-Caveat Lector-
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--- Begin Message --- -Caveat Lector- When, Exactly, Does the Party End?
22 Oct 2002
summary
It is probably simplistic to equate the coming peak in petroleum production with the end of industrialism. There are at least six major linked events that could be considered markers of the end of the interval of cheap energy. Two of them have already happened:
1. The peak in global per-capita energy production. According to White's Law, "culture evolves as the amount of energy harnessed per capita per year is increased, or as the efficiency of the instrumental means of putting energy to work is increased." During the period from 1945 to 1973, world energy production per capita grew at 3.24 percent per year. From 1973 to 1979, growth slowed to .64 percent per year. Since 1979, energy production per capita has declined at an average rate of .33 percent per year. Thus the global peak in global per-capita energy production occurred in 1979. Since then, for the world as a whole, population growth has outpaced growth in energy production. 2. The peak in global net energy. Throughout the past decade or so, more total energy has continued to be produced each year, on average, from all sources combined; but the amount of energy spent in obtaining energy has increased at a faster pace. This is especially true for oil, coal, and natural gas, for which net yields are falling precipitously: it requires more drilling effort to obtain a given quantity of gas or oil now than it did only a few years ago, and more mining effort to obtain the same amount of coal. The peak in the total net energy available annually worldwide has almost certainly already passed, but it is unclear exactly when: complex calculations are involved and no official agency has bothered to undertake them. A good guess would be that the net-energy peak occurred between 1985 and 1995. 3. The peak in global oil extraction. As discussed in chapter 3, this will probably happen between 2006 and 2015. The exact year is uncertain, and the event may be masked or altered by economic factors. We will know only in retrospect exactly when the peak has come and gone. 4. The global peak in gross energy production from all sources. This is likely to coincide closely with the oil-extraction peak. 5. The energy-led collapse of the global economy. Even if an economic collapse occurs first for other reasons (as fallout from the bursting of the global stock-market bubble, war in the Middle East, or the implosion of more scandal-ridden American corporations), energy constraints will eventually take their own hit on the global financial system. Energy scarcity will cause a recession of a new kind -- one from which anything other than a temporary, partial recovery will be impossible. We humans may, if we are intelligent and deliberate, create a different kind of economy in the future, building steady-state, low-energy, sustainable societies characterized by high artistic, spiritual, and intellectual achievements. But the industrial-growth global economy that we are familiar with will be gone forever. The timing of this event will again depend upon that of the petroleum production peak. 6. The collapse of the electricity grids. This may occur at somewhat different times, and at different rates, in various nations and regions, depending on the robustness of the grids themselves, on the resource basis of the generation infrastructure (whether coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, etc.), and on the continued local availability of particular fuels. For example, the peak in natural-gas production in North America may hasten grid failure in this part of the world. But everywhere, except in regions where electrical power is already supplied mostly from renewable sources (and such places are rare), the grids are extremely vulnerable; given the time and the investment levels needed to switch to renewable sources of electricity on a large scale, even if extraordinary efforts are undertaken now the electrical generation and distribution systems on which industrial societies depend may ultimately be unsustainable. If and when they come down for good, it's lights out. The party will truly be over. *
Sidebar from: THE PARTY'S OVER: OIL, WAR AND THE FATE OF INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES [Due out in March from New Society publishers, foreword by Colin Campbell]
<A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply.Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html <A HREF="http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html">Archives of [EMAIL PROTECTED]</A>
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