-Caveat Lector- >From SFGate
}}}>Begin For Turkey, new war with Iraq is a grim prospect Many fear result would be economic doom Russell Working, Chronicle Foreign Service Saturday, March 23, 2002 ©2002 San Francisco Chronicle URL: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2002/03/23/MN166883.DTL Ankara, Turkey -- From his shop in the ancient citadel of this busy capital city, Satilimish Sutchuoglu and three fellow carpet sellers gather to drink tea and trade forecasts of economic doom. Tourists, who provide most of his bread and butter, have been scarce since Sept. 11 in this secularly governed Muslim country that straddles Europe and Asia. And if the talk from Washington is to be believed, things could soon get worse just as the tourist season is ready to begin. Vice President Dick Cheney visited this week to discuss the possibility of forcing Saddam Hussein from power in neighboring Iraq, and a war would be a staggering blow to an already tottering economy. "If a war happens, then we will run into a disaster," said Sutchuoglu. "I would hate to see a war, because I know we won't have any business, and I'm already in debt." >From the Cold War to Operation Desert Storm, Turkey, a NATO member since 1952, has staunchly supported U.S. foreign policy. Its biggest contribution in recent years has been to allow American jets to patrol the no-fly zones over Iraq from Turkish air bases. But talk of a new campaign to oust Hussein has drawn denunciations across the political spectrum in a land that lost billions of trade dollars with Iraq and slipped into an economic crisis after the Gulf War. Turkey, which imports most of its oil, was also cut off from cheap Iraqi oil. Only recently did Iraq start transshipping oil once again to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Before the war, "our export revenue from Iraq was $5 billion annually. Multiply that by 12 years, and we have lost about $60 billion," said Sinan Aygun, president of the Ankara Chamber of Commerce. "For the sake of being on better terms with the U.S., we lost a good neighbor and trading partner." Turkey insists that no attack against Iraq is warranted, worrying not only about the effects on its faltering economy but the political repercussions as well. Many Turks fear that despite their Western orientation, those concerns will not be taken seriously. But some observers suggest that Ankara might be willing to let the United States use its air bases to attack Baghdad if the right incentives are dangled. Turkey wants more financial aid, a partnership in the exclusive free-trade club with the United States and assurances that a post-Hussein Iraq would remain a single state. Seyfi Tashan, director of the Turkish Foreign Policy Institute at Bilkent University in Ankara, said a major concern is that a war could split Iraq into three sections -- a Shiite south, a Sunni middle and a Kurdish north. Turkey is well aware that the creation of a no-fly zone in northern Iraq turned the region into a sanctuary for Kurdish rebels seeking to secede from Turkey. Turkey responded with a brutal scorched-earth campaign against the Kurds, and it fears that the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq could embolden its own Kurdish minority and lead to renewed terrorist attacks. "If Turkey is going to contribute to a war against Iraq, it must be assured that an independent Kurdish state will not be created," Tashan said. Even in hard times, Turkey is a progressive country compared to the lawless former Soviet states to the north and east and impoverished and repressive Middle Eastern neighbors to the south and east. And despite its spotty human rights record, Turkey has an elected government and takes pride in its secular constitution for a country whose population of 66 million is 97 percent Muslim. Officials finger prayer beads during interviews while sitting under giant portraits of the founder of modern Turkey, Kemal Ataturk. Urban streets are lined with Internet cafes, Renault automobile dealerships and Paul & Shark Yachting apparel outlets. Street vendors talk passionately about Turkey's hope to join the European Union, and stylish young women thumb through lingerie at Version stores. Privately, many Turkish officials admit they would be better off without Hussein in power -- as long as the war was short and clean. Like Washington, Ankara is concerned about Iraq's potential for developing weapons of mass destruction. Ilnur Chevik, editor of the Turkish Daily News, has urged Turks to stop clinging to hopes that President Bush will rule out an attack. In a subsequent interview, he said that despite its skittishness, Turkey could benefit from Hussein's downfall. "As long as Saddam is there, the Americans won't lift sanctions. As long as the Americans won't lift sanctions, we can't have a proper business relationship with Iraq," he said. "Is the continuation of the status quo in the interests of Turkey? It isn't." If the United States attacks, Turkey would try to keep its soldiers out of the fight, officials say, though that might be difficult if Iraq moves its troops north toward the Turkish border. A recent article in the Turkish Daily News indicated that Ankara might consider committing some of its troops "if a U.S. strike becomes unavoidable." In the meantime, street vendors like Veysel Genchauci hope the United States will opt not to go to war. "We don't want this war to take place in any way. Last time we were involved, Turkey's debts multiplied," he said while shoveling dried apricots, figs, raisins and corn from plastic tubs. "We were promised we would be covered for our expenses. But afterward, they just said, 'We are sorry for you.' " ©2002 San Francisco Chronicle Page A - 12 End<{{{~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Forwarded as information only; no endorsement to be presumed + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without charge or profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information for non-profit research and educational purposes only. + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe simply because it has been handed down for many generations. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored by many. 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