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Bin Laden, Dead?
A Chinese report says so.
By Kathryn Jean Lopez, NRO Executive Editor
October 25, 2001 12:10 p.m.
National Review
http://www.nationalreview.com/interrogatory/interrogatory102501b.shtml
James S. Robbins, a professor of international relations at the National
Defense University's School for National Defense Studies & NRO contributor.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not
necessarily reflect the views of NDU, the Department of Defense, or the
government of the United States.
Kathryn Jean Lopez: There are reports on the Internet and in a Japanese
newspaper that Mullah Omar Mohammed and Osama bin Laden are dead. Where are
these coming from and should we have any reason to believe them ‹ over, say,
the claims of the Taliban?
James S. Robbins: On October 24 a Chinese internet news site, Zhongxin Wang,
ran a piece describing in detail the purported assassination of Osama bin
Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar by members of their retinue at
an underground base near Kandahar on October 16. They were both shot twice
in the back. One of bin Laden's sons and two of Omar's were also killed. The
story was picked up today by the Tokyo-based Yomiuru Shimbun, the largest
daily newspaper in Japan. Of course rumors and war go hand in hand, and
without proof one way or another what is one to think?
Lopez: Last week there was a meeting in Afghanistan with top Taliban leaders
after which they announced that the Taliban would fight under other leaders
if Mullah Omar dies. This meeting began on October 16, the day this Chinese
site claims Omar was shot. Coincidence?
Robbins: Well, there were some strange things going on in Afghanistan last
week. The Pakistani press reported that Mullah Omar had convened a Shura
(council meeting) in Kandahar on the 16th of more than 100 Taliban
commanders. This alone strikes one as unusual. How could they get to
Kandahar safely? And, once there, wouldn't they present a perfect target for
the allied forces? Maybe they were ‹ the meeting lasted until the 19th,
which was the day of the U.S. Ranger raid on Kandahar. When the Shura ended
the Taliban issued some odd comments. For example, they "advised" Mullah
Omar to "control the command of the Taliban army by remaining underground,"
and also "directed Usama bin Ladin and his associates to remain
underground." They also set up a line of succession should Omar be
"martyred," and "expressed their determination to remain united until the
end, even after their leader is martyred." It might sound like prudent
planning to establish a line of succession ‹ the United States has one for
example ‹ but in an authoritarian regime it is rare. Usually it amounts to a
death sentence for the person tapped as the successor. In this case four
Taliban commanders were named as possible successors ‹ which could mean that
the Shura could not decide on a single successor, and a power struggle is
underway. The AP report of the arrest of 100 people in Kandahar also fits
the puzzle.
And one more thing to consider: On Oct. 16, Taliban Corps Commander Mullah
Muhammad Akhtar Usmani, one of the people named as a possible successor to
Omar, made a lengthy statement that Omar and his family were "safe at their
residence" and "completely unharmed." But no one had claimed otherwise.
Lopez: What would be a possible motivation for the Taliban to kill either
Mullah Omar or Osama bin Laden? And if they did, why wouldn't they come
right out and blame it on us, possibly, even inciting international calls
for the U.S. to end the strikes on Afghanistan?
Robbins: Motives are hard to judge. The assassins were clearly on a suicide
mission. We can't know for whom they were working; maybe they were just
Afghan patriots. The alleged attack coincided with an unscheduled meeting
between Taliban Foreign Minister Wakil Ahmad Mutawakkil (another of the
possible successors and a so-called "moderate") and U.S. Secretary of State
Colin Powell. It was rumored that Mutawakkil was defecting, but he returned
to Afghanistan. Not much has been heard of him since he pledged "complete
trust in the leadership of Wakil Mutawakkil" in an interview on al Jazeera
television October 19. It is satisfying to think that Omar and bin Laden are
dead, and we should know soon if this is true. This kind of thing can't stay
secret for long. If they are dead then we can assume that the faction that
killed them has been expunged and the Taliban has decided to fight on ‹
otherwise they would have announced the martyrdom, no doubt fighting the
American invaders or some such thing. If they aren't dead, this could be
disinformation, but by whom and for what purpose is unclear. It hardly
benefits the Taliban for these stories to get out. I think they should be
asked demonstrate unequivocally that they are alive. The United States
should sic the White House press corps on the Taliban spokesman until we get
some answers.
If bin Laden and Omar are alive, let them show themselves, preferably in an
open area away from hospitals and mosques, on a clear day. Just stay there
until we can confirm it.
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