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At 09:06 AM 8/10/2000 -0400, David Lesher wrote:
> X-URL:
http://www10.nytimes.com/library/world/africa/081000somalia-govern.html
>
> So it may come as a surprise that business people in Mogadishu,
> the wrecked and lawless capital, are begging for a government.
> They would love to be taxed and would gladly let politicians
> meddle at least a bit in their affairs.
I have been following this peace conference, and I do not find it very
worrying.
If some of these groups were saying "I want a government, and I want it so
much I am prepared to sacrifice something important", then there would be
some danger that the peace conference might produce a government.
Instead they are saying "It is vital to the interests of Somalia that
someone else be sacrificed to benefit me, and we need a government in order
to force these selfish people to make the necessary sacrifices to help me
carry out my benevolent intentions."
While most people at the peace conference are in favor of some sort of
government, they are in favor of very different governments, so there is
little likelihood they will agree.
Each of the big clans wants a powerful government dominated by their
particular clan. (Hence the numerous and passionate disputes as to where
the new capital shall be.) Each of the business groups wants a limited
government, limited to giving them special monopolistic privileges, but no
similar privileges to any other business group "I am in favor of free
markets, except that my business is a special case". Each of the small
clans wants a limited government, limited to restraining the power of the
big clans.
And so on and so forth.
The conference has become a bid for power by the big clans at the expense
of everyone else. But the big clans will not agree amongst themselves, and
if they did, they would still not have the power to make the government
they created stick. As soon as it becomes obvious to all the other
interest groups that they are screwed, the shit will hit the fan.
--digsig
James A. Donald
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