-Caveat Lector-

>From http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?j46464590&w=1

Scarce water at core of Middle East issues
By Paul Simon   September 02, 2002


Paul Simon was a U.S. senator from Illinois from 1985 to 1997.

The Middle East is slowly moving towards a more and more

serious water crisis.

The world water situation is serious, but nowhere more critical than in the Middle 
East. The
World Bank says that 300 million people - some say 500 million - today live in areas of
serious to severe water shortage and in slightly more than two decades that number will
grow to three billion. The smaller figure is not necessarily explosive; the larger 
figure is.

The United States is fortunate in having 4 percent of the world's population and 8 
percent
of its fresh water, but the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which 
serves
16 million people, says that by the year 2010, it will be able to meet only 43 percent 
of the
water needs of the population it serves from current supplies. So, even in water-rich
nations, distribution causes a problem.

There is more complete data on Israel's water situation than on Jordan, Syria and the
Palestinian territory - all of which face even more severe difficulties - but in 
Israel the status
is deteriorating with problems of distribution, water quality and water quantity. All 
three are
interrelated, but the most pressing of the three is quantity. In 1973, when the water
situation was not as critical as it is today, current Israeli Prime Minister Ariel 
Sharon
referred to the Six-Day War as the Water War, because a water dispute between Syria and
Israel was the immediate cause.

The three main sources of water for Israel are the Sea of Galilee (Lake Kinneret), the
coastal aquifer and the mountain aquifer. Anyone who has been to Israel recently can
testify to the highly visible reduction in water of the Sea of Galilee (as well as the 
Dead
Sea). Unfortunately, not visible is the gradual decline of water in the two large 
aquifers,
which not only threatens the supply in Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian territory, 
but,
because of the reduction in the quantity of water, there is saline and other chemical
penetration that's causing a decline in water quality.

Israeli citizens use less than 40 percent as much water per capita in urban areas as do
people in Southern California. Israel's neighbors use much less. Former Israeli Water
Commissioners Manahem Kantor and Dan Zaslavsky have warned that Israel's water
situation will become much worse unless carefully planned steps are taken immediately.
What is grim for Israel is even more severe for her neighbors.

Agriculture in all four lands is already largely dependent on recycled low-grade 
water. And
the simple solution of diverting more of this to urban needs is technically difficult 
and
opposed by the area governments that do not want to become totally dependent on foreign
sources for food.

An adequate, quality supply of water for citizens of all four countries is absolutely 
essential
to maintaining the quality of life for their people. The last thing Israel needs is an 
exodus of
citizens because the problems of water are piled on top of other difficulties, 
lowering their
standard of living.

The Jordanians, Palestinians, and Syrians will face the same problems, but their 
citizens
are somewhat less mobile than Israel's.

Complicating this precarious situation is that if the hoped- for agreement with Israel 
and the
Palestinians on land is achieved - not an immediate prospect - inevitably that means
granting a sizable portion of Israel's water sources to her neighbors.

Is the situation hopeless? No. But three things have to happen:

1. Some type of regional agreement on water must accompany the uneasy peace that I
believe will eventually be reached. No nation in that region can solve the water 
problems by
itself, with the possible exception of Lebanon. Last year I went to Jordan and Syria 
at the
request of the State Department to meet with leaders in those two nations to try to get
them to move toward a regional agreement on water with Israel and the Palestinians. My
trip caused at least serious reflection on the need for regional cooperation. The 
problem is
becoming grim. Amman, the capital of Jordan, with one million people, permits its 
citizens
to turn on their taps one day a week - and Jordan's population will grow by about one 
-third
over the next decade. However, regional cooperation on water will have to wait until
hostilities diminish.

2. Immediate, short-term answers must be found. That will include purchasing large 
plastic
bags of water (each 5.6 million gallons) from Turkey. It must include more reservoirs,
which the Jewish National Fund is helping to provide for Israel that will also assist 
in the
long term.

3. Desalination from seawater is recognized by almost everyone as the big long-term 
key.
Two large plants are in the offing for Israel. Jordan is moving in this direction. 
Eventually
Syria will have to. And for the Palestinians it is urgent as soon as they have 
stability. Much
more desalination will be needed. Saudi Arabia has more desalination plants than any
nation, but they have cheap energy. The Saudis have moved from growing as little as 8
percent of their own food to today being a food exporter. Any visitor to Israel and 
Jordan
over a period of years has seen desert areas become productive with the application of
water. But research by the United States on finding less-expensive ways of converting 
salt
water to fresh water would be of great help to the Middle East, as well as to 
ourselves.

Israel's Foreign Minister Shimon Peres often says that water will be a catalyst for 
war or a
catalyst for peace. He is correct, and if the situation can become more stable, 
getting the
nations to work together on water can lead to greater cooperation on other matters.


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