AB
The Washington Times
www.washtimes.com
Policy on illegal aliens could cost taxpayers $30 billion
Ralph Z. Hallow
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Published 9/6/2001
Rewarding illegal aliens with amnesty would be a financial
loser forAmerican taxpayers and a political loser for both Democrats and
Republicans,according to an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data and a
just-released Zogbypoll.
Although President Bush has ruled out a "blanket amnesty,"he and
Mexican President Vicente Fox are expected to announce the outlinesof a new
immigration agreement that eventually would have the same effectas amnesty.
But such a policy could cost American taxpayers some$30 billion a year,
one study suggests. Low-skill immigrants are a net lossto the nation's
economy, some researchers say, and illegal Mexican immigrantsare 67 percent
more likely to use major welfare programs compared to U.S.-bornfamilies.
The Zogby poll indicates little hope that Mr. Bush andRepublicans can
gain Hispanic support by granting amnesty to Mexican immigrants,while the
same poll shows amnesty is opposed by voters of every politicalallegiance.
Large majorities of likely independent, Republican andDemocrat voters
oppose amnesty, according to the survey of 1,020 likely votersconducted Aug.
25-29 by pollster John Zogby.
The Zogby findingsare particularly noteworthy, said Steven A. Camarota,
research director forthe Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), because it is
the first nationalpublic poll on the subject that asks about amnesty for
illegal immigrantswithout attempting to characterize them with such loaded
terms as "hard-working"or "taxpaying" or as "violating our laws."
Even a slight majorityof likely Hispanic voters oppose amnesty, the
Zogby poll found. Only 15 percentof Hispanics would be more likely to vote
for Mr. Bush's re-election if heembraced amnesty, while 33 percent said they
would be less likely.
A majority of Hispanics -- 53 percent -- said amnesty wouldn't affect their
vote on Mr. Bush one way or the other.
Without helping Mr. Bush among Hispanics, the Zogby polls show theamnesty
issue hurts the president among other voters. The survey shows
bothRepublicans and independent voters would be less likely, by more than a
3-to-1margin, to vote for Mr. Bush if he grants amnesty to illegal aliens.
Despitethe clear potential for political backlash, Mr. Bush has told
aides thatlegalizing working immigrants is the right thing to do.
Mr. Bushand the Mexican president are expected to seek a program that
would allowemployed but illegal Mexican aliens to get temporary, renewable
work permits.
The permits would lead, within six to 10 years, to permanent "green card"
visas, full citizenship and voting rights.
The key will be convincing American voters that such a program is not really
amnesty.
"We might try to persuade people that it's something other than amnesty,but
I'd hate to start so far back as this poll suggests we are," confideda
senior Republican party official.
It has long been believed thateven unskilled immigrants are a boon to
the U.S. economy, but that beliefis under challenge. A CIS study claims that
in 1992 immigrants cost the restof the nation $29 billion more than they
contributed in economic terms.
Some researchers see evidence in the government's own data that
low-skilledimmigrants are a net economic loss to the United States a loss
that is likelyto grow.
"The profits of employers who hire illegal aliens comeat a loss to
taxpayers who, all studies show, must pick up the tab for illegals'costs to
America's schools, health care and criminal justice system," saidPhil Kent,
president of the Southeastern Legal Foundation. "Some may workhard. But their
children, influenced by the entitlements that flow to immigrants,may not. We
simply can't afford to underwrite this growing underclass."
Mr. Camarota, the CIS research director, finds that "immigrants ingeneral and
Mexican households in particular" use more welfare and othermeans-tested
social programs than do native-born Americans.
"Amongworking households, use of means-tested programs by Mexican
immigrants isdramatically higher than that of natives," he said. "Thus, high
rates ofwelfare use by Mexican immigrants are not the result of a lack of
work [butrather] that a large share of Mexican households have low incomes
and unstableemployment histories and thus use a great deal of public
services. ... Theirincomes are low because they have little education, and
making them legalresidents won't change that fact."
Granting immigrants legal residency,as Mr. Bush is considering, does
not substantially improve the welfare outlook:"Legal Mexican immigrants are
more than twice as likely to use many means-testedsocial programs as are
people born here," Mr. Camarota said.
Yetillegal immigrants use welfare programs at even higher rates. While
15 percentof native households use at least one major welfare program, that
increasesby two-thirds, to 25 percent, for households headed by an illegal
Mexicanimmigrant, Mr. Camarota's analysis found.
"The findings also suggestthat one possible unintended consequence of
legalizing Mexican illegals alreadyin the country would be to substantially
increase their use of means-testedprograms," he said.
An analyst at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, voices a
similar view.
"Clearly, the bulk of immigrants from Mexico and South America
havecharacteristics that make them very prone for welfare," said Robert
Rector,Heritage senior analyst, citing a recent government report that the
unwedbirth rate among U.S. Hispanics is now at 42.1 percent.
Copyright � 2001 News World Communications, Inc. All rights reserved.
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