-Caveat Lector-

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chatterbox
Gossip, speculation, and scuttlebutt about politics.



Dick Cheney, Dove
More on why Bush père's defense secretary didn't want to go to Baghdad.
By Timothy Noah
Posted Wednesday, October 16, 2002, at 4:53 PM PT

Violating a core precept of journalism, Chatterbox put the most

interesting part of yesterday's item at the bottom. It was a Dick Cheney quote that 
Patrick
Tyler included in a New York Times story published April 13, 1991, a little more than a
month after the shooting stopped in the Gulf war. The quote was interesting because it
examined hard questions about overthrowing Saddam Hussein that James Fallows
http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2002/11/fallows.htm
addresses in the November Atlantic Monthly—questions that Cheney (then defense
secretary, now vice president) no longer shows the slightest interest in as the nation
prepares to go to war with Iraq once again. Violating another core precept of 
journalism,
Chatterbox will repeat the Cheney quote in full:

If you're going to go in and try to topple Saddam Hussein, you have to go to Baghdad. 
Once
you've got Baghdad, it's not clear what you do with it. It's not clear what kind of
government you would put in place of the one that's currently there now. Is it going 
to be a
Shia regime, a Sunni regime or a Kurdish regime? Or one that tilts toward the 
Baathists, or
one that tilts toward the Islamic fundamentalists? How much credibility is that 
government
going to have if it's set up by the United States military when it's there? How long 
does the
United States military have to stay to protect the people that sign on for that 
government,
and what happens to it once we leave?

Now, you might argue that Cheney was just being a loyal Cabinet member, advancing
arguments of his commander in chief that he didn't particularly agree with. The 
trouble with
this interpretation is that Cheney expressed similar sentiments five years later in a 
Gulf War
documentary produced for PBS's Frontline. Describing the decision to end the war on 
Feb.
27, 1991—a cease-fire took effect the next day, and for the most part the United States
stuck with it —Cheney said:

A: [T]here was no sense, I don't believe on the part of any of us who were there that 
day
that there was any disagreement with this approach. There might have been some 
different
views down further in the ranks—General McCaffrey and the guys in the 24th fought a
major engagement the day after the cease- fire obviously against a brigade of Iraqi
Republican Guard. But there was no sense at that time that there was any different 
point of
view that we ought to keep the conflict going much longer. …

Q: You were comfortable personally with this?

A: I was.

[…]

[A few weeks later, when the uprisings occurred among the Shi'a in the South and the
Kurds in the North,] I was not an enthusiast about getting U.S. forces and going into 
Iraq.
We were there in the southern part of Iraq to the extent we needed to be there to 
defeat
his forces and to get him out of Kuwait, but the idea of going into Baghdad, for 
example, or
trying to topple the regime wasn't anything I was enthusiastic about. I felt there was 
a real
danger here that you would get bogged down in a long drawn-out conflict, that this was 
a
dangerous, difficult part of the world; if you recall we were all worried about the 
possibility
of Iraq coming apart, the Iranians restarting the conflict that they'd had in the 
eight-year
bloody war with the Iranians and the Iraqis over eastern Iraq. We had concerns about 
the
Kurds in the north, the Turks get very nervous every time we start to talk about an
independent Kurdistan.

Plus there was the notion that you were going to set yourself a new war aim that we 
hadn't
talked to anybody about. That you hadn't gotten Congress to approve, hadn't talked to 
the
American people about. You're going to find yourself in a situation where you've 
redefined
your war aims and now set up a new war aim that in effect would detract from the
enormous success you just had. What we set out to do was to liberate Kuwait and to
destroy his offensive capability, that's what I said repeatedly in my public 
statements. That
was the mission I was given by the President. That's what we did. Now you can say, 
well,
you should have gone to Baghdad and gotten Saddam. I don't think so. [Italics
Chatterbox's.] I think if we had done that we would have been bogged down there for a
very long period of time with the real possibility we might not have succeeded.

In the 1996 interview, Cheney actually managed to out-dove today's liberals who oppose
going to war (by now, you should remember, Cheney was chairman of Halliburton, an oil-
drilling company that did extensive business in the Islamic world) by suggesting that
Saddam's ouster would have little beneficial effect:

[I]f Saddam wasn't there, his successor probably wouldn't be notably friendlier to the
United States than he is. I also look at that part of the world as of vital interest 
to the United
States; for the next hundred years it's going to be the world's supply of oil. We've 
got a lot
of friends in the region. We're always going to have to be involved there. Maybe it's 
part of
our national character, you know, we like to have these problems nice and neatly 
wrapped
up, put a ribbon around it. You deploy a force, you win the war, and the problem goes
away, and it doesn't work that way in the Middle East; it never has and isn't likely 
to in my
lifetime [italics Chatterbox's].

Now, Chatterbox won't dispute that life has changed in many ways since 1991. Back 
then, it
seemed reasonable to assume that Saddam had no future in Iraq. By 1996, though, it was
clear that Saddam had consolidated his power. He hadn't yet expelled the U.N. weapons
inspectors—that occurred two years later—but he wasn't being especially cooperative,
either. Why was invading Iraq at the bottom of Cheney's agenda back then, but at the 
top
of it now?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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