-Caveat Lector- ----- Original Message ----- From: "Paul R. Lehto" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Cc: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Sunday, November 11, 2001 7:56 PM Subject: [POM] Gore Wins FL Statewide; Bush Wins Ltd Recounts
The systematic studies of Florida by a large consortium of media outlets are in: If a statewide recount of ALL ballots had been done: Gore won, under *all six different standards* that could be applied to the overvotes and undervotes. But Gore did not ask for a statewide recount, under any standard. He asked for a limited recount in four counties but was shot down by the US Supreme Court, which terminated all counting efforts. Had that four-county recount been done, Bush would have won anyway. Here's the url for the article: http://www.msnbc.com/news/656172.asp?pne=msn Here are the different ways to count the ballots and what the results would have been: FOUR COUNTIES. If Gore had been successful in his initial efforts for recounts of all ballots in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Broward and Volusia counties. Result: Bush ahead by 225 votes. STATEWIDE UNDERVOTE: If the state Supreme Court-ordered recount on Dec. 9 had not been stopped by the U.S. Supreme Court. The review considered this scenario under two different criteria — one that followed the court’s literal instruction to examine only undervotes and another that followed the intentions of each county’s election officials, some of whom told reporters they also would examine overvotes. Result: Bush ahead, with a range of 430 to 493. In the review of all the state’s disputed ballots, Gore edged ahead under all six scenarios for counting all undervotes and overvotes statewide: PREVAILING STANDARD: County election officials told Florida journalists how they would define votes if required to do a recount and in this scenario the majority standard was imposed statewide. In punch-card counties, ballots with at least one corner of a chad detached counted as votes. In optical scan counties, where voters are required to fill in blanks on a paper ballot — like on a standardized test — ballots with any affirmative marks counted. That means a vote counted even if the oval was not completely filled in or a candidate’s name was circled or underlined; so did ballots on which a voter correctly filled in the oval and also wrote the same candidate ’s name in the space for write-ins. Result: Gore ahead by 60 votes. TWO-CORNER STANDARD: At least two corners of a chad must be detached to count as a vote, a position that had been argued, at times, by Bush supporters. Same as prevailing standard for optical scan ballots. Result: Gore ahead by 105 votes. MOST INCLUSIVE: Ballots with dimpled chads count as votes, an argument often made by Gore supporters. Same as prevailing standard for optical scan ballots. Result: Gore ahead by 107 votes. LEAST INCLUSIVE: Only cleanly punched chads count as valid votes. For optical scan, only fully filled ovals and those ballots on which a voter filled in the oval and wrote in the candidate’s name, too. Result: Gore ahead by 115 votes. COUNTY-by-COUNTY: Drawn from the county election officials. It accepts results from Broward and Volusia counties because those counties completed hand counts that were included in state-certified election totals. For those counties that said they would not count overvotes, relies on prevailing standard. Result: Gore ahead by 171 votes. PALM BEACH STANDARD: Based on a standard Palm Beach election officials briefly used, this counts dimpled chads as valid votes if a pattern of dimpled chads exists elsewhere on the same ballot. Same as prevailing standard for optical scan ballots. Result: Gore ahead by 42 votes. Civil Practice in King & Snohomish Counties: LAW OFFICES OF PAUL R. 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