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Rival Reformers Head Into Runoff for Serbian Presidency September 30, 2002 By DANIEL SIMPSON BELGRADE, Serbia, Sept. 29 - President Vojislav Kostunica of Yugoslavia, a moderate nationalist, came out ahead today in the first round of the election for the Serbian presidency, preliminary results indicated. Mr. Kostunica won 31.3 percent of the vote, with Miroljub Labus, a pro-Western economist, coming in second, with 27.8 percent, according to projections from the Center for Free Elections and Democracy, in Belgrade, which monitored the balloting. The two rival reformers from the coalition that ousted Slobodan Milosevic two years ago will face each other in a runoff, with Mr. Kostunica the clear favorite to win. But Vojislav Seselj, a nationalist firebrand, made a surprisingly strong showing, after an endorsement by Mr. Milosevic from his jail cell in The Hague, where he is facing genocide charges before a United Nations war crimes tribunal. Mr. Seselj won 22.5 percent, according to the preliminary results, apparently picking up support from the people most disillusioned with the government's free market reforms, which have yet to make them better off. Mr. Labus, the architect of Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic's economic reform program, will be hard pressed to win them over to his side before the Oct. 13 runoff. "Kostunica succeeded in turning this election into a referendum about Djindjic," said Ognjen Pribicevic, a political analyst in Belgrade. "People expected change overnight, but today many are worse off than they were under Milosevic and they are unhappy about corruption and organized crime." Mr. Kostunica, who has been president of Yugoslavia since Mr. Milosevic's ouster, is seeking a new job because the federation comprising Serbia and Montenegro will be dissolved later this year. If he wins the runoff, a certainty according to most polls, the conflict between him and Mr. Djindjic, his chief rival, is expected to intensify. The departing Serbian president, Milan Milutinovic, has been almost invisible for the past two years because he is to face a war crimes trial alongside Mr. Milosevic when he leaves office. But Mr. Kostunica is expected to use the position to force a general election by persuading some of the 17 parties in the governing coalition to desert Mr. Djindjic. The bitter power struggle between the two camps dominates political life to such an extent that voters could be forgiven for thinking that was the only issue. But it conceals a basic dispute about the pace and nature of reforms needed to make Serbia fit for eventual membership of the European Union. Mr. Labus and Mr. Djindjic want to push ahead with economic reforms to win Western friends and attract foreign investment. Mr. Kostunica puts greater emphasis on the need for constitutional reforms to establish the rule of law and says the poor should be shielded from radical economic changes for now. But many people in Serbia, where monthly salaries average just $150, have little faith in either side's promises, and a low turnout could thwart Mr. Kostunica's anticipated second-round victory. Just 55 percent of the electorate voted today. If this figure dips below 50 percent for the runoff, the election will be annulled, and a new one could be put off for months. That would help Mr. Djindjic, who is personally unpopular with voters and eager to postpone a general election for as long as possible. But his battle with Mr. Kostunica has already brought normal government business to a virtual standstill, and continued political uncertainty is only likely to increase voter apathy and delay economic recovery. "Political stability is the sine qua non for economic reform and investment from abroad," said Srbobran Brankovic, director of the Medium Index Gallup International polling institute. "A failed election would plunge Serbia into deep political crisis." http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/30/international/europe/30SERB.html?ex=1034385216&ei=1&en=f24ece399b4eff85 HOW TO ADVERTISE --------------------------------- For information on advertising in e-mail newsletters or other creative advertising opportunities with The New York Times on the Web, please contact [EMAIL PROTECTED] or visit our online media kit at http://www.nytimes.com/adinfo For general information about NYTimes.com, write to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Copyright 2002 The New York Times Company <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! 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