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Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War!

NUCLEAR CHICKEN IN THE HIMALAYAS

 Eric S. Margolis, 2001

January 03, 2002

President George Bush's crusade against terrorism is going splendidly -
except for a few minor hiccups, such as that target Osma bin Laden and his
al-Qaida remain elusive, the Russians have reoccupied half of Afghanistan,
thousands of Afghan civilians have been killed by US bombs, and India is
playing nuclear chicken against Pakistan.

Last September 23rd, concerned that US intervention in Afghanistan might
spark a war between India and Pakistan, this column warned of the dangers of
an `enraged US bull in South Asia's nuclear china shop.' Ten weeks later,
India and Pakistan are on the edge of a nuclear conflict that could kill
millions and spread radioactive dust around the globe.

The chain of events that led to the current crisis are now plainly visible.
The US `war against terrorism' and invasion of Afghanistan upset the delicate
balance of enmity between old foes India and Pakistan. The Bush
Administration, seeking new allies for its crusade against Muslim opponents,
rashly signed a military alliance with India to fight `terrorism.' To India,
`terrorism' meant Kashmiri independence-seekers battling Indian rule in
occupied Kashmir, and their patron, Pakistan. India had also recently signed
a secret, anti - Islamic alliance with Israel, which has become a major
supplier of arms and nuclear weapons technology to India. So India, seeing
Pakistan of the defensive, upped the military pressure.

The Bush Administration, unaware or heedless of the dangers facing it, had
inadvertently stumbled into the 55-year old Kashmir dispute between three
nuclear powers, India, Pakistan, and China - just as it was getting drawn
ever deeper into Afghanistan's murky tribal politics. Bush's ugly faux pas in
referring to Pakistanis as `Pakis' this week gave an alarming insight into
how out of touch with foreign affairs and foreign sensibilities the Texas
president really is.

Still unidentified militants staged a series of outrageous attacks on Indian
targets, including the parliament in New Delhi, designed to bring simmering
tensions between the two old foes to a boil, and upset India's new alliances
with the US and with Israel. Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaida may have been
involved. The attackers remain unidentified, though India claims they came
from two Kashmiri militant groups harbored by Pakistan. Leaders of these two
groups were recently arrested by Pakistan.

India threatened to attack Islamic militants based in Pakistani territory, as
it has repeatedly done in the past. If the US could attack Afghanistan
because the elusive Osama bin Laden was presumed hiding there, then India,
according to President George Bush's own self-proclaimed rules of
international retribution, had just as much right to attack Pakistan. The
Indians, of course, were absolutely correct - according to Bush's logic. But
the US is now urging `restraint' on India, a virtue it failed to show in
Afghanistan.

Off on the sidelines, China, another player in this drama, is also urging
restraint on all concerned. Yet, at the same time, China is growing
increasingly alarmed by what now looks like a permanent presence of US forces
in Afghanistan, and the threat of an Indian attack against its most important
ally, Pakistan.

China's unease is being heightened by the accelerating strategic arms race
with India, which in 1998 proclaimed China its `number one enemy.' India
recently introduced its new Agni-II nuclear-armed missile that can hit most
of China's major cities.

The US has aggravated Indian-Chinese tensions by sharply tilting towards
India and winking at its secret nuclear programs, while keeping Pakistan
under a punishing sanctions regime. Washington clearly intends to use India
in the game of Asian strategic chess as a potential counterforce against
China. Russia is levering its revived strategic alliance with India to
advance its geopolitical interests in South and Central Asia, and, most
notably, in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, President Pervez Musharraf, finds himself squeezed between Indian
threats and US pressure. Musharraf has been trying to appease New Delhi
without appearing to do so. Last week, in an embarrassing new low for
Pakistan's battered image, Musharraf, who stoutly denied in the past that his
nation gave anything more than `moral support' to Kashmiri insurgents, lamely
announced his intelligence service would cut off arms and finance to
`non-indigenous' mujihadin in Kashmir - meaning non-Kashmiri volunteers. The
Indians, who have long accused Pakistan of `cross-border terrorism' and
sending `mercenaries' into their part of Kashmir, crowed with triumph while
Islamabad ate humble pie.

As India continued to mass troops on Pakistan's border, the US repeated
threats, made in September, to ruin Pakistan by cutting off the foreign loans
on which it subsists. Adding to these threats, the Indian Navy is poised to
blockade Karachi, Pakistan's main port and principal entry point for oil.
Spare parts for Pakistan's F-16 warplanes are critically short. Pakistan
finds itself alone, facing the Russian to the north in Afghanistan,
fire-breathing India to the east, and ever-hostile Iran to the west.

Musharraf's enforced backdown over Kashmir may undermine his support in the
armed forces and among the public, which is already battered by the recent
fiasco in Afghanistan and the arrest, firing, or muzzling, under American
orders, of Islamic activists, leading officers, and government critics. The
two worst public jobs in the world today appear to be the presidency of
Pakistan and Argentina.

India, hopefully, will content itself with making Pakistan crawl and cry
`uncle.' A new outrage by militants, a border clash, or a bombing could still
plunge the region into war.



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any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use
without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest
in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational
purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ]

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