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A Compilation of Evidence and Comments on the Source of the Mailed
Anthrax
Barbara Hatch Rosenberg, Federation of American Scientists
revised December 10, 2001
All the available evidence indicates that the source of the mailed
anthrax, or the information and materials to make it, is a US
government program.
ANTHRAX STRAIN
All letter samples contain the same strain of anthrax, corresponding
to the AMES strain in the N. Arizona State University database (which
has been used for identification). The Ames substrain possessed by N.
Arizona State is referred to herein as the "reference strain." That
strain was obtained from Porton Down (UK) in the mid-90's (the sample
was marked "October 1932"); Porton had gotten it from Fort Detrick.
A 2000 paper by M. Hugh-Jones, PJ Jackson, P. Keim et al says that the Ames strain
played a central role in the US BW program [i.e., before 1969]. Hugh-Jones says he
learned that from David Huxsoll, Former Commander, USAM
RIID. However, he says Vollum 1B was the strain stockpiled (at least in the early days
of the US biological weapons program). The search for better strains undoubtedly
continued, leading the US program to prefer the Ames
strain because of its high virulence.
The Ames strain is used now in the US biodefense program for testing vaccines etc.
The Ames reference strain in the N. Arizona collection is probably the earliest Ames
substrain (isolated in 1925 and sealed in 1928, perhaps subcultured in 1932).
There are at least four Ames substrains, all under the control of Fort Detrick. They
were isolated by laboratories in Ames, Iowa but were not subsequently studied or
distributed by them.
Undoubtedly the confusion about Ames substrains could be cleared up by USAMRIID, but
they have been evasive.
WEAPONIZATION
"Weaponization" is used here to mean preparation of the form of anthrax found in the
Daschle letter: fine particles, very narrow size range, treated to eliminate static
charge so it won't clump and will float in the air.
The weaponization process used was extraordinarily effective. The particles have a
narrow size range (1.5-3 microns diameter), typical of the US process.
The extraordinary concentration (one trillion spores per gram) and purity of the
letter anthrax is believed to be characteristic of material made by the US process.
A reporter who writes on anthrax vaccine has privately stated that four labs have told
him that under the electron microscope the appearance of the sample is like that of
unmilled anthrax spores. Milled samples are identi
fiable because they contain debris. The optimal US process did not use milling.
The US weaponization process is secret-Bill Patrick, its inventor, says it involves a
COMBINATION of chemicals.
The Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (Washington DC) is studying the anthrax using
an energy dispersive X-ray spectroscope, which can detect the presence of extremely
tiny quantities of chemicals; traces of several che
micals have been found.
The Senate sample contains a special form of silica used in the US process. It does
not contain bentonite (used by the Iraqis).
All the letters probably contained the same material. The clumping of the anthrax in
the two letters mailed on Sept 18 (to NBC and the NY Post) probably resulted from the
letters getting wet in the course of mail processi
ng or delivery, according to Army scientists. This conclusion is strengthened by the
similarity of the Florida anthrax (the first to be observed, probably also mailed on
Sept 18) to that in the Daschle letter, mailed Oct
9.
ANTHRAX PRODUCTION
A study of genetic drift at certain locations in anthrax is underway at Northern
Arizona State University. The results are expected to give an idea of how many times
the letter anthrax had replicated, in comparison to the
reference strain-ie, whether it was grown on a very large scale (as in a State
program) or on a very small scale, as would be likely if recently made by a terrorist.
Analysis of trace contaminants could also indicate the scale/method of production (ie,
liquid medium, in a fermenter, or solid medium, on petri dishes, a likely method for
small-scale preparation).
OTHER ANALYSES
It has just been reported that the complete sequence has been determined for the
genomes of both the anthrax used in the Florida attack and the Ames reference strain
to which it corresponds. This work was done under gover
nment contract by the Institute for Genomic Research, a private non- profit
organization. The results have not been made public but they are in government hands
and there has been no retraction of the oft-repeated officia
l statement that the letter anthrax matches the Ames reference strain.
In addition, sequence data will reveal whether the Ames reference strain is a mixture
of types, as sequencing has revealed to be the case for another anthrax strain. If so,
the proportions of the mixture may differ from l
ab to lab and could be used to identify the source.
Senator Bob Graham, Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said in late
October that investigators can identify with great certainty which lab produced the
anthrax, but it will be a laborious, time-consuming proce
ss. (Chicago Tribune, 27 Oct 01).
SOURCE LOCATION
Contrary to early speculation, there are no more than about 20 laboratories known to
have obtained the Ames strain from Fort Detrick. The names of 15 of these laboratories
have been found in the open literature (see Appen
dix). Of these, probably only about four in the US might possibly have the capability
for weaponizing anthrax. These include both US military laboratories and government
contractors.
INFORMATION REGARDING THE PERPETRATOR
Analysts believe the letters were not written by a Middle-Easterner. The FBI publicly
conjectures that the perpetrator was a lone, male domestic terrorist, obviously one
with a scientific background and lab experience who
could handle hazardous materials.
The perpetrator must have received anthrax vaccine recently (it requires a yearly
booster shot), whether or not he made the material himself, because filling the
letters was a dangerous operation. The vaccine is in short
supply and is not generally accessible. Vaccination records must be available.
The perpetrator appears to be a forensic expert. In preparing and mailing the letters
he successfully covered every personal trace.
TIMING
There was only one week between Sept 11 and Sept 18, when the first two letters (and
probably another letter, never found, to AMI) were postmarked. This suggests that the
anthrax was already in hand before Sept 11.
Did the perpetrator have advance knowledge of the Sept 11 attacks? Secretary of
Defense Rumsfeld has said that he does not believe al Qaeda was responsible for the
anthrax attack, and other public officials have increasin
gly indicated that the perpetrator was probably domestic.
PUBLIC STATEMENTS
At first, US officials provided miscellaneous bits of information, some conflicting;
then denied some of the earlier information, then clammed up. They now have a great
deal of information that has not been made public. U
nder pressure from leaks, they have started a gradual release of information again.
The US rejected a UN resolution offered by France to condemn the anthrax attack, on
the grounds that it could have been domestic terrorism.
The Secretary of Health and Human Services said in October that some of the relevant
information is classified, and some is restricted by the FBI.
John Bolton, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security,
spoke on Nov. 19 at the opening of the five-yearly Review Conference of the Biological
Weapons Convention in Geneva. At a press conference
following his talk, he said "We don't know, as I say in the statement, at the moment,
in a way that we could make public, where the anthrax attacks came from." This
statement, as well as other information, indicates that
US officials DO know where the anthrax came from.
The FBI says it is now investigating government and contractor laboratories possessing
the Ames strain, and individuals who had access to them. Col. Arthur Friedlander, Sr.
Research Scientist at USAMRIID, said no one ther
e knows how to make dry weaponsized anthrax.
According to the New York Times (2 Dec 01), a law enforcement official close to the
federal investigation called the concept of a government insider, or someone in
contact with an insider, "the most likely hypothesis…it's
definitely reasonable." An American official sympathetic to this thesis was quoted in
the same article saying that, in addition to military laboratories, "there are other
government and contractor facilities that do clas
sified work with access to dangerous strains, but it's highly likely that the material
in the anthrax letters came from a person or persons who really had great expertise.
We haven't seen any other artifacts that point us
elsewhere."
Senate Majority Leader Thomas Daschle, recipient of one of the anthrax letters, has
been in frequent contact with investigators. He said on Dec 8 that the perpetrator was
probably someone with a military background.
MOST LIKELY HYPOTHESIS
The perpetrator is probably an American microbiologist who has access to weaponized
anthrax or to the expertise and materials for making it, in a US government or
contractor lab. He does not live in or near Trenton, but m
ore probably in the Washington, DC area. Trenton is probably accessible to him (it is
a stop on the Amtrak line that runs along the East coast), but if he is smart enough
to handle anthrax he is smart enough not to mail i
t from his home town.
The anthrax in the letters was probably made and weaponized in a US government or
contractor lab. It might have been made recently by the perpetrator on his own, or
made as part of the US biodefense program; or it may be
a remnant of the US biological weapons program before Nixon terminated the program in
1969.
Weaponization of dry anthrax after 1972, when the Biological Weapons Convention was
signed, could be construed as a violation of the Convention.
The motive of the perpetrator was not necessarily to kill but to create public fear,
thereby raising the profile of BW. He simply took advantage of Sept 11 to throw
suspicion elsewhere. The letters warned of anthrax or th
e need to take antibiotics, making it possible for those who handled the letters to
protect themselves; and it seems unlikely that the perpetrator would have anticipated
that the rough treatment of mail in letter sorters
etc, would force anthrax spores through the pores of the envelopes (which were taped
to keep the anthrax inside) and infect postal workers and others.
The choice of media as targets seems to have been cleverly designed to ensure
publicity about the threat of biological weapons. One can only speculate that the
perpetrator may have wished to push the US government toward
retaliatory action against some enemy, or to attract funding or recognition to some
program with which he is associated.
The choice of Senators Daschle and Leahy as targets may be a clue that has yet to be
deciphered.
The US government has undoubtedly known for some time that the anthrax terrorism was
an inside job. They may be reluctant to admit this. They also may not yet have
adequate hard evidence to convict the perpetrator.
In opposition to most of the countries of the world, the Bush administration turned
down a Protocol to monitor compliance with the ban on biological weapons last July. In
so doing it reversed the policy of the previous th
ree administrations aimed at strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention, which
lacks verification measures. The action put the US at odds with most of its allies and
fueled accusations of US unilateralism, according
to the Washington Times (Dec 5).
The anthrax attacks have had no effect on administration policy. At the start of a
five-yearly Biological Weapons Convention Review Conference last month,
Under-Secretary Bolton caused dissention by accusing several parti
es to the Convention of violating it. On Dec 7, the last day of the conference, the US
doublecrossed its European allies by reversing a compromise agreement of the previous
day, thereby causing an uproar and derailing the
Conference. According to European diplomats, failure of the conference sends the
message that the international community is not willing to enforce the ban on
biological weapons.
Conclusions: A recent report by the Congressional GAO, as well as many recent
statements by military and non-governmental experts in the BW field, holds that
terrorists are unlikely to be able to mount a major biological
attack without substantial assistance from a government sponsor. The recent anthrax
attack was a minor one but nonetheless we now see that it was perpetrated with the
unwitting assistance of a sophisticated government pro
gram. It is reassuring to know that it was not perpetrated by a lone terrorist without
state support.
It is not reassuring, however, to discover that a secret US program may have been the
source of that support, and that security is so dangerously lax in military or defense
contractor laboratories. US government insistenc
e on pursuing and maintaining the secrecy of elaborate biological threat assessment
activities is undermining the prohibitions of the Biological Weapons Convention and
encouraging biological weapons proliferation in other
countries, which in turn may support bioterrorist attacks on the American public.
APPENDIX
LABORATORIES THAT HAVE WORKED WITH THE AMES STRAIN OF ANTHRAX
(Information obtained from open sources)
USArmy Medical Research Institute for Infectious Diseases (Ft. Detrick, MD)#*
Dugway Proving Ground (Utah)#*
Naval Research Medical Center and associated military labs (MD)#
Battelle Memorial Institute (Ohio; plus laboratories in many other locations)#*
Duke University Medical School, Clinical Microbiology Lab. (NC)
VA Medical Center, Durham (NC)
USDA laboratory and Iowa State College of Veterinary Medicine, Ames (Iowa)
LSU College of Veterinary Medicine*
Northern Arizona State University (Arizona)*
Illinois Institute of Technology Research Institute (IL)
University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque (NM)*
Institute for Genomic Research (MD)
Chemical and Biological Defense Establishment, Porton Down (UK)*
Center for Applied Microbiology and Research, Porton (UK)*
Defense Research Establishment, Suffield (CA)*
In addition, CDC, NIH, and Los Alamos and a few others may have the Ames strain.
* Obtained through a FOIA request by the Washington Post (article Nov
30, 01)
# indicates laboratories in the US that are probably more likely than
the others to have weaponization capabilities.
End<{{{
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