Assalamu'alaikum,

KING'S RANSOM

by SEYMOUR M. HERSH

How vulnerable are the Saudi royals?

http://www.newyorker.com/FACT/?011022fa_FACT1

Since 1994 or earlier, the National Security Agency has been collecting
electronic intercepts of conversations between members of the Saudi
Arabian royal family, which is headed by King Fahd. The intercepts depict
a regime increasingly corrupt, alienated from the country's religious rank
and file, and so weakened and frightened that it has brokered its future
by channelling hundreds of millions of dollars in what amounts to
protection money to fundamentalist groups that wish to overthrow it.

The intercepts have demonstrated to analysts that by 1996 Saudi money was
supporting Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda and other extremist groups in
Afghanistan, Lebanon, Yemen, and Central Asia, and throughout the Persian
Gulf region. "Ninety-six is the key year," one American intelligence
official told me. "Bin Laden hooked up to all the bad guysit's like the
Grand Alliance and had a capability for conducting large-scale
operations." The Saudi regime, he said, had "gone to the dark side."

In interviews last week, current and former intelligence and military
officials portrayed the growing instability of the Saudi regimeand the
vulnerability of its oil reserves to terrorist attackas the most immediate
threat to American economic and political interests in the Middle East.
The officials also said that the Bush Administration, like the Clinton
Administration, is refusing to confront this reality, even in the
aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks.

The Saudis and the Americans arranged a meeting between Defense Secretary
Donald Rumsfeld and King Fahd during a visit by Rumsfeld to Saudi Arabia
shortly before the beginning of the air war in Afghanistan, and pictures
of the meeting were transmitted around the world. The United States,
however, has known that King Fahd has been incapacitated since suffering a
severe stroke, in late 1995. A Saudi adviser told me last week that the
King, with round-the-clock medical treatment, is able to sit in a chair
and open his eyes, but is usually unable to recognize even his oldest
friends. Fahd is being kept on the throne, the N.S.A. intercepts indicate,
because of a bitter family power struggle. Fahd's nominal successor is
Crown Prince Abdullah, his half brother, who is to some extent the
de-facto rulerhe and Prince Sultan, the defense minister, were the people
Rumsfeld really came to see. But there is infighting about money: Abdullah
has been urging his fellow-princes to address the problem of corruption in
the kingdomunsuccessfully, according to the intercepts. "The only reason
Fahd's being kept alive is so Abdullah can't become king," a former White
House adviser told me.

The American intelligence officials have been particularly angered by the
refusal of the Saudis to help the F.B.I. and the C.I.A. run "traces"that
is, name checks and other background informationon the nineteen men, more
than half of them believed to be from Saudi Arabia, who took part in the
attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. "They knew that once
we started asking for a few traces the list would grow," one former
official said. "It's better to shut it down right away." He pointed out
that thousands of disaffected Saudis have joined fundamentalist groups
throughout the Middle East. Other officials said that there is a growing
worry inside the F.B.I. and the C.I.A. that the actual identities of many
of those involved in the attacks may not be known definitively for months,
if ever. Last week, a senior intelligence official confirmed the lack of
Saudi coperation and told me, angrily, that the Saudis "have only one
constantand it's keeping themselves in power."

The N.S.A. intercepts reveal the hypocrisy of many in the Saudi royal
family, and why the family has become increasingly estranged from the vast
majority of its subjects. Over the years, unnerved by the growing strength
of the fundamentalist movement, it has failed to deal with the underlying
issues of severe unemployment and inadequate education, in a country in
which half the population is under the age of eighteen. Saudi Arabia's
strict interpretation of Islam, known as Wahhabism, and its use of
mutawwa'inreligious policeto enforce prayer, is rivalled only by the
Taliban's. And yet for years the Saudi princesthere are thousands of
themhave kept tabloid newspapers filled with accounts of their drinking
binges and partying with prostitutes, while taking billions of dollars
from the state budget. The N.S.A. intercepts are more specific. In one
call, Prince Nayef, who has served for more than two decades as interior
minister, urges a subordinate to withhold from the police evidence of the
hiring of prostitutes, presumably by members of the royal family.
According to the summary, Nayef said that he didn't want the "client list"
released under any circumstances.

The intercepts produced a stream of sometimes humdrum but often riveting
intelligence from the telephone calls of several senior members of the
royal family, including Abdullah; Nayef; Sultan, whose son Prince Bandar
has been the Saudi ambassador to the United States since 1983; and Prince
Salman, the governor of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's capital. There was constant
telephoning about King Fahd's health after his stroke, and scrambling to
take advantage of the situation. On January 8, 1997, Prince Sultan told
Bandar about a flight that he and Salman had shared with the King. Sultan
complained that the King "barely spoke to anyone," according to the
summary of the intercept, because he was "too medicated." The King, Sultan
added, was "a prisoner on the plane."

Sultan's comments became much more significant a few days later, when the
N.S.A. intercepted a conversation in which Sultan told Bandar that the
King had agreed to a complicated exchange of fighter aircraft with the
United States that would bring five F-16s into the Royal Saudi Air Force.
Fahd was evidently incapable of making such an agreement, or of preventing
anyone from dropping his name in a money-making deal.

In the intercepts, princes talk openly about bilking the state, and even
argue about what is an acceptable percentage to take. Other calls indicate
that Prince Bandar, while serving as ambassador, was involved in arms
deals in London, Yemen, and the Soviet Union that generated millions of
dollars in "commissions." In a PBS "Frontline" interview broadcast on
October 9th, Bandar, asked about the reports of corruption in the royal
family, was almost upbeat in his response. The family had spent nearly
four hundred billion dollars to develop Saudi Arabia, he said. "If you
tell me that building this whole country . . . we misused or got corrupted
with fifty billion, I'll tell you, 'Yes.'. . . So what? We did not invent
corruption, nor did those dissidents, who are so genius, discover it."

The intercepts make clear, however, that Crown Prince Abdullah was
insistent on stemming the corruption. In November of 1996, for example, he
complained about the billions of dollars that were being diverted by royal
family members from a huge state-financed project to renovate the mosque
in Mecca. He urged the princes to get their off-budget expenses under
control; such expenses are known as the hiding place for payoff money.
(Despite its oil revenues, Saudi Arabia has been running a budget deficit
for more than a decade, and now has a large national debt.) A few months
later, according to the intercepts, Abdullah blocked a series of
real-estate deals by one of the princes, enraging members of the royal
family. Abdullah further alarmed the princes by issuing a decree declaring
that his sons would not be permitted to go into partnerships with foreign
companies working in the kingdom.

Abdullah is viewed by Sultan and other opponents as a leader who could
jeopardize the kingdom's most special foreign relationshipsomeone who is
willing to penalize the United States, and its oil and gas companies,
because of Washington's support for Israel. In an intercept dated July 13,
1997, Prince Sultan called Bandar in Washington, and informed him that he
had told Abdullah "not to be so confrontational with the United States."

The Fahd regime was a major financial backer of the Reagan
Administration's anti-Communist campaign in Latin America and of its
successful proxy war in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union. Oil money
bought the Saudis enormous political access and leverage in Washington.
Working through Prince Bandar, they have contributed hundreds of millions
of dollars to charities and educational programs here. American
construction and oil companies do billions of dollars' worth of business
every year with Saudi Arabia, which is the world's largest oil producer.
At the end of last year, Halliburton, the Texas-based oil-supply business
formerly headed by Vice-President Dick Cheney, was operating a number of
subsidiaries in Saudi Arabia.

In the Clinton era, the White House did business as usual with the Saudis,
urging them to buy American goods, like Boeing aircraft. The kingdom was
seen as an American advocate among the oil-producing nations of the Middle
East. The C.I.A. was discouraged from conducting any risky intelligence
operations inside the country and, according to one former official, did
little recruiting among the Saudi population, which limited the United
States government's knowledge of the growth of the opposition to the royal
family.

In 1994, Mohammed al-Khilewi, the first secretary at the Saudi Mission to
the United Nations, defected and sought political asylum in the United
States. He brought with him, according to his New York lawyer, Michael J.
Wildes, some fourteen thousand internal government documents depicting the
Saudi royal family's corruption, human-rights abuses, and financial
support for terrorists. He claimed to have evidence that the Saudis had
given financial and technical support to Hamas, the extremist Islamic
group whose target is Israel. There was a meeting at the lawyer's office
with two F.B.I. agents and an Assistant United States Attorney. "We gave
them a sampling of the documents and put them on the table," Wildes told
me last week. "But the agents refused to accept them." He and his client
heard nothing further from federal authorities. Al-Khilewi, who was
granted asylum, is now living under cover.

The Saudis were also shielded from Washington's foreign-policy
bureaucracy. A government expert on Saudi affairs told me that Prince
Bandar dealt exclusively with the men at the top, and never met with desk
officers and the like. "Only a tiny handful of people inside the
government are familiar with U.S.-Saudi relations," he explained. "And
that is purposeful."

In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, the
royal family has repeatedly insisted that Saudi Arabia has made no
contributions to radical Islamic groups. When the Saudis were confronted
by press reports that some of the substantial funds that the monarchy
routinely gives to Islamic charities may actually have gone to Al Qaeda
and other terrorist networks, they denied any knowledge of such transfers.
The intercepts, however, have led many in the intelligence community to
conclude otherwise.

The Bush Administration has chosen not to confront the Saudi leadership
over its financial support of terror organizations and its refusal to help
in the investigation. "As far as the Saudi Arabians go, they've been
nothing but coperative," President Bush said at a news conference on
September 24th. The following day, the Saudis agreed to formally cut off
diplomatic relations with the Taliban leadership in Afghanistan. Eight
days later, at a news conference in Saudi Arabia with Prince Sultan, the
defense minister, Donald Rumsfeld was asked if he had given the Saudis a
list of the September 11th terrorist suspects for processing by their
intelligence agencies. Rumsfeld, who is admired by many in the press for
his bluntness, answered evasively: "I am, as I said, not involved with the
Federal Bureau of Investigation that is conducting the investigation. . .
. I have every reason to believe that that relationship between our two
countries is as close, that any information I am sure has been made
available to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia."

The Saudis gave Rumsfeld something in returnpermission for U.S. forces to
use a command-and-control center, built before the Gulf War, in the
pending air war against the Taliban. Over the past few years, the Saudis
have also allowed the United States to use forward bases on Saudi soil for
special operations, as long as there was no public mention of the
arrangements.

While the intelligence-community members I spoke with praised the Air
Force and the Navy for their performance in Afghanistan last week, which
did much to boost morale in the military and among the American citizenry,
they were crestfallen about an incident that occurred on the first night
of the waran incident that was emblematic, they believe, of the
constraints placed by the government on the military's ability to wage war
during the last decade.

That night, an unmanned Predator reconnaissance aircraft, under the
control of the C.I.A., was surveilling the roads leading out of Kabul. The
Predator, which costs forty million dollars and cruises at speeds as slow
as eighty miles an hour, is equipped with imaging radar and an array of
infrared and television cameras that are capable of beaming
high-resolution images to ground stations around the world. The plane was
equipped with two powerful Hellfire missiles, designed as antitank
weapons. The Predator identified a group of cars and trucks fleeing the
capital as a convoy carrying Mullah Omar, the Taliban leader. Under a
previously worked-out agreement, one knowledgeable official said, the
C.I.A. did not have the authority to "push the button." Nor did the nearby
command-and-control suite of the Fifth Fleet, in Bahrain, where many of
the war plans had been drawn up. Rather, the decision had to be made by
the officers on duty at the headquarters of the United States Central
Command, or CENTCOM, at MacDill Air Force Base, in Florida.

The Predator tracked the convoy to a building where Omar, accompanied by a
hundred or so guards and soldiers, took cover. The precise sequence of
events could not be fully learned, but intelligence officials told me that
there was an immediate request for a full-scale assault by fighter
bombers. At that point, however, word came from General Tommy R. Franks,
the CENTCOM commander, saying, as the officials put it, "My JAG"Judge
Advocate General, a legal officer"doesn't like this, so we're not going to
fire." Instead, the Predator was authorized to fire a missile in front of
the building"bounce it off the front door," one officer said, "and see who
comes out, and take a picture." CENTCOM suggested that the Predator then
continue to follow Omar. The Hellfire, however, could not target the area
in front of the buildingin military parlance, it could not "get a
signature" on the dirt thereand it was then agreed that the missile would
attack a group of cars parked in front, presumably those which had carried
Omar and his retinue. The missile was fired, and it "obliterated the
cars," an official said. "But no one came out."

It was learned later from an operative on the ground that Omar and his
guards had indeed been in the convoy and had assumed at the time that the
firing came from rocket-propelled grenades launched by nearby troops from
the Northern Alliance. A group of soldiers left the building and looked
for the enemy. They found nothing, and Omar and his convoy departed. A
short time later, the building was targeted and destroyed by F-18s. Mullah
Omar survived.

Days afterward, top Administration officials were still seething about the
incident. "If it was a fuckup, I could live with it," one senior official
said. "But it's not a fuckupit's an outrage.This isn't like you're six
years old and your mother calls you to come in for lunch and you say,
'Time out.' If anyone thinks otherwise, go look at the World Trade Center
or the Pentagon." A senior military officer viewed the failure to strike
immediately as a symptom of "a cultural issue""a slow degradation of the
system due to political correctness: 'We want you to kill the guy, but not
the guy next to him.' No collateral damage." Others saw the cultural
problem as one of bureaucratic, rather than political, correctness. Either
way, the failure to attack has left Defense Secretary Rumsfeld "kicking a
lot of glass and breaking doors," the officer said. "But in the end I
don't know if it'll mean any changes."

A Pentagon planner also noted that some of the camps the bombers were
hitting were empty. In fact, he added, it became evident even before the
bombing that troops of the Northern Alliance had moved into many of the
unused Taliban camps. The Alliance soldiers came up with a novel way of
alerting American planners to their new location, the officer said: "They
walked around holding up white sheets so when the satellites came by
they're saying, 'Hey, we're the good guys.' "

The American military response has triggered alarm in the international
oil community and among intelligence officials who have been briefed on a
still secret C.I.A. study, put together in the mid-eighties, of the
vulnerability of the Saudi fields to terrorist attack. The report was "so
sensitive," a former C.I.A. officer told me, "that it was put on typed
paper," and not into the agency's computer system, meaning that
distribution was limited to a select few. According to someone who saw the
report, it concluded that with only a small amount of explosives
terrorists could take the oil fields off line for two years.

The concerns, both in America and in Saudi Arabia, about the security of
the fields have become more urgent than ever since September 11th. A
former high-level intelligence official depicted the Saudi rulers as
nervously "sitting on a keg of dynamite"that is, the oil reserves.
"They're petrified that somebody's going to light the fuse."

"The United States is hostage to the stability of the Saudi system," a
prominent Middle Eastern oil man, who did not wish to be cited by name,
told me in a recent interview. "It's time to start facing the truth. The
war was declared by bin Laden, but there are thousands of bin Ladens. They
are setting the gamethe agenda. It's a new form of war. This fabulous
military machine you have is completely useless." The oil man, who has
worked closely with the Saudi leadership for three decades, added, "People
like me have been deceiving you. We talk about how you don't understand
Islam, but it's a vanilla analysis. We try to please you, but we've been
aggrieved for years."

The Saudi regime "will explode in time," he said. "It has been playing a
delicate game." As for the terrorists responsible for the September 11th
attacks, he said, "Now they decide the timing. If they do a similar
operation in Saudi Arabia, the price of oil will go up to one hundred
dollars a barrel"more than four times what it is today.

In the nineteen-eighties, in an effort to relieve political pressure on
the regime, the Saudi leadership relinquished some of its authority to the
mutawwa'in and permitted them to have a greater role in day-to-day life.
One U.S. government Saudi expert complained last week that religious
leaders had been allowed to take control of the press and the educational
system. "Today, two-thirds of the Saudi Ph.D.s are in Islamic studies," a
former Presidential aide told me. There was little attempt over the years
by American diplomats or the White House to moderate the increasingly
harsh rhetoric about the U.S. "The United States was caught up in private
agreements"with the Saudi princes"while this shit was spewing in the Saudi
press," the former aide said. "That was a huge mistake."

A senior American diplomat who served many years in Saudi Arabia recalled
his foreboding upon attending a training exercise at the kingdom's most
prestigious military academy, in Riyadh: "It was hot, and I watched the
cadets doing drills. The officers were lounging inside a suradiq"a large
pavilion"with cold drinks, calling out orders on loudspeakers. I thought
to myself, How many of these young men would follow and die for these
officers?" The diplomat said he came away from his most recent tour in
Saudi Arabia convinced that "it wouldn't take too much for a group of
twenty or thirty fundamentalist enlisted men to take charge. How would the
kingdom deal with the shock of something ruthless, small, highly
motivated, and of great velocity?"

There is little that the United States can do now, the diplomat said. "The
Saudis have been indulged for so many decades.They are so spoiled. They've
always had it their way. There's hardly anything we could say that would
impede the 'majestic instancy' of their progress. We're their
janissaries." He was referring to the captives who became lite troops of
the Ottoman Empire.

"The policy dilemma is this," a senior general told me. "How do we help
the Saudis make a transition without throwing them over the side?"
Referring to young fundamentalists who have been demonstrating in the
Saudi streets, he said, "The kids are bigger than the Daddy."

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