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Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War!

FROM DEBKA INTELLIGENCE FILES
U.S. making final break with Arafat?
Sources: Arabs told that Yasser no longer deemed Palestinian leader

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Editor's note: DEBKAfile's electronic news publication is a news-cum-analysis
live wire, online round the clock seven days a week. A weekly
edition,DEBKA-Net-Weekly, is now available through WorldNetDaily.com. Drawing
on DEBKAfile's unique sources, analytical talents and forward-looking
insights, it is presented as a compact, intelligence-angled weekly package.
It is available as a direct e-mail feed or via the Internet.


© 2002 WorldNetDaily.com

The Bush administration has decided on a final break with Palestinian
Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat, according to DEBKA-Net-Weekly.

DEBKAfile sources in Washington disclose that a firm message sent last week
to the Arab governments with whom Washington deals makes it clear that the
U.S. no longer deems Arafat the Palestinian people's representative leader.

According to sources in Jerusalem and several Middle East and Gulf capitals,
the decision was marked final and irreversible.

There was more to the decision to pull the plug on Arafat than the discovery
of his large-scale arms smuggling operations aboard the Karine-A and his
association with Iran. When the U.S. government began a quiet investigation
of the Palestinian leader's other links with terrorist bodies, it turned up a
tangled clandestine web.

A source close to the investigation said to DEBKAfile: "We now know that
Arafat used his relations with the U.S. administration and intelligence going
back 10 years at least to cover up his long-active reciprocal ties with
terror groups operating in the Persian Gulf, the Middle East and West
Europe."

In particular, he never really dropped his close association with Imad
Mughniyeh, the Iranian-Lebanese terrorist, whom Iran's hard-line spiritual
leader, Ali Khamenei, appointed to his top terror operational staff.
Mughniyeh started out in the 1970s as a member of Arafat's personal guard
Force 17, and the two men never lost touch. Their relations intensified after
Mughniyeh joined al-Qaida in the mid-1990s. He has since become Osama bin
Laden's chief operations officer.

Arafat's hidden links with Iraqi army intelligence elements working with
terrorist organizations also came under close scrutiny.

Our source commented: "We would not be too surprised to find him dealing
indirectly, or even directly, with Osama bin Laden or his top men. For the
time being, we are keeping our findings up our sleeves, but if, at some
point, letting the public know serves the investigation, we won't stop at
blowing the whistle on him."

DEBKAfile's sources add that the Arab and European governments also were
informed that Washington had imposed a freeze on the Palestinian-Israeli
peace process until the Palestinian Authority has a new leader.

A number of Middle Easterners and Europeans, in a last-ditch attempt to
rescue Arafat, asked the Americans for permission to mediate the crisis. They
were handed a list of pre-conditions:


Arafat must publicly confess his personal complicity in the aborted Karine-A
smuggling attempt, admit his direct contacts with the Iranian leadership and
Mughniyeh and apologize for instigating those connections.

Next, he must order the arrest, trial and sentencing – for real – of the
organizers of the Karine-A gun-running attempt and, furthermore, direct
Palestinian security services to disband – by force if need be – all the
Palestinian terrorist organizations, including the Fatah-affiliated Tanzim
and Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, the Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine, the Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.

The discredited Palestinian leader must also expose the Hezbollah and Iraqi
military intelligence agents and cells working on his behalf in
Palestinian-controlled West Bank and Gaza Strip areas and then deport them
all.

Finally, Arafat must hand over the terrorist cells he planted among Israeli
Arabs and discontinue his subversive machinations in Egypt and Jordan.
"What we want," said one American source, "is for Arafat to act like
Musharraf and stifle terrorism. But we don't believe he'll do it."

Saudi, Egyptian and European sources rejected U.S. terms as synonymous with
Arafat's total capitulation and the renunciation of his Intifada and the
national goals he set for the Palestinians in September 2000.

Immediately after the U.S. decision became known last weekend, DEBKAfile's
sources report the affected governments swung into action.

To forestall the furious outbreaks of Palestinian violence expected to ensue,
the Jordanian army went on top alert and Israel's high command was ordered to
stand ready for a general offensive against Palestinian cities in the West
Bank and Gaza Strip – to be the biggest military operation Israel has ever
mounted against the Palestinians.

Israel's planning for this offensive entailed the reoccupation of Rafah and
Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip and the destruction of the local
terrorist infrastructure there. The idea was to block the Gaza border with
Egypt and cut off Palestinian forces from their weapons depots in northern
Sinai. Those depots are located, according to DEBKAfile's military sources,
in el Arish, Egyptian Rafah and fishing villages on Sinai's Mediterranean
coast, where Israel cannot bomb them.

As Israeli forces prepared for action in the Gaza Strip, Egyptian special
police forces – commandos in police uniforms – rushed to those depots and
sealed them off against Palestinian access.

On the West Bank, Israeli forces prepared their third incursion in six weeks
into Jenin, Tulkarm and Nablus.

The offensive was scheduled for launching after midnight Jan. 28. At the last
minute, Sharon called chief of staff Lt. Gen. Shaul Mofaz and ordered him to
stand down, though not to disband the infantry and tank deployments.

According to DEBKAfile's sources, the U.S. and Egypt held Israel back.
Washington feared the Israeli operation would peak in the middle of President
George W. Bush's first State of the Union address to Congress Tuesday night.
Egypt asked for a few days' grace on the remote chance that Arafat could be
persuaded to accept a brief halt in the almost daily terror carnage in
Israeli towns.

In the mean time, Egyptian officials were to enter in a debate with Israeli
officials on what was frankly called the "post-Arafat era." One element of
that debate was the Egyptian admission that the influence they held over
Arafat and his decisions was a thing of the past.

Israel's decision to hold its fire was affected most by Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak suddenly breaking the ice overlaying relations with the Sharon
government since it took office a year ago.

On Jan. 27, Sharon's foreign policy adviser, Danny Ayalon, was invited to
Cairo to meet the president's senior political adviser, Osama al-Baz. On Jan.
30, defense minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer and his deputy, Dalia
Rabin-Pelossof, met Mubarak at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

The note Mubarak and al-Baz struck in these conversations was pessimistic,
centering on the fear that Arafat intended setting off a bloody eruption of
terror against Israel in order to push the entire Middle East into an overall
conflict. The Egyptian ruler felt the time had come to reopen a direct line
to Jerusalem. Mubarak had recalled his ambassador from Tel Aviv in November
2000 in protest of Israel's actions against the Palestinian uprising. At that
time Cairo saw Arafat as an ally and believed they were working in unison.

Along with Mubarak, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz and Jordan's
King Abdullah II engaged in diplomatic maneuvering to meet the crisis. There
was enough concern to warrant hasty arrangements for King Abdullah to spend
two days in Riyadh this week, after a long period of no contact between the
Jordanian and Saudi governments.

King Abdullah's visit had three aims, not all connected with the Palestinian
issue:


To offer his help in reviving a fresh dialogue between the Saudi Crown Prince
and the Bush administration and repair some of the damage in their relations.
The Saudi ruler asked King Abdullah to relay a personal message to President
Bush when they meet at the White House today. According to DEBKAfile's
sources, Prince Abdullah had nothing new to say on the foremost bone of
contention between him and Bush, America's war on global terror. He merely
repeated his demand for the handover to Saudi authorities of all the Saudi
nationals held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Washington's rejection of the demand
this week further exacerbated the frictions with its erstwhile ally. Having
to send messages to Washington indirectly, by means of the Hashemite king,
further underlines the sharp decline in the once cordial friendship between
Riyadh and Washington.


To sound out the Saudi crown prince on an orderly transfer of authority from
Arafat to an alternative Palestinian figure acceptable to Riyadh. Abdullah
proposed making this a trilateral discussion including Egypt. He was turned
down outright. The crown prince refused to hear of Arafat being replaced.

To request the reining in of the Saudi intelligence agents who stirred up
several days of riots in southern Jordan last month. The king offered in
return to lift some of the strict controls he imposed at Jordanian crossing
points into Saudi Arabia. Crown Prince Abdullah promised to look into the
matter and give the king a reply before he traveled to Washington.
DEBKAfile's Middle Eastern sources report that over the last weekend Sharon
made it clear to the U.S., Egypt and Jordan that while Israel held its army
back this week, the gloves would be off if Palestinian missiles fell on
Israeli population centers. That would mean total war with the Palestinian
Authority.

DEBKAfile's military experts confirm that Qasem-1 and Qasem-2, homemade
versions of the Hezbollah's Katyusha missiles, have reached Palestinian bases
on the West Bank and are configured for taking to the air very soon.



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