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Father and son will tread the same path
Damascus | By Sami Moubayed | 13/02/2002
The entire world seems to have forgotten that the main objective of
the American war on terror was to nail Osama bin Laden and not topple
the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Today, exactly five months after
September 11, bin Laden is still alive and kicking, and his Al Qaida
network continues to operate.
No one has noticed that, to date, the war on terror, in terms of
objective, has been an absolute flop. No one that is, except for
George W. Bush. Although apparently at the height of his glory,
hailed in some circles as the Roosevelt of the 21st century, Bush
realises that the "evil" man he vowed to bring to justice is nowhere
close to being behind bars.
To compensate for failure, Bush decided to divert world attention
from bin Laden and concentrate on more well-established and
traditional enemies he knew he could tackle: Iran and Iraq. Drumming
up existing rivalry for the two states would surely do the trick for
the American President.
Reactivating dormant rivalries for the U.S. would divert local attention from
Afghanistan, give the Americans a new topic to worry about, and keep Bush prepped on
the anti-terror pulpit that he has created. More important
ly, it will make people forget that "terrorist number one" is still alive and on the
loose.
'Black' events
Big words and loud threats have always done wonders for American leaders. All of them
– with no exception have benefited from times of national crisis and manoeuvred
"black" events to polish their own reputations at home.
Bush senior was the highest rated president till now, having jumped at the popularity
polls from 64 per cent to 82 per cent during the 1991 Gulf War. The current president,
who was considered one of America's worse in his
first months in office, increased in popularity from 51 per cent to a staggering 86
per cent – the highest rating ever in U.S. history.
If anything, the polls show that Bush has a lot to live up to and would lose much if
he fails to do either of the following: find a new enemy for America (or resurrect an
old one) or bring Osama bin Laden to justice. Havi
ng failed at achieving the latter, Bush decided to turn the clock back to 1979 and
1991 America, where Washington's main enemies were the mullahs of Tehran and the ruler
of Baghdad.
The concept of "finding a new enemy" was first formulated during the final months of
the former USSR from August to December 1990. Back then, President Bush senior
"created" an enemy out of Iraq, Washington's former ally,
following Saddam Hussain's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. When the USSR did
collapse four months later, the Americans were already busy with another enemy.
History apparently repeats itself.
Iranians surprised
The current U.S. President's speech labelling Iran and Iraq as the "axis of evil" was
somewhat expected in Baghdad, where an on-going war of words prevails with Washington.
It took the Iranian clerics, however, completely
by surprise. Reformist leader Mohammad Khatami had gone to great lengths following
September 11 to market his country as an opponent of terrorism and a potential friend
to the United States.
He strongly condemned the twin attacks on Washington and New York, and publicly stated
that his regime did not agree with the policies of bin Laden and the Al Qaida network.
Right after the attacks, British Foreign Minist
er Jack Straw arrived in Tehran, under U.S. auspices, to broker an alliance with
Khatami.
The Iranian President explained that he was willing to rescue any American pilot
downed by Taliban during the U.S. offensive, over Iranian territory.
Khatami, a long-time opponent of Taliban, instructed Northern Alliance warriors on the
Iranian payroll to cooperate with the U.S. and although he objected to civilian
casualties in Afghanistan, he showed no reservations t
o continued U.S. strikes during the month of Ramadan.
Straw praised Iran's "humanity" and predicted a "new era" in relations with the
Islamic state. In Tehran, anti-American rhetoric, boiling since the days of Khomeini,
disappeared from official circles and talk of a rapproc
hement with Washington became frequent. Officials in Tehran even toyed with the idea
of lifting the death fatwa, issued by the late leader Ayatollah Khomeini on
British-born author Salman Rushdie.
Such a move would have definitely pleased both London and Washington, who for years
had been haranguing Tehran for the treatment of the British philosopher and demanded
revoking the fatwa.
According to a TIME magazine poll conducted during the brief U.S.-Iranian honeymoon,
65 per cent of Iranian youth, those who were born after the 1979 Islamic Revolution,
favoured a new chapter in ties with the U.S.
In the midst of all these efforts, Iranians were shocked last month to hear Bush
referring to them as part of "an axis of evil." For a while, they had complained that
they had not received any compensation for their good
faith during the U.S. war effort.
Iran had committed $297 million for rebuilding Afghanistan and helped broker the Bonn
Agreement that brought Hamid Karzai's provisional government to power in Kabul.
Although Khatami was not too pleased with Karzai himsel
f, having preferred a regime under ex-President Burhanuddin Rabbani, he accepted the
new regime and was quick in extending it recognition.
Khatami and others feared the ascent of Karzai, a hardline loyalist of Afghanistan's
former King Mohammed Zahir Shah, a move that would prompt loyalists of the former Shah
of Iran to work for a comeback themselves.
This pro-U.S. attitude, however, dangerous as it was, turned into hatred almost
overnight. Iranian Chief of Staff Fairuz Abadi saw Bush's January 2002 remarks as
"Fascist" while members of the Revolutionary Guard pledged
to "respond violently" if Bush carried out his threats on Tehran.
Total support
Ethnic minorities were also swift in voicing support for the state, with Armenian MP
in the Iranian Parliament George Albramian saying, "Bush cannot appoint himself as
dean of the global village and claim to be speaking f
or people of the free world."
Conservative politicians, headed by journalist Hussein Sharetamadari threatened the
U.S. with "suicide attacks" against its worldwide establishments and in a symbolic
gesture, Khatami called for a massive demonstration on
Feb-ruary 11, commemorating the 1979 revolution, to denounce the "insulting" Bush
statements.
Khatami even contacted his regional allies, elicited support for Iran and secured the
visit of Syrian Vice- President Abdul Halim Khaddam to Tehran this month, in a gesture
of support for the country. Privately, however,
Khatami was eager to avoid a clash. He began a public relations campaign by clamping
down on Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, an Afghan opponent of Karzai residing in Tehran.
Would such a campaign succeed in defusing American anger? Is there anger in the first
place, or is the "axis of evil" nothing but bluff aimed at gaining time and
credibility for George Bush? One thing is clear – Bush will
not bomb Iraq and Iran – at least, not immediately.
He simply cannot afford to lose the already shaky alliance of Arab leaders he has
managed to create. For the present, he just wants to increase alertness, attract
attention, and show the world that his war has not ended.
Cheap talk
It is doubtful, however, that there will be a post-Afghanistan war on terror under the
Bush administration. The "axis of evil" threat, despite all the diplomatic attention
and media fanfare, is simply cheap talk to which
we in the Arab world are accustomed.
Arab leaders love to make fiery speeches, use big words and loud threats. Promises,
illusions, and big words were introduced into the Arab political dictionary in the
1960s, by Gamal Abdul Nasser, and have carried on ever
since.
In America, however, they are somewhat a new policy that people need to digest.
In the past, American presidents never gave promises they could not, or were not,
willing to keep. Franklin Roosevelt pledged to win the war in Europe, destroy Adolph
Hitler and end the country's economic depression– and
he did. Jimmy Carter vowed to safely bring back the American hostages from Iran, and
he did. Richard Nixon promised to end the war in Vietnam and lived up to his promise.
Words became cheap during the era of President Bush senior. He promised to topple
Saddam Hussain, and today Saddam remains in power while Bush has gone into political
retirement. He promised his famed, "read my lips: no n
ew taxes" to the American public and skyrocketed taxes during his
era. The son, time will prove, will be no different from the father.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
© Al Nisr Publishing LLC - Gulf News Online
End<{{{
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