-Caveat Lector-
-----Original Message-----
From: Murray Kahl [mailto:kahl1@;gate.net]
Sent: Wednesday, October 23, 2002 8:15 PM
To: Recipient list suppressed
Subject: Israel Prepared for Pre-emption with Neutron Weapons
Israel Prepared for Pre-emption with Neutron Weapons
Almost went to nuclear war in late February
By Professor M. Kahl
In his October 8, 2002, speech to the nation illuminating the urgent
imperative for taking on Saddam Hussein, President Bush for the first time
raised the possibility of a preemptive strike by Iraq while the U.S. was
still gearing up for the forthcoming confrontation. "An Iraqi regime faced
with its own demise may attempt cruel and desperate measures," the President
stated. Indeed, Iraq is accelerating its war preparations in anticipation
for what Baghdad is convinced to be an inevitable US onslaught.
The possibility of an Iraqi preemptive strike against Israel in order to
forestall a U.S. strike is not an abstract notion, because - as revealed in
Yossef Bodansky's new and deeply insightful book The High Cost of Peace -
Iraq has already demonstrated its penchant for such dangerous provocations.
Indeed, from its very first days in office, the Bush Administration has been
tested by Saddam Hussein with risky brinkmanship. Significantly, these Iraqi
upsurges were not only in the context of the long standing Saddam-Arafat
treaty according to which Iraq will launch a major war against Israel in
order to save the Palestinians - with Saddam assuming in the process the
long-coveted position of Leader of the Arab World - but as an Iraqi
demonstration of defiance and hostility to the new Administration. In mid
February 2001, Baghdad put the Bush Administration to its first major test -
bringing the Middle East to the verge of a major and potentially nuclear
war, while setting the stage for the still escalating U.S. crisis with Iraq.
Bodansky explained:
On February 16, in retaliation for Iraq's growing audacity and effectiveness
in challenging the enforcement of the no-fly zone, U.S. and U.K. aircraft
bombed six Iraqi radar posts, command posts, and fiber-optics communications
sites relatively close to Baghdad. The next day, Saddam ordered his armed
forces to assume wartime readiness. The first units to react were the six
divisions in western Iraq, which now moved farther westward toward the
Jordanian and Syrian borders. At the same time, intense activities that
could be interpreted as preparations for launching ballistic missiles were
detected in bases throughout western and southern Iraq. U.S. and Israeli
intelligence agreed that the Iraqis were preparing for ballistic- missile
strikes against Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, with the inclination to
use any retaliation as the excuse for launching an all-out war against
Israel. With Riyadh reluctant to permit the American use of Saudi bases in
connection with hostilities involving Israel, the IDF, with some help from
U.S. forces in Turkey, would have to bear the brunt of the anticipated
confrontation. Consequently, Israeli air-defense units, along with the U.S.
Patriot units still in preparation, were deployed to emergency positions.
The Aegis-class cruiser USS Porter sailed off the southern coast of Israel,
covering the theater with its radar.
By February 22, Iraqi SSM units were deployed and on the move throughout the
western desert capable of launching their first missiles in less than
twenty-four hours. Concurrently, HizbAllah forces in southern Lebanon went
on alert following instructions from Damascus. The intense communications
between Arafat, Saddam, and Bashar detected by Israeli and U.S. intelligence
added to the growing apprehension.
That evening, analysts in both Washington and Jerusalem concluded that all
was ready for a regional war short of the final "Go" from Saddam Hussein.
Intelligence services and governments in Western Europe must have shared
this impression. Just as the high-level officials in Washington and
Jerusalem were reaching agreement about the situation in Iraq and the
appropriate response, the French government, and reportedly also the
British, warned Saddam's inner circle through clandestine emergency channels
of communication that they knew for a fact that Israel was about to use
neutron weapons against the Iraqi expeditionary forces and the suspected
missile sites if the movement toward war was not stopped.
With Washington unaware of the European warnings, two U.S. strike formations
took off one from the Incirlik base in Turkey, the other from a Sixth Fleet
carrier and headed toward western Iraq. Large formations of the Israeli Air
Force were also in the air off the Syrian coast ready to head toward Iraq
should Iraqi missiles fall on Israel. The first American formations were
engaged in the Mosul area by Iraqi air-defense units, which launched some
thirty-five SAMs and heavy anti-aircraft barrages. The U.S. aircraft
counterattacked with missiles and bombs causing negligible damage because of
the quality of the Iraqi camouflage and concealment.
By now, however, the Iraqi forces throughout the area were visibly standing
down, in a way that was noticed by all possible intelligence collection
systems. It seemed that Saddam had decided not to ignore the French warning
and risk an Israeli nuclear strike.
Subsequently, as described in The High Cost of Peace, Baghdad had not given
up its commitment to war. On February 27, Saddam told a conference of Iraq's
senior air-defense officers (now responsible for Iraq's ballistic missiles,
in order to circumvent U.N. sanctions) and officials of the Atomic Energy
Commission that Iraq was committed to escalating the confrontation
throughout the Middle East. "We will deliver terrible strikes on the United
States and cause the enemy to pay a heavy price, if it dares to continue
attacking Iraq. Iraq will not permit the enemy to harm any other part of the
Arab Nation," the Iraqi media quoted Saddam as saying. Concurrently, Iraq
embarked on a still unfolding intense military build-up aimed to better
prepare Iraq for the inevitable confrontation with the US and Israel. The
forthcoming war with Iraq is therefore a timely culmination of a strategic
dynamics virtually as old as the Bush Administration.
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