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May 13, 2002

Subject:  ANTHRAX LETTERS: MORE DISINFORMATION?

WHY? WERE THE LETTERS AN OFFICIALLY APPROVED WAKE-UP CALL TO THE BIOWARFARE
THREAT?

By Meryl Nass, MD

Are you picking up on all the weird press on anthrax lately?

First, we were told there was only a trace of spores in the Wallingford,
Connecticut post office, after Ottalie Lundgren’s demise. Then we hear that
three million spores were found initially, but there are only traces now,
found on the ceiling, no less: far from staff and customers.

Then we are treated to the story that the spore preparation sent in the
letters last October became more highly purified with each letter. Today some
bright light comes up with the idea that the letter sorters were milling
machines, and caused the clustered spores to shake apart from each other,
improving their offensive capability.

Does that mean that as time went on, the anthrax letters were put through
more and more sorting machines? This theory makes little sense. Worse, these
claims are very easy to either prove or dispute, but no one is disputing them
or verifying them. Anthrax spores are easily visible with a light microscope,
as is the debris that would accompany a crude milling process. All one need
do is look to figure out the amount of debris, and whether the spore size
ranges changed. Many other simple techniques should have been used months ago
that would have identified a change in the spore preparation: why wasn’t this
reported then?

Now more anthrax spores are found in the Federal Reserve. I’ve been told that
spores keep turning up at other postal facilities.

Debora MacKenzie of New Scientist used open information to puzzle out the
fact that the anthrax which so far is the best match to that isolated from
Bob Stevens in Florida came from USAMRIID at Fort Detrick, Maryland. However,
since it took months for the FBI to subpoena anthrax samples from those labs
working with the Ames strain, there is no reason to think that the spores
being tested are as pristine as they should be. For instance, there was
plenty of time to treat an anthrax preparation with substances that induce
mutations, and then give it to the FBI, assured that it would have
significant differences from the parent strain.

What is going on?

The first thing that jumps out at you is that nearly all the important
statements made about the anthrax investigation lack attribution. That means
that although reporters got the information from official sources, the
sources asked not to be named. This is a clue to disinformation.

Why might disinformation be used? For one thing, a few people may develop
anthrax after inhaling a small number of spores; at least, that is how the
deaths of Mrs. Lundgren and Mrs. Nguyen have been explained. Yet, given the
history of anthrax spores in factories, gross contamination rarely leads to
inhalation anthrax. The thinking probably goes that once spores get into the
environment and begin sticking to things, they are much less likely to cause
illness. This is probably what the authorities are counting on.

Since there have been no new inhalation cases in nearly 6 months, and the
cost of clean-ups can exceed the cost of a new building, those in authority
may be gambling that there will be no more, or extremely rare, cases in
future. So the sampling being done is mostly not being reported, or problems
minimized, to avoid fear of contaminated post offices.

Remember that many potentially affected buildings have not been tested for
spores, so we really don’t know the extent of spore contamination. Imagine
the cost of cleaning up every building where spores have been reported, let
alone every single contaminated building. You could easily be looking at
billions of dollars. That is no doubt why the revelations about the Federal
Reserve were followed within hours by claims that the finding is probably due
to lab error or dead, irradiated spores.

The question is, what is the methodology used to detect the spores? That
piece of information is never provided, because if it was, you could
extrapolate to find out how bad the contamination really was. For instance,
when you hear there were 3 million spores found in Wallingford, does that
mean three million spores grew colonies on petri dishes? Or does it mean that
the test used does not identify spores unless there are at least 10,000
spores per milliliter of material, and that 300 samples tested positive?

If they found 10,000 spores per milliliter, that is 50,000 in a teaspoon, and
you are looking at some extremely heavy contamination. Anyway, this is just
an illustration of the need to be explicit about methodology to know how
bad-or good--things really are.

If 3 million spores were found in Wallingford, they would not have been due
to cross contamination, but rather to one or more letters that leaked passing
through the post office. No such letter(s) have been found. I suspect that
multiple letters were either not found, or not reported, last fall.

Similarly, I continue to hear of probable human anthrax cases that were also
not reported, possibly because they did not meet the CDC’s case definition,
or to avoid panic. (One of my patient’s sisters treated a case, and one of my
cousins treated another with the classic rash, both postal workers in the NY
metropolitan area. And several NYC postal workers died of unknown causes at
the same time. Seems suspicious for at least a few more cases.)

Another reason the authorities are saying the contamination (if it exists) is
old, is because the public will rightly fear that the anthrax perpetrator,
not yet arrested, may be sending more letters. I doubt the FBI wants us
taking that possibility seriously.

Something else may be going on. The letters last October may have been part
of some deep dark officially-sanctioned plot (to save us from ourselves by
forcing Americans to wake up to the biowarfare threat?) and the
perpetrator(s) was never meant to be found. Instead, new letters might be
going out now to leave evidence implicating a "fall guy" for both the new and
the old letters.

We’ll probably never get to the bottom of this puzzle…but next time you see
an anthrax "scoop" attached to an unidentified official, call the reporter
who wrote the story and demand that in future stories, only sources who are
willing to go on record with their names should be used. That will clear up
at least some of the murkiness surrounding this investigation.

Forwarded for info and discussion from the New Paradigms Discussion List,
not necessarily endorsed by:
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