| -Caveat Lector-
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/A/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1032275790489 Sep. 18, 2002 Experts agree Israel has most to gain from Saddam ouster By MATTHEW GUTMAN An American attack on Iraq would have sweeping regional implications for non-combatant Middle East states, with Israel the nation that has the most to gain from the ouster of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, according to panelists at a Bar-Ilan University seminar yesterday entitled "The Regional Implications of a US Attack on Iraq." The US campaign against Iraq could just as easily consist of "a bullet in Saddam's head" or a weapons inspection regime with teeth, as a massive and costly ground invasion, according to Dr. Amin Tarzi, Radio Free Europe's regional analyst for Afghanistan and Iraq, and Prof. Ephraim Inbar, the director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA). "I don't think the US is ready for a large number of body bags," Tarzi said, referring to the loss of American lives an invasion could entail. He said he believes the US will set a "minimalist goal," such as eliminating Saddam or putting him on the run not necessarily democracy-building in a "Saddam-less" Iraq. Inbar said Israel has the most to gain from an Iraqi regime change, which could isolate Syria and Iran, and possibly push Syria from Lebanon and result in the disarmament of Hizbullah. "The destruction of Saddam," could also weaken anti-US sentiment in the Arab world, Inbar said, taking issue with the view of Arab leaders, such as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who warn that a strike on Iraq could ignite the "Arab street" and result in the overthrow of the Arab moderates. Dr. Hillel Frisch, a senior researcher at BESA, minimized the threat of the "Arab street," saying it has not reared its head since the Iranian revolution in 1979. The one thing Arab leaders do well is hold onto power, he added. According to BESA's expert on Turkey, Amikam Nachmani, Israel's closest regional ally stands to lose the most. He said that "100,000 barrels of oil a day pass from Iraq to Turkey," the loss of which could send Turkey's teetering economy tumbling. An American attack would also effectively end Turkey's $400 million trade partnership with Iraq, he added. Turkey has only given lukewarm backing to a possible US-led campaign because it fears unsettling its Kurdish minority of 12 million people, who might demand a state of their own following an Iraqi shakeup, Nachmani said. On the other hand, it fears disappointing the US, which is influential with the International Monetary Fund, in the process of injecting Turkey's sagging economy with a $25 billion grant, he added. All of the panelists downplayed the likelihood that Iraq would attack Israel either with conventional weapons or non-conventional weapons. Tarzi, who previously worked as a US disarmament specialist, said it would be very difficult for Saddam to use his weapons against Israel, in part due to the massive US effort to locate and destroy his missile launchers. <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html <A HREF="http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html">Archives of [EMAIL PROTECTED]</A> http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF="http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/">ctrl</A> ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om |
