-Caveat Lector-

>From http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/2388339.stm

Saturday, 2 November, 2002, 00:04 GMT
Killer flu 'on the way'


A gene shift could make flu more powerful

Experts say governments across Europe need to plan for a virulent flu outbreak that 
could
claim hundreds of thousands of lives.

Although the last two winters have brought only mild strains of flu to the UK, the 
viruses are
constantly mutating and scientists say it is only a matter of time before a powerful 
strain
emerges.


Whatever
knowledge, technology and skills we develop, eventually it's the policy makers and the
politicians that decide what is going to happen

Professor Albert
Osterhaus, Erasmus University
While it may not be as damaging as the 1918 "Spanish flu" that killed tens of millions 
in
Europe alone, they say that the continent is not ready to cope with another pandemic.

This "superflu" is caused by an influenza virus, but its fatality rate is more 
reminiscent of
lethal haemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola.

Previous versions, including the Spanish flu, had mutated into a form which the human
immune system could not tackle.

It is possible that, at any time, the virus could mutate again and produce a strain 
that could
share many of these lethal genetic characteristics.

Strategies

Virologists from throughout Europe are meeting in Malta this week to discuss the best
strategy for first predicting, and then handling a major outbreak.

Albert Osterhaus, a professor of virology at Erasmus Univeristy in Rotterdam, said:
"Whatever knowledge, technology and skills we develop, eventually it's the policy 
makers
and the politicians that decide what is going to happen."


European citizens will
expect everything possible to have been done at every level of public authority

Robert Coleman,
European Commission
Some experts have been looking at the genetic structure of the virus which caused the 
1918
pandemic, as well as a serious outbreak in Hong Kong in 1997 for clues which may help
doctors combat such an outbreak.

There were three flu pandemics in the last century, in 1918, 1957 and 1968.

Even though the 1957 and 1968 outbreaks were less severe than the Spanish flu, they 
still
accounted for 40m deaths between them.

Overdue attack

Researchers suggest that an approximate 30 year cycle between pandemics means we are
well overdue for another one.

Robert Coleman, the director general of health and consumer protection at the European
Commission, said: "The action we take now will determine how well we combat the next
major influenza threat we will face.

"European citizens will expect everything possible to have been done at every level of 
public
authority.

"It will be several months at least after the start of the pandemic before a vaccine is
available.

"Antiviral drugs could help during this period, but stockpiles would need to be in 
place well
in advance. This is not yet the case."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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