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http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=24790

STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Sudan: Budding U.S. ally?
America will likely decrease support for Christian
minority

-------------------------------------------------------

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The U.N. Security Council has lifted sanctions against
Sudan, which won U.S. support for lifting the
sanctions by providing intelligence on terrorists.
Further cooperation will give the United States a
vital source of intelligence on terrorist networks and
prevent Sudan from again becoming a safe haven for
Islamic radicals. But Khartoum's cooperation will
require reduced U.S. support for southern rebels, a
potential bone of contention in U.S. domestic
politics.

The U.N. Security Council lifted 5-year-old sanctions
against Sudan Sept. 28 after the United States
abstained from the vote. Earlier, the Sudanese
government had provided Washington with important
intelligence on Saudi exile Osama bin Laden, who lived
in Sudan from 1991 to 1996.

The United States still lists Sudan as a state sponsor
of terrorism, although the intelligence won its
support for lifting the U.N. sanctions. Washington's
own economic sanctions against the east African nation
remain in place. But the recent cooperation has opened
a dialogue that could herald the start of a new era in
Sudanese-U.S. relations and ultimately lead to the
lifting of U.S. sanctions. Washington will expand its
cooperation with Khartoum, reducing its support for
Sudan's southern rebels in the process.

Sudan could play a pivotal role in the U.S.-led
coalition against terrorism. First, it would add one
more Muslim country to the list of U.S. coalition
partners. Second, Khartoum is uniquely positioned to
provide a wealth of information on bin Laden's
activities, investments, networks and operations.
Third, collaboration in the counterterrorism effort
would prevent Sudan from again becoming a haven for
international terrorists.

But a shift in U.S. policy is necessary for gaining
long-term collaboration from the government of
President Omar al-Bashir. For the past four years,
relations between the two nations have been strained.
In 1997, the United States levied economic sanctions
against Sudan, condemning the government as a sponsor
of terrorism and an oppressor of the country's
Christian minority. The events of Sept. 11, however,
have altered Washington's global priorities, and
collaboration with Khartoum will now become vital.

Khartoum's cooperation could advance U.S. efforts to
dismantle the Saudi exile's financial network.
Already, the French bank Credit Lyonnais is freezing
assets belonging to Sudan's Al Shamal Islamic Bank,
which is suspected of involvement with bin Laden, the
Associated Press reported Oct. 1. Al Shamal was
reportedly established by a $50 million investment
from bin Laden – although bank officials have denied
he is a stakeholder – and is closely tied to Sudan's
ruling National Islamic Front. Coordinating U.S. and
Sudanese policies will be key to shutting down bin
Laden's financial access.

Sudan's help will be contingent on America reducing
its support for southern rebels. The United States,
through the U.N.-led humanitarian project Operation
Lifeline Sudan, has been the largest provider of
external aid to the rebel Sudanese People's Liberation
Movement and its militant wing, the Sudanese People's
Liberation Army. In fact the United States gave $161
million in humanitarian aid to Sudan in fiscal 2001,
according to the U.S. Agency for International
Development. The vast majority of goes to refugee
camps in southern Sudan and neighboring Kenya and
Uganda, which are used as rear bases and lines of
supply for the rebels.

Washington would find it hard to cut off that support
without controversy. Following the Sept. 11 attacks,
the Congressional Black Caucus and several
conservative Christian groups with missions in
southern Sudan immediately called for the U.S.
government to take action against Khartoum, according
to the U.N. Integrated Regional Information Network
Sept. 28.

Washington's shift from supporting the rebel army to
cooperating with the government will be difficult to
achieve outright. But the process may already have
begun. For example Congress has delayed legislation
intended to impose stock market sanctions on companies
doing business in Sudan. Such legislation would have
forced the likes of Canadian oil company Talisman,
which has holdings in Sudan, off the New York Stock
Exchange.

The shift could be a boon for Sudan's military-led
government. Gen. Bashir has spent the past year trying
to undercut Islamist groups in the country. By placing
former parliament speaker and ally Hassan al-Turabi
under house arrest, Bashir essentially quelled rising
opposition. But maintaining that control will be
difficult. Turabi, a bin Laden associate and prominent
Muslim leader, and his People's National Congress
enjoy broad support among Sudan's northern Islamic
population.



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