-Caveat Lector- The election score so far: Dems could win 6 Senate and 17 House seats http://www.onlinejournal.com/Commentary/Ticker091902/ticker091902.html By Bruce S. Ticker Online Journal Contributing Editor
"And a regime that has lost its legitimacy will also lose its power" —George W. Bush to the United Nations September 19, 2002—The Bush regime, which was illegitimate from the get-go, could lose a serious chunk of its power on Nov. 5. That would set the stage for a series of bitter conflicts with a Democrat-controlled Congress which will make the current battles resemble a garden party. Democrats have a reasonable chance of winning at least 17 new House and six Senate seats this November. Nine of the House seats are sure winners. The Senate seats might be seized in Oregon, Maine, Arkansas, Texas, New Hampshire and North Carolina. They could win the new House seats in New Jersey, Connecticut, Arizona, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Georgia, California and Colorado, and retain the northern Maine House seat being vacated by Rep. John Baldacci, who is running for governor. This is the third election forecast so far from this writer. The number of sure-winners is now at nine, but so far the total of likely new House seats (not all guaranteed wins, mind you) is up to 17 seats. A few seats which are now impossible to predict could move to the sure-win category by late October. The sure-wins result from a new district in California through redistricting; two seats each in Georgia and North Carolina, partly through redistricting; Rep. Constance Morella's seat in Maryland; Rep. Nancy Johnson, Connecticut; the seat being vacated by Rep. Marge Roukema, New Jersey; a new district in Arizona; and retention of Rep. John Baldacci's seat in central and northern Maine. This would be sufficient for a net gain to return control of the House to the Democrats, but this review has not covered all possible upsets by either party. Oregon and Maine remain sure-wins for new Senate seats while Texas and Arkansas have been added as potential Democratic victories. New Hampshire and North Carolina could likewise be won if Democrats run competent campaigns. Tennessee is likely to remain in Republican hands. There is a caveat to these predictions. Defeat of any GOP incumbent could become reality with the combination of three factors: voters displeased with George W. Bush's domestic policies and the right wing influence in the federal government; the relationship of GOP incumbents or nominees to Team Bush; and the ability of a savvy, aggressive challenger to skillfully frame the issues. In some moderate states and congressional districts, voters were angry with Bush because of the Florida recount and subsequent administration actions long before Sept. 11. Of course, a crack in any of these three factors could swing the races in favor of the Republicans. For example, GOP Rep. John Sununu is trying to portray himself as a moderate in the New Hampshire Senate race and in North Carolina Democrat Erskine Bowles makes one wonder how strong a contender he will be despite built-in strategic advantages. Other factors which could help Democrats, especially in races where they are weak, include corporate scandals, unemployment, coattails in gubernatorial elections, the terrorist warning scandal, the Iraqi war and Bush's mismanagement of the Israeli crisis. Remember that former and current airlines employees have probably compared the responsiveness of both parties to their security concerns. Here's the rundown: House Sure Democrat Winners Arizona: Democrat Raul Grijalva will be the second Hispanic elected to Congress in this state and the first person to represent the state's newly-created 7th District which stretches from parts of Tucson to Yuma. Even the Republican establishment gave up on this district, the result of redistricting, a long time ago. "We have no chance at it," state Republican executive director Brian Murray told The New York Times. "We're not in play." Grijalva, of Tucson, faces Republican Ross Heib of Yuma. This election is tied for the top of the sure- winner's list with new districts in northern North Carolina and California. North Carolina: Democrat Brad Miller will be the first person to represent the new 13th district in northern North Carolina. He chaired the state Senate redistricting committee and the resulting remapping positioned Miller to win the Democratic primary on Sept. 10 (he represents Wake County, the most populous in the district) and to coast to victory in the general election on Nov. 5. The district is 54 percent Democratic, 17 percent Republican and the remaining voters are unaffiliated. 'Nuff said. North Carolina: Democratic attorney Chris Kouri this November will defeat incumbent GOP Rep. Robin Hayes, who is endangered by redistricting and the loss of textile jobs in his district near Charlotte. He cast the deciding vote last December for fast-track presidential trade authority which is considered detrimental to textile jobs. Kouri will make job retention and expansion his top issue, according to The Charlotte Observer. California: A new seat created by redistricting is expected to be won by a Democrat. New Jersey: The race to replace GOP Rep. Marge Roukema remains at the top of the sure- winner list for established congressional districts because state Assemblyman E. Scott Garrett became the Republican nominee on June 4. He is as much a right-winger as House Majority Whip Tom DeLay. Roukema was always considered a centrist which is how Democratic nominee Anne Sumers is presenting herself. Sumers pointed out that, while Republicans outnumber Democrats, more than half the district's registered voters are unaffiliated with either party. Also, many partisan Republicans probably despise Garrett because he challenged Roukema in the previous two primary races and came within a few thousand votes of beating her. Republican leaders in populous Bergen County have urged Garrett to cool his conservative rhetoric. Sumers is beginning to pick up support from moderate Republicans. The district covers the northern edge of New Jersey which stretches from the Hudson to the Delaware and includes portions of Bergen, Passaic, Sussex and Warren counties. Maryland: Democrat Christopher Van Hollen, Jr., a highly respected state senator, will defeat GOP Rep. Constance Morella, who would have had a lifetime job if it was not for the right wing's domination of her party. Van Hollen edged out Mark K. Shriver, a nephew of President Kennedy, in the Sept. 10 primary to become the Democratic nominee to take on Morella. Like every other House Republican, she has backed crucial legislation pushed by Bush and other right wing Republicans, notably last year's $1.35 trillion tax cut and the GOP prescription drug plan. She only received 52 percent of the vote in 2000, the demographics have changed to her disadvantage and, though that's enough to retire her, the Democrat- controlled state government remapped her district as the final nail in her political coffin. The district covers Montgomery County and other suburbs north of Washington, D.C. Connecticut: Democratic Rep. James H. Maloney is developing more than a slight registration edge against GOP Rep. Nancy L. Johnson, whose western Connecticut districts were combined. Maloney joked that Johnson was making the election easy for him when she voted to make tax cuts permanent. He has also been upstaging her on corporate reorganization issues, which is affecting a business in Johnson's end of the district. Also, more than 40 percent of the electorate is unaffiliated with either major party. Maine: The Democratic nominee, Michael Michaud, will likely win coattail votes from Rep. John Baldacci, the Democratic nominee for governor whom Michaud wants to succeed. Republican nominee Kevin L. Raye made poor primary showings in Lewiston and Bangor, the two most populous communities of the sprawling district in northern and central Maine. He won his primary by a narrow margin following a recount. Michaud has been regularly associating Raye with the right wing on domestic issues. Interestingly, Michaud is against abortion and Raye is pro-choice, but that issue will likely be a wash. What brought Michaud to the sure-winner list was Raye's announcement in early August that he supports Bush's trade policies—trade policies which are blamed for the kinds of job losses that have recently struck the district. Raye also received campaign contributions from a committee headed by Rep. Bill Thomas of California, an archconservative power in the House, and sought a seat on the Transporation Committee headed by Rep. Don Young of Alaska, another archconservative. If Raye is running as a moderate, he has a funny way of doing it. Georgia: Redistricting could add as many as four Democrats, but at least two Democrats, according to news reports. Democrat-Leaning Races Maryland: Democrat C.A. "Dutch" Ruppersberger, Baltimore County executive, has numerous advantages over Republican Helen Delich Bentley, who represented part of this district in the Baltimore area until 1995. Redistricting added more Democrats and minority members. Ruppersberger has solid party support while many state Republicans feel antagonized by Bentley. However, Ruppersberger has some baggage and, for a frontrunner in his primary, he did not exactly win by a landslide. New Hampshire: State Rep. Martha Fuller Clark's position has a strong chance to succeed Republican Rep. John Sununu, who is now running for the Senate. However, her chances became limited with the outcome of the Sept. 10 primary because Republicans nominated a moderate, Rep. Jeb Bradley. She kept Sununu's winning margin to 53 percent in 2000. Too unpredictable at this stage. Kentucky: GOP Rep. Anne Northup of the Louisville area was elected by narrow margins in the past; supported Bush on key legislation; and is being challenged by Democrat Jack Conway, a very savvy, aggressive and young challenger who continues to blast her record. Northup recently became engulfed in a federal funding scandal. Conway missed making the sure-winner list because redistricting left Northup with additional Republican voters. Connecticut: GOP Rep. Rob Simmons beat an incumbent Democrat by less than 1 percent to win his freshman term in 2000. Despite this margin, Simmons won this district in eastern Connecticut even though popular homeboy Sen. Joseph Lieberman—who lives close to the district's western boundary—was the vice presidential candidate. Al Gore and Lieberman won the district handily. Democrat Joe Courtney is running a strong campaign and is bringing in heavyweight Democrats to help him. Colorado: Democrat Mike Feeley has the edge in a new congressional district which primarily covers Denver's northern and eastern suburbs. His Republican rival, Bob Beauprez, even fought in court a state congressional remapping which ultimately created the district's configuration. Democrats were quick to point this out after Feeley and Beauprez won their respective primaries. The district is evenly divided between Democrats, Republicans and independents, which is bad news for Beauprez if independents and moderate Republicans regard Feeley as the more sensible candidate. The city itself has been represented by Democrats, mainly by the funny and clever Pat Schroeder, for nearly 30 years, and Boulder 30 miles to the west of Denver is now represented by a Democrat. Suburbs are often amenable to Democrats who are skilled at portraying themselves as centrists and Republican rivals as too conservative. This race has the potential to advance to the sure-winner list. Arizona: This race for the new 1st district barely makes the Democrat-leaning category at this stage. George Cordova unexpectedly defeated Steve Udall and five other contenders for the Democratic nomination and will face Republican Rick Renzi. Udall is a historic name in Arizona, and Steve Udall is longtime Apache County District Attorney. The district's voter registration slightly favors Democrats and Renzi has baggage weighing him down. The sprawling district, where Democrats have advantages in urban areas, includes Flagstaff and Prescott. Coattail Prospects Incumbent Republicans should be vulnerable in four districts in Illinois and Pennsylvania, but they are all challenged by weak Democratic nominees. However, those Democrats will likely get a lift because the Democratic candidates for governor in the fifth and sixth largest states are expected to win handily, if not by landslides. Democratic Gov. Gray Davis could provide coattail votes to some Democratic congressional candidates and, in Florida, a Democratic win for governor could contribute to Democratic congressional wins. This presents a clear opportunity for the Democratic House candidates to run strong campaigns in combination with the sturdy coattails of Rep. Rod Blagojevich in Illinois and former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell in Pennsylvania. These include the congressional seats held by Rep. Mark Kirk in Illinois and, in Pennsylvania, Rep. James Greenwood in Bucks County and part of Philadelphia, freshman Rep. Melissa Sue Hart in Pittsburgh's suburbs and archconservative Pat Toomey in the Allentown area. YUCCA MOUNTAIN Bush's flip-flop on building a nuclear waste dump in Nevada has antagonized people in that state. This could help reduce Republican congressional seats in Nevada. POSSIBLE WINS Pennsylvania: GOP Rep. George Gekas, who usually coasts to re-election victories, is suddenly battling tooth and nail against Democratic Rep. Tim Holden after their districts in central and northeastern Pennsylvania were merged through remapping. Voter registration favors Gekas, but Holden is running a strong campaign and will likely receive coattail votes from Ed Rendell, who is expected to be easily elected governor. In addition, Rendell's Republican opponent, Mike Fisher, is engulfed in controversy over the fate of Hershey Foods Corp. in Hershey, which is part of Fisher's natural base and is located in the combined district. Perhaps Holden will receive unexpected coattail votes in this area. New Jersey: Freshman Republican Rep. Mike Ferguson is being challenged by Tim Carden, who was nominated in the Democratic primary in early June. Ferguson won his first term in 2000 by a slim margin, succeeding GOPer Bob Franks and he regularly sided with the House Republican leadership on right wing legislation. However, a number of Republican voters were added to his district through redistricting. The district includes parts of Somerset and Hunterdon counties. West Virginia: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, who represents eastern West Virginia, is being challenged by a Democratic lawyer, Jim Humphries, in a rematch. The first time, she attacked him over a scandal with which he was associated. Capito is a top Democratic target after being elected by a narrow margin to her freshman term for a seat held by a Democrat for 20 years. She had coattails from Bush, who won the state. While Humphries might seem like a weak challenger, the state's two Democratic senators are providing a marked contrast to Capito's positions on issues. Connecticut: At this rate, Republican Rep. Christopher Shays will probably be re-elected, but maybe by a margin lower than the 58 percent that he won in 2000 against Democrat Stephanie Sanchez. In a second bid for his job, she is attacking Shays on domestic issues such as federal funds for education and the environment. Shays has supported Bush on key votes, but he is more independent than even the average moderate Republican. Delaware: GOP Rep. Mike Castle is being challenged by Democratic nominee Mike Miller, who has a troubled background. Castle is likewise a reliable Republican vote from a state with two Democratic senators and a Democratic governor. Just to include this in the possible-win category is a long stretch in wishful thinking. However, a really strong candidate could give Castle, who represents the entire state, a serious run for his money. Senate Oregon and Maine: Both remain in the sure-win column. Still, Democrat Bill Bradbury is far behind in fundraising, but GOP Sen. Gordon Smith is clearly too conservative for Oregon. Democrat Chellie Pingree in Maine is a successful fundraiser and, while she comes across as a one-issue candidate with prescription drug benefits, that issue is catching fire in a number of states and congressional districts, including Oregon. Pingree is challenging Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who while a moderate has voted with right-wingers on key issues. True, Collins has been doing well in the polls, but both Oregon and Maine have sustained stunning unemployment losses and excessive budget problems which can be blamed in part on Bush's tax cuts that were supported by both incumbents. Unless Pingree and Bradbury prove to be weak candidates, it just doesn't make sense that voters will stay with the Republicans Arkansas: Democrat Mark Pryor is expected to beat GOP Sen. Tim Hutchinson, who claimed to be a good Christian family man before divorcing his wife. Pryor has run a shrewd campaign partly by contrasting his family values with Hutchinson's family values. Polls, as just an indicator, have Pryor well ahead of Hutchinson. Texas: Democrats have an unexpected opportunity to seize the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Phil Gramm, one of the most conservative members of the Senate. This means that a moderate African-American could be added to the Senate. Democrat Ron Kirk was nominated to challenge Republican John Cornyn. Texas politics is obviously moving in the Democrats' direction, but the question is how much. Kirk could enjoy a possible surge of both black and Hispanic votes because he is running on a ticket with a Hispanic Democratic nominee for governor. Plus, Enron and other issues have probably weakened the Republicans. Kirk has strong crossover appeal. As the former mayor of Dallas, he was re- elected to a second term in 1999 with 74 percent of the vote. Tennessee: The retirement of popular GOP Sen. Fred Thompson leaves Democrats with an opportunity to win his seat in November, but that opportunity got far more limited last month when Republican Lamar Alexander, who is viewed as a moderate, was nominated with ease despite a bitter primary fight with archconservative Rep. Ed Bryant. Democrats have united behind nominee Rep. Bob Clement, a veteran member of Congress and son of a former governor. Alexander is a former governor who has become a perennial presidential candidate. If Bryant had been nominated, Clement would have had a much stronger chance of being elected. New Hampshire: Rep. John E. Sununu made an impression in the Sept. 10 Republican primary when he ousted veteran Sen. Bob Smith with about 55 percent of the vote. However, the issue in the Republican primary was not any issue but who has the best chance of beating Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, who has baggage of her own. However, this will be a contest over issues in which Sununu and Shaheen must compete for moderate votes. It will be an interesting test as to how far New Hampshire has evolved from a conservative bastion to a more moderate state; while Bush narrowly took New Hampshire in 2000, support for Gore and Nader constituted a narrow majority. Sununu's Achilles heel could be that he behaves like a robot and speaks in vague platitudes. Shaheen has a built-in advantage: The Smith-Sununu contest was so bitter that at least some Smith supporters will likely sit out the election, vote for Shaheen or back a conservative alternative if there is one. In fact, Shaheen's first post-Sept. 10 act was to appeal to Smith supporters to help her. Her next step was to announce the support of two independents in neighboring states, Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffords and Maine Gov. Angus King. North Carolina: I cringe as I predict this, but I sense that Democrat Erskine Bowles will prevail over Republican Elizabeth Dole. They both hope to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Jesse Helms. It is hard to believe that Bowles can win because he comes across as a geek and she is a very popular candidate who plays the role of charming Southern belle. However, North Carolina has evolved into a more moderate state and in fact Dole is viewed as a centrist, especially in comparison to her more conservative primary opponents. Yet we need to look at the numbers. Total turnout for the Sept. 10 Democratic primary was more than 200,000 above the Republican primary, 419,000 voters vs. 224,000 voters. In addition, thousands of North Carolinians have lost their jobs, mostly in the textile industry in recent years, while Dole and her sponsor, Bush, have been closely linked to corporate scandals. Who do you think they'll vote for? Even Howdy Doody—to whom Bowles can be compared—can automatically win their votes. Finally, Dole never had to debate her opponents and a strong Democratic opponent can easily paint Dole into a corner over domestic issues. Already, Dole favors Bush's wealthy- friendly tax cuts and presidential fast- track trade negotiating authority which is blamed for many of the state's job losses. Colorado and New Mexico: Both states have potential, however slight, for capture of these GOP-held seats. The Colorado race could be close, though Sen. Wayne Allard stands a good chance of being re-elected. Sen. Pete Domenici is popular and has staying power, but New Mexicans voted for Al Gore in 2000. Bruce S. Ticker publishes The Bush Syndrome. Download a printable version. For a free copy of Adobe Acrobat Reader, click here. The views expressed herein are the writers' own and do not necessarily reflect those of Online Journal. Email [EMAIL PROTECTED] Copyright © 1998-2002 Online Journal™. 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