-Caveat Lector-

What a neat way to cook the books, pun intended, and make it appear
that global warming is actually taking place.  Dupont needs to sell
more of their new refrigerant worldwide now that their patent on
freon has expired so we need it to appear to be really heating up.
Let's just change the way we compute the chill factor so everything
will appear to be escalating. And of course, outlaw the old freon
and aerosol propellants.  That should get those sales figures up
there.
~Amelia~

   A warmer winter ahead? Just on paper
Terry Collins
Star Tribune
Thursday, August 16, 2001


Those days of a 70-below windchill factor in Minnesota are almost
surely a thing of the past.

That's not because of global warming, but because the windchill
factor will be figured differently from now on.

The National Weather Service is revising how cold it feels in a
given combination of temperature and wind strength. In the past,
the agency measured windchill at an altitude of 33 feet. Now
readings will be taken at 5 feet above the ground, where most of us
actually feel the arctic gusts biting our faces in January and
February.

For example, with the temp at zero and wind at 20 miles per hour,
the windchill would be 39 below under the old formula. Starting in
November, it would be 22 below.

"We may not see numbers like [70 below] ever again," Craig Edwards,
chief meteorologist at the Weather Service in Chanhassen, said
Wednesday. "We have to rethink what our criteria will be for
headlining a forecast with a windchill advisory or warning."

For decades, the windchill factor -- which combines air temperature
and wind speed for a reading of what it supposedly "feels like" --
has been a staple of winter weather forecasts, especially in
Minnesota.

Wednesday's temperature illustrates that windchill knows no season
in Minnesota. At 2 p.m., the temperature in the Twin Cities was 65
degrees, but an 11-mph wind out of the southwest made it feel like
58, the Weather Service said. And that's with more than a month
until fall, which starts Sept. 21.

Last week, Minnesotans were concerned about the heat index, which
factors in humidity to assess how hot it feels. From Aug. 5 to 8,
the heat indices approached 110 to 115 degrees.

A little history

A change in the windchill factor has been a long time coming. It
was created during an Antarctic expedition in the 1940s by U.S.
Army Maj. Paul Siple, a geographer, and geologist Charles F.
Passel. The two researchers hung plastic cylinders of water in the
open air and measured the rate at which the water froze as
temperatures and wind speeds changed.

The Weather Service adopted the windchill index in 1973. But for
decades, scientists have been concerned that the formula
overestimates how cold it actually feels.

Last year, the Weather Service appointed Maurice Blue stein, an
engineering professor at Indiana University-Purdue University in
Indianapolis, and Randall Osczevski, an environmental physicist
with Canada's Defense Department, to develop a new system combining
studies they had done independently over years.

This summer, a dozen volunteers participated in a two-month study
in Canada to examine the body's heat loss in simulated windchill
conditions. The researchers focused on the face and head, the most
exposed surfaces and most likely to suffer frostbite or cause
hypothermia. They presented their findings to American and Canadian
weather officials, who approved them for both countries earlier
this month in Toronto.

Starting in November, the public "will see warmer, more accurate
readings, but the weather won't change," Blue stein said Wednesday.
"It will still be cold."

The new windchill system shows that humans generate heat, unlike
the plastic cylinders used in the Siple-Passel model, Bluestein
said. He added that the current windchill index also ignores human
activity, not to mention sunshine and humidity. The sun's rays can
make air temperature feel 10 degrees warmer, he said.

Marcia Baisch, principal of Katherine Curren Elementary School in
Hopkins, said Wednesday that warmer-sounding windchill readings
will not deter her student recess policy next winter.

"If there's no windchill, we'll go outside," Curren said. "If it's
colder, we'll have indoor recess. We know Minnesota weather can
change very quickly."

Likewise, Edwards said he thinks Minnesotans who love outdoor
winter activities, such as ice fishing and snowmobiling, shouldn't
get a false of security with the new, balmier windchills.

"I have a hard time believing that I'm going to feel warmer this
winter. Cold is cold," he said. "But I'd like to think we're more
informed. Nobody is going to argue that there isn't a windchill in
the air, so we still have to be prepared."

-- Terry Collins is at [EMAIL PROTECTED] .



Return to top © Copyright 2001 Star Tribune. All rights reserved.

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