-Caveat Lector- From http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,2763,551081,00.html }}}>Begin Trade US strikes could lose Britain £6bn from Middle East Business fears kneejerk retaliation Special report: Terrorism in the US Special report: Israel and the Middle East Guardian Unlimited Money Terry Macalister Thursday September 13, 2001 The Guardian Business leaders last night warned that up to £6bn a year in trade and investment could be jeopardised by any kneejerk strike by the US against Middle East targets. Alarm expressed by the Middle East Association, which promotes business links between Britain and Arab countries, came as oil, defence and banking firms heightened security arrangements in the region. Brian Constant, director general of the Middle East Association, expressed concern that US president might be tempted to launch military action there. "This is an incredibly important region for British business. I am worried there is a crazy kneejerk reaction on what turns out to be the wrong target as has happened in the past. If Britain gave its support for such a mo ve it would be very serious for UK commercial interests," he explained. Shell, BAE Systems and HSBC are among the leading British-based firms active in the Middle East either directly or through subsidiaries. They help draw in some £3bn in physical trade a year with a further £3bn estimated t o come from invisibles such as insurance and shipping. London is also a magnet for inward investment, often from wealthy Arabs who are among the most active foreign buyers of houses and land in the British Isles. Even difficult political relations between Britain and nations such as Iran and Libya has not stopped a robust level of contact in both directions. State oil companies from Iran and Libya control substantial global purchasing operations in London. British oil companies are increasingly excited about prospects for contracts in both these nations despite US sanctions, which have been recently renewed. Shell is active in a range of Middle East countries including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the United Arab Emirates. A spokeswoman said its first actions in the aftermath of the US attacks was to look after the safety of its employees. Asked specifically about the Middle East, she added: "We are reviewing our security and advising staff what measures they need to adopt. For obvious reasons I cannot go into exactly what that involves." BAE Systems, a prime contractor in the Al-Yamamah Tornado jet and Hawk Trainer aircraft contract with Saudi Arabia, said it too was taking the appropriate measures to keep its 5,000 staff safe. "We have a well tuned organisation in Saudi and we have raised levels of security in conjunction with the UK and Saudi governments, but people are always aware of the political sensitivity of the country and the region," said a spokesman. City analysts said oil companies might benefit from a temporary raising of crude prices while defence firms might win more orders as countries beef up their military might. They saw no gainers if the Middle East was attacked. 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