-Caveat Lector- http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=1012482002
Is the war with Iraq already under way? Tim Ripley THE STEPPING up of US and British bombing raids on Iraq and other military moves around the country over the past week have raised speculation that the allied campaign to force "regime change" on Baghdad has already started. The US air force and RAF have begun systematically to demolish the air defences in southern and western Iraq under the guise of the existing no-fly zone regime, giving the allies the air superiority needed for an overt attack on Iraq. President George Bush has made it clear that while his determination to remove Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi leader, from power remains, the rules of the game have changed. "My administration still supports regime change," he declared at Camp David on Saturday, adding: "There’s all kinds of ways to change regimes. The battlefield has changed. We are in a new kind of war, and we’ve got to recognise that." For when Mr Bush and Tony Blair, the Prime Minister, talk about seeking to build a coalition for action against Iraq, it is becoming clear they are only referring to the "overt" elements of their strategy to be conducted by uniformed military under the gaze of the world’s media. We are currently in a twilight zone between war and peace. In this "new type" of warfare, the last thing the Bush team wants is for there to be a formal declaration of war by the United Nations Security Council, with a grand opening air strike on Baghdad broadcast live on CNN. It seems highly likely that the British and Americans, with French backing, will soon try to get the cloak of legality from a UN Security Council resolution warning Baghdad to allow weapon inspectors to return or face attack. But these moves are simply a part of US strategy - Washington clearly sees the return of weapon inspectors not as a way to end the crisis, but as just another bar for Saddam to jump over. US strategy was formed earlier this year, once it became clear the Afghan war was manageable. In February, Mr Bush authorised the Central Intelligence Agency to step up covert efforts to foment unrest in Iraq and possibly prompt a coup d’etat. Feverish efforts have been under way for weeks to cultivate Iraqi opposition groups - Donald Rumsfeld’s "hawkish" Pentagon has taken over funding these groups from Colin Powell’s "dovish" State Department. Argument has raged within the Bush administration about the size of an invasion force needed to overthrow Saddam. This appears to have been settled in favour of a "light" force of 50,000 men, and the Pentagon has begun quietly to hire shipping to move its heavy equipment to the Middle East. The sharp rise in anti-Saddam rhetoric over the past month must be viewed in this context. First, it is clearly designed to unsettle Baghdad and force the regime to begin to worry where and when the US will strike. The Bush team hopes to force Saddam to make a mistake, such as attacking the Kurdish safe haven in the north: that would allow his opponents to strike or give the US an excuse to intervene with its own military might. The way Washington envisages it, over the next two to three months the game plan will be played out until the Iraqi leader cracks, putting his head in the noose. On the agenda will be an intensified enforcement of the no-fly zones, with Turkey being pressured to allow more intensive air strikes against Iraqi air defences in the north. In the inevitable game of cat-and-mouse that will develop over UN inspectors, there will be ample opportunity for a "Desert Fox"-style air blitz against Iraqi military installations. This, then, could be the moment for the Iraqi opposition to be encouraged to form a government-in-exile in the Kurdish safe haven. Such a move would be designed to enrage Saddam and might goad him into attacking the Kurds, giving the US an excuse to intervene. But these are only the opening moves of the US game plan. It is not clear yet whether Saddam is going to play along or spoil things for the allies by refusing to walk into the elaborate trap being set for him by Washington. A day like any other in Cuba FOR many of the 598 detainees at the remote Cuban outpost an ocean away from where the World Trade Centre once stood, 11 September was just another day spent behind bars. The men from 43 countries - accused of links to the al-Qaeda terrorist network or Afghanistan’s fallen Taleban regime - have no calendars and were not being told what day it was. General Rick Baccus, in charge of the detention mission in Guantánamo Bay, said: "We’re not making any special announcements to them." The 1,600 troops at the US naval base on Cuba’s eastern tip honoured those killed in the 11 September attacks on New York and Washington with sombre ceremonies. The detention mission, nearing its ninth month, is under increased pressure as interrogators squeeze information from the suspects and US officials question whether there is enough evidence to try them in tribunals or whether some should be freed. Major Ted Wadsworth, a spokesman for the Pentagon, said: "Although the Department of Defence is preparing to conduct military commissions, no trials are imminent. No charges have been approved." <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. 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