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Economist Panel Says Recession Began March 2001

November 26, 2001 11:35 AM ET


By Glenn Somerville

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The struggling U.S. economy slid into recession in
March and its condition was worsened by the Sept. 11 attacks, a member of a
panel of economists that officially dates U.S. recessions said on Monday.

The announcement by the National Bureau of Economic Research confirmed that a
record expansion that began in March 1991 -- after the last nine-month
recession that began in mid-1990 -- was snapped exactly a decade later.

"The committee is satisfied that the total contraction in the economy is
sufficient to merit the determination that a recession is under way," the
NBER's business cycle dating committee said.

It will be the 10th recession for the world's largest economy since the end
of World War Two.

The institution said economic activity peaked in March 2001, adding: "A peak
marks the end of an expansion and the beginning of a recession."

A recession is commonly defined as two straight quarters of shrinking gross
domestic product (GDP).

A member of the panel, Ben Bernanke, told Reuters the key factor was that job
creation had begun to falter, but added the situation had been aggravated by
the hijack attacks of Sept. 11, which helped trigger the recession call.

"The key factor was aggregate employment which peaked in March," Bernanke
said. "The other factors related to manufacturing, such as industrial
production. Sales peaked earlier, suggesting the manufacturing recession had
already began, but only by March did it appear to have spread to the rest of
economy for a broader recession."

The panel carefully weighs all the factors involved in assessing the pace of
economic activity, and makes its call only when it feels certain that growth
has stalled. It knew the economy had slowed prior to Sept. 11 but had not
decided to call it a recession at that time.

"The attacks clearly deepened the contraction and may have been an important
factor in turning the episode into a recession," the official NBER
announcement said.

Bernanke said the economy was "very much on the borderline" before the
attacks but was tipped over by the Sept. 11 attacks, which effectively
brought national commerce to a halt for a few days and left lasting scars on
sectors like airlines and the tourism industry.

"Without Sept. 11 it would have been a very close call," Bernanke said. "Sept
11 pushed us deep enough so that it qualified as a recession."

President Bush, speaking to reporters at the White House, said the
declaration of a recession added urgency to the need to get a package of
economic stimulus measures approved by Congress and passed into law.

"I knew the economy was not in good shape right after I took office," said
Bush, who was inaugurated in January.




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