, a disquieting idea has been gaining
> currency --
> the possibility that small shifts in global temperature could lead
> to
> sudden and abrupt climate changes.
>
> What makes such projections important is not their likelihood, which
> is
> uncertain, although a growing number of scientists believe that
> sudden
> changes in climate are a possibility. Instead, the chief
> significance for
> policymakers and the public lies in what the new research suggests
> about
> scientific uncertainty and risk.
>
> Until recently, much of the climate debate has centered on whether
> global
> warming is occurring at all. Most climate models had assumed a slow,
> steady
> increase in temperature and forecast gradual changes with gradual
> effects.
> But newer, more sophisticated models suggest that the Earth's
> climate
> system is "nonlinear" -- in other words, small changes can have
> large
> effects on everything from ocean and land temperatures to drought
> and
> monsoon patterns, icecaps and tropical rain forests.
>
> Though loath to cry wolf, more and more experts are beginning to
> publicly
> discuss--and personally fear-- changes that are far more dramatic,
> and
> potentially faster, than those at the center of discussion so far.
> Some
> events could permanently alter life on Earth.
>
> For example, one projection is that melting Arctic ice could cause a
> flow
> of fresh water into the North Atlantic that would shut down the Gulf
> Stream
> this century. That warm current moderates the European climate, and
> turning
> it off would make a swath of land from London to Stockholm
> miserable.
>
> "Sometimes very small, innocent changes can trigger huge changes,"
> said
> Will Steffen, executive director of the Sweden-based International
> Geosphere- Biosphere Program, or IGBP, which is coordinating the
> Amsterdam
> conference. "Sometimes you hit it with a hammer and nothing happens.
> We
> simply do not know. We are heading into uncharted waters."
>
> In the global warming debate, a chief argument of industry, joined
> by Bush
> administration officials and some scientists, is that the U.S. and
> its
> allies should not rush into potentially costly measures to head off
> possible climate change because our knowledge of the subject is
> limited.
>
> Many scientists, however, say that argument is precisely backward.
> The
> possibility of sudden, dramatic climate shifts means that, although
> there
> is a risk that current models are too pessimistic, there is also a
> substantial risk that they are too optimistic.
>
> A prominent advocate of the go-slow school of thought is Sallie
> Baliunas of
> the Harvard- Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, an expert on how
> the sun
> and its heat output have varied through time.
>
> Her research is funded by federal agencies but she accepts money --
> to
> "travel around and speak" -- from firms that have advocated a
> go-slow
> approach on global warming. She argues that computer models are
> unreliable,
> exaggerate warming trends, fail to adequately take into account
> natural
> fluctuations in temperature and do not explain why no warming has
> been seen
> in the upper atmosphere.
>
> "The best evidence says [climate change] is slow to work, so we have
> a
> window of opportunity," she said.
>
> As advocates of that school of thought note, many climate scientists
> a
> decade ago feared that global warming could cause a catastrophic
> melting of
> the massive West Antarctic ice sheet. Such an event would release
> huge
> amounts of water into the seas, devastating many of the world's
> highly
> populated, low-lying coastal areas.
>
> Recent studies, though, suggest that the Antarctic icecap is stable
> -- and
> actually growing as more precipitation falls there.
>
> Other scientists argue that because knowledge is uncertain, it is
> crucial
> to begin cutting emissions of carbon dioxide and other so-called
> greenhouse
> gases to slow the rate of climate change.
>
> "We could be either under- or overestimating the effect of human
> activities
> on climate," said Robert Watson, chief scientist at the World Bank
> and head
> of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "So why
> should we be
> complacent?"
>
> Paul Crutzen, an atmospheric chemist working in Germany who won the
> Nobel
> Prize for explaining the hole in the atmosphere's ozone layer, makes
> a
> similar point. There is not enough room to take chances with the
> climate,
> he argues.
>
> The chief cause of the hole, which appeared over Antarctica in the
> final
> decades of the 20th century, was chlorofluorocarbons -- chemicals
> used as
> refrigerants and as propellants in spray cans. Had chemists earlier
> in the
> century decided to use bromine instead of chlorine to produce
> coolants -- a
> mere quirk of chemistry -- the ozone hole would have been far
> larger,
> occurred all year and severely affected life, he said.
>
> "Avoiding that was just luck," he said, noting that no scientist had
> predicted the hole or its impact. "We missed something very
> important.
> There may be more of these things around the corner."
>
> What climate watchers fear most are shifts that could "kick the
> climate
> system" into an entirely new state, said Berrien Moore III, chairman
> of the
> IGBP. That could cause "unpredictable consequences with cascading
> effects."
>
> Such shifts have occurred before. A tiny change in the Earth's
> orbit, for
> example, altered precipitation and temperature patterns enough to
> convert
> what was once fertile African savanna into today's dry Sahara.
> "There are
> caves in today's desert that show giraffes and all kinds of other
> animals,"
> said Robert J. Scholes, a South African climatologist.
>
> "Abrupt changes in the Earth's systems can occur when thresholds are
> crossed," said Moore, a climate researcher at the University of New
> Hampshire. "Those changes may involve rather distant, telegraphed
> connections."
>
> One current possibility is the melting of the Arctic sea ice.
>
> Arctic snow and sea ice moderate the climate by covering a massive
> portion
> of the Earth's surface. This white, frozen blanket reflects sunlight
> and
> heat back into space, cooling the planet. If much of the ice melted
> and the
> Arctic Ocean became an open sea, the resulting big, dark patch would
> absorb
> heat and lead to even more warming.
>
> Oleg Anisimov, an expert on the planet's icy "cryosphere" at the
> State
> Hydrological Institute in St. Petersburg, Russia, said Thursday that
> such a
> shift is already occurring. The snow and sea-ice cover in the Arctic
> has
> decreased 10% since the 1970s, and the ice has thinned markedly in
> that
> time, he said. "Such changes are already enhancing the greenhouse
> effect,"
> he said.
>
> Research published June 21 in the journal Nature suggests that
> freshwater
> flows in the Nordic seas are increasing and may be slowing the
> crucial
> circulation of warm water, said Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam
> Institute
> for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
>
> Anisimov said the increased flow of Siberian rivers also provides
> evidence
> that Arctic waters are freshening. Thawing permafrost in the region,
> he
> said, could also fuel warming by allowing decomposing material to
> emit
> greenhouse gases now trapped in frozen soil.
>
>
> ================================================================
> Kadosh, Kadosh, Kadosh, YHVH, TZEVAOT
>
> FROM THE DESK OF:
>
> *Michael Spitzer* <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>
> The Best Way To Destroy Enemies Is To Change Them To Friends
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